Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KATHMANDU105
2009-02-09 10:17:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Kathmandu
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR A/S BOUCHER'S VISIT TO NEPAL

Tags:  PREL PGOV PTER EAID PREF PHUM CH BT NP 
pdf how-to read a cable
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000105 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER EAID PREF PHUM CH BT NP
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR A/S BOUCHER'S VISIT TO NEPAL

Introduction
------------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000105

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER EAID PREF PHUM CH BT NP
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR A/S BOUCHER'S VISIT TO NEPAL

Introduction
--------------


1. (SBU) U.S. Mission Kathmandu warmly welcomes you to
Nepal. Your visit will be the highest-level visit by a U.S.
official since the Maoists won a plurality in the Constituent
Assembly (CA) election in April 2008 and formed a coalition
government in August.

Bilateral Relations
--------------


2. (SBU) Bilateral relations have been better than expected
given the Maoists' history of anti-U.S. rhetoric and the
continued listing of the party on the U.S. terrorist
exclusion and specially designated nationals lists. The
Government of Nepal (GON) -- despite its frequent
denunciation of international "interference" -- has expressed
eagerness for the U.S. to maintain, if not increase, its
assistance and engagement in Nepal. The Maoist Defense
Minister has frequently expressed his interest in greater
military-to-military cooperation. In September, the Ministry
of Finance signed the annual agreement to obligate U.S.
foreign assistance to Nepal. On January 23, the Deputy Chief
of Mission and the Finance Secretary signed a Letter of
Agreement covering long-term law enforcement assistance worth
more than USD 2.5 million to the Home Ministry, Nepal Police,
and Armed Police Force.

Constituent Assembly
--------------


3. (SBU) The 595-member CA has a dual mandate to draft a new
constitution and function as a legislature. It has made
minimal progress in either role. The first sitting of the CA
occurred more than one month after the election. The CA
elected the President, Vice President, and CA Chairman in
July, and the CA Vice Chairman only in November. In
November, the CA also set up its rules of procedure and
passed the budget for the fiscal year that began in July.
Various political parties, including the Madhesi parties and
the Nepali Congress (NC),frequently disrupt proceedings to
force the CA and GON to accept their demands. The CA took
almost seven months to form constitutional and legislative
committees, and another month to select committee chairmen.

On January 13, the CA elected Madhav Kumar Nepal, the former
chief of the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist
Leninist (UML),to head the principal drafting committee and
oversee the 13 other constitutional committees. The CA then
went on recess from January 19, reportedly for a month and a
half but with no confirmed date to reconvene.

By-Elections
--------------


4. (SBU) By-elections in six constituencies scheduled for
April 10 -- one year to the day after the original CA
election -- will bring the CA to its full membership of 601.
Five of the by-elections will fill seats relinquished by CA
members who won in more than one constituency: Kanchanpur in
the far west, Rolpa and Kaski in the midwestern and western
hills respectively, and two constituencies in Morang in the
eastern Terai. Dhanusa, in the central Terai, will hold a
by-election to fill the seat that Ram Baran Yadav vacated to
become President. Maoists won the first time around in Rolpa
and Kaski. Re-winning these seats and picking up additional
seats would indicate de facto acceptance if not outright
approval of the current government. International
organizations are unlikely to send election monitors for the
by-elections, but resident diplomatic missions, INGOs already
present in Nepal, and local NGOs plan to observe at the
polling stations. The U.S. Mission intends to send teams to
each of the six constituencies, logistics and security
permitting.

Security Situation
--------------

KATHMANDU 00000105 002 OF 003




5. (SBU) The law and order situation in Nepal, especially in
the Terai, continues to worsen. In October 2008, the GON
formed a team consisting of the Maoist Peace and
Reconstruction Minister and two Madhesi cabinet ministers to
negotiate with armed groups. As of February, the team has
had little luck in initiating talks with the most influential
armed leaders, and few observers are hopeful that the talks
will succeed. The Maoist-affiliated youth wing, which in
late January added "Democratic" to its moniker to become the
Young Communist Democratic League (YCDL),continues to engage
in illegal activities such as threats, extortion and
extra-judicial killings, as well as clashes with the police
and other party-affiliated youth wings. These other groups
include the UML's Youth Force.

Political Bickering
--------------


6. (SBU) The GON has made little progress on the wider peace
process, and bickering within and among the political parties
has not helped matters. The opposition NC party complains
about the Maoists' lack of implementation of previous
agreements, especially returning seized land and reigning in
the YCDL, and other parties even within the ruling coalition
share the complaints. Nevertheless, the NC tends to appear
as obstructionist more often than not. The three main
Terai-based parties -- the Madhesi People's Rights Forum, the
Terai-Madhes Democratic Party, and the Sadbhavana Party --
have failed to reassemble their short-lived coalition which
collapsed at the time of the CA election.

Army Integration
--------------


7. (SBU) The so-called "Army Integration Special Committee"
(AISC),which Article 146 of Nepal's interim constitution
empowers to supervise, integrate, and rehabilitate former
Maoist combatants, had a delayed beginning. After a false
start in October on the eve of UN Secretary General Ban
Ki-moon's visit, the committee had its first session, with NC
participation, on January 16 and its second on February 5.
The AISC is slated to take over some of the functions of the
United Nations Mission to Nepal (UNMIN),which itself
received an extension in late January until July 2009.

Bhutanese and Tibetan Refugees
--------------


8. (SBU) Bhutanese refugee resettlement is well under way
with more than 9,500 departures to third countries, including
8,626 to the U.S. as of February 5. Approximately 56,000
additional Bhutanese refugees have expressed valid interest
in resettling. The GON is considering a U.S. offer to
resettle 5,000 Tibetan refugees from Nepal. The UN refugee
agency (UNHCR) made a concurrent offer to assist in the
registration of Tibetan refugees in Nepal, similar to the
joint registration the GON and UNHCR undertook for Bhutanese
refugees. A countrywide registration program, coupled with
the issuance of new identification cards, is essential both
for resettlement and as a first step to enable Tibetans, some
of whom have had the right to live in Nepal for the past 50
years, the right also to work, own property, own a business,
travel, and register births, marriages, and deaths. The GON
may have difficulty making a decision on resettlement and
initially agreed to registration, but then backed away,
presumably because of pressure from the Chinese government.

Other Challenges
--------------


9. (SBU) The GON, despite its reliance on foreign aid,
remains sensitive to international "interference" as threats
to Nepal's sovereignty, particularly from India, China, and
the U.S. Political squabbling and inefficient bureaucracy
hinder movement at all levels; the Letter of Agreement for
law enforcement assistance took ten months of at times

KATHMANDU 00000105 003 OF 003


contentious talks to finalize. Further complicating progress
towards peace are load-shedding -- scheduled blackouts that
reached a peak of 16 hours per day in January -- and
"bandhs," the preferred method of protest that force the
closure of the capital city, major highways, and border
region on a regular basis. The GON has yet seriously to
tackle either issue.

Conclusion
--------------


10. (SBU) You may wish to stress to the government and
political leaders you meet that the United States fully
supports Nepal's transition to a peaceful, democratic state.
You may further choose to emphasize that while the U.S. is
encouraged by developments with the CA committees, the
selection of a date for by-elections, and the signing of the
recent Letter of Agreement, we are disappointed that the pace
and progress of furthering Nepal's fragile peace process has
been so slow.
BERRY