BALOCHISTAN: AALI BUGTI NAMED SARDAR OF THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KARACHI 000173


E.O. 12958: DECL: May 19, 2019
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: BALOCHISTAN: AALI BUGTI NAMED SARDAR OF THE
BUGTI TRIBE

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

Classified by Stephen G. Fakan, Consul General, Reasons:
1.4 b and d.


1. (SBU) Summary: After three years of a leadership
vacuum, the Bugti tribe has a new leader. Aali Bugti,
the grandson of the late Nawab Akber Bugti, returned to
Dera Bugti after three years of exile and was named
Sardar in a ceremony held May 19. His return and
ascendancy to leadership of the tribe are controversial
and may lead to increased fighting among clan factions of
the Bugti tribe. End summary.


2. (SBU) Since the killing of Nawab Akber Bugti by the
Pakistani army in 2006, the Bugti tribe has lacked a
sardar (tribal chief). Based upon tribal tradition, the
eldest surviving son assumes the role of sardar upon the
death of the father. With Nawab AkberQs eldest son dead,
however, Aali Bugti is a legitimate claimant under tribal
law to be sardar of the Bugtis. (Note: Nawab Akber
Bugti had hoped another grandson Bramdagh Bugti, would
succeed him, but Nawab Akber was killed before he could
gain the support of the clan elders for his choice. End
note.)


3. (SBU) Aali Bugti remained with his grandfather Nawab
Akber Bugti until shortly before the leaderQs death. He
then spent the next three years in exile and only
returned to Dera Bugti on May 1 with the support of the
GOP and the army. He was named Sardar at a tribal
gathering on May 19, which was attended by only three out
of five chiefs of the Bugti clans and minor members of
the tribe. Conspicuously absent were two clan chiefs and
members of the Nawab AkterQs family, and although
tradition stipulates attendance by all clan chiefs and
members of the NawabQs family to legitimize the
proceedings, the ceremony continued without them, albeit
with some controversy.


4. (SBU) Traditionally, the proceedings Q called a
dastarbandi - begin when a member of the Syed clan (who
are reputed to be descendants of the prophet Ali) start
the wrappings of a turban around the head of the
designated successor. To signify their support for the
new sardar, the wrapping of the turban is then completed
by the other clan elders. However, Pir Suri Mir Hassan,
the named representative of the Syed clan and who by
tradition is also supposed to be present, was kidnapped
on May 12, further casting doubt on the legitimacy of
AaliQs dastarbandi.


5. (SBU) Without Pir Suri available to begin the
dastarbandi process, it is unlikely that Aali will be
viewed by all clans as a legitimate leader. His
acceptance by the clans is further complicated by his
apparent affiliations with the GOP, and particularly with
the army. About half of the clans of the Bugti tribe
publicly support Aali; they view him as the rightful
leader, regardless of whether or not he is supported by
GOP. Others are withholding their support to highlight
their disaffection with GOP policies towards Balochistan.


6. (C) Jamil Akber Bugti, son of Nawab Akber Bugti and
uncle of Aali, told post he will never support Aali
because of his association with those forces that killed
his father. Baloch nationalists describe AaliQs return
to Dera Bugti as a conspiracy against the Baloch and a
plan by the GOP and army to create more fractures within
the Bugti tribe. Sardar Akhtar Jan Mengal, President of
the Balochistan National Party Q Mengal (BNP-M) says the
government is trying to foment a civil war in
Balochistan. He believes AaliQs presence in Sui will
intensify disputes rather than lead to peace.


7. (C) Others view the arrival of Aali as a positive
step. Rahat Malik, a businessman and political analyst,
believes that neither the government nor the Bugti tribe
alone can improve the situation in Dera Bugti. A
tradeoff is needed in the area, and Malik believes AaliQs
presence will help promote compromise and reduce the risk
of bloodshed. Naseer Ahmed Bugti, a journalist, believes
AaliQs return might be the Qspark of hopeQ needed by
people living in Dera Bugti. He went on to state,
however, that without the presence of Pir Suri Mir
Hassan, tribal code will not recognize the announcement
of a new Sardar. Declaring Aali Bugti as a Sardar on May
19, without the formal ceremony, will be controversial.


8. (SBU) Comment: Opinions vary, but some Baloch
believe the return of Aali to Dera Bugti is an effort by
the GOP to regain some control in the region, and to
provoke internal conflict within the already fractious
Bugti tribe. Army efforts to organize groups of anti-
Baloch nationalists to provide security for government
installations further increase tensions between clans
within the tribe. It remains to be seen how much
influence Aali Bugti will wield and his controversial May
19 ascension to Sardar may leave him ineffective and
unable to bring stability to Dera Bugti.


FAKAN