BALOCHISTAN - WHAT MAY BE BEHIND THE CURRENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 KARACHI 000145

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER MARR PK
SUBJECT: BALOCHISTAN - WHAT MAY BE BEHIND THE CURRENT
UNREST AND POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR USG SHIPMENTS

REF: A. KARACHI 131

B. KARACHI 111

C. KARACHI 73

D. KARACHI 34

E. 08 KARACHI 463

F. 08 KARACHI 338

G. 08 KARACHI 339

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY CONSUL GENERAL STEPHEN FAKAN FOR REASONS 1
.4 b and d.

Summary:
--------------


1. (C) Often violent unrest over the killing of three Baloch
leaders continued in Balochistan over the past week.
Nationalist political parties led protest rallies and
militant nationalist groups claimed credit for violence,
including a rocket attack on a Frontier Corps (FC) camp.
Some nationalist leaders rejected a GOP call for an internal
investigation into the killings, calling instead for a UN
inquiry. The protests and violence occurred throughout the
Baloch areas of the province, even in normally calm coastal
districts. Baloch National Party ) Mengal (BNP-M) and
National Party (NP) leaders refused to participate in a peace
meeting called by Chief Minister, Mohammad Aslam Khan Raisani
on April 19. BNP-M announced plans for a "Long March" across
the province and appears to be attempting to rise to the
forefront of the protest movement. USG supply shipments,
which cross Mengal-dominated Khudzar district, have been
vulnerable to temporary disruptions caused by civil unrest in
the province.


2. (C) In Pakistan,s Senate, Minister of Interior Rehman
Malik made controversial claims that India, Afghanistan and
Russia were backing the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) to
fuel an insurgency in the province. Many in the province see
the killing of these three Baloch leaders as a turning point
in Balochistan,s relationship with the federal government,
and the continuing violence is pushing Baloch nationalists
further away from reconciliation. Many Baloch had high
expectations from President Zardari; however, these events
have frustrated these hopes.

A Violent Week
--------------


3. (C) During the past week, unrest continued throughout
Balochistan over the April 9 murder of Baloch National
Movement (BNM) General Secretary Ghulam Mohammad Baloch and
two other Baloch nationalists (ref A) in broad daylight. The
three were meeting with their attorney, Katchkol Ali
Advocate, when they were pulled out of his office in the
middle of Quetta and killed. Most observers believe that the
intelligence services (probably Military Intelligence) were
responsible. This marked a dramatic and negative departure
from the Pakistan People,s Party outreach effort toward the
Balochis.


4. (C) Following the murders, there were numerous reported
instances of bomb blasts and hand grenade attacks. In one
April 14 action, the militant Baloch Republican Army (BRA)
claimed responsibility for rocket attacks on Frontier Corps
(FC) camps in restive Dera Bugti district that injured three
FC members. In another, unknown attackers fired rockets at a
police training center in Quetta.


5. (C) Protestors in the province closed several businesses,
including banks and burned a number of government and private
offices. Protestors were turned back by police teargas in at
least one instance and the headless bodies of two allegedly
pro-GOP Bugti tribesmen were found in Nasirabad district on
April 16. Three more dead Bugti tribesmen were found on
April 18 in Dera Bugti. No one has claimed responsibility
for the killings in either instance. Many cities across the
province observed strikes and transportation halts.

Tepid Nationalist Response to GOP Offer
--------------


KARACHI 00000145 002 OF 005



6. (C) Federal Interior Minister Rehman Malik visited Quetta
on April 14 and promised the GOP would form a commission to
investigate the killings of the three Baloch nationalists.
The commission will consist of senior officers from the
Federal Investigation Agency (FIA),the Frontier Corps (FC),
intelligence agency representatives and Members of the
Balochistan Provincial Assembly.


7. (C) In the past, the Baloch have typically distrusted the
federal government in general and the intelligence agencies
in particular. Many prominent political parties and
nationalists, including most recently Baloch National Party
) Mengal (BNP-M) General Secretary Habib Jalib, have
rejected the GOP offer and called for a UN investigation in
lieu of a GOP inquiry.


8. (C) BMP-M President Aktar Mengal told the CG on April 21
that he believed GOP promises of additional resources rang
hollow. He pointed out that prior governments, including the
Musharraf and Sharif administrations had promised additional
resource, which he claimed never materialized.


9. (SBU) On April 22, Malik addressed the Senate debate on
Balochistan and claimed that India, Afghanistan and Russia
were backing the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) to fuel an
insurgency in the province. He also dismissed Balochistan
Republican Army (BRA) chief Brahamdagh Bugti,s demand for an
independent Balochistan, and claimed the "militant
organization" was being backed by Afghanistan and India.
Rehman also alleged that Brahamdagh was behind the kidnapping
of Amcit John Solecki. He denied that a military operation
was underway in Balochistan, and he promised an in-camera
session of the Senate to discuss the details about the
Balochistan situation. This was followed by an in-camera
session in the Senate April 23, and much media criticism
April 24 of Rehman,s allegations. (Comment: While the GOP
frequently refers to Bugti as head of both the BRA and the
BLA, Post has heard conflicting reports about BLA leadership
since the 2007 death of BLA leader Mir Balach Marri. We will
attempt to clarify this in future reporting. End comment.)

Widespread Support
--------------


10. (C) Perhaps what is singular about these protests is
their duration and breadth. Rallies and violence have
continued for well over a week in the province. A large
number of districts have participated in the protests, which,
in some cases, have drawn the support of the Pashtuns,
traditional rivals of the Baloch. Southern districts in the
Makran (coastal) region, such as Gwadar and Kech, usually
less prone to turmoil, have been active in the protests and
reportedly experienced violent events such as hand grenade
attacks and arson.

Militant Baloch Groups Active in Protests
--------------


11. (C) Reportedly, many protestors openly displayed flags
of the Baloch Republican Army (BRA),associated with Bugti
tribal leader Brahamdagh Bugti, and the historically
Marri-tribe affiliated Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). A
source in Balochistan told Post that BLA militants warned
school officials in the Makran against displaying Pakistani
flags. Baloch nationalist leader Harbiyar Marri and BRA
leader Bugti both called for U.S. and Indian support for the
nationalist cause during separate televised interviews.
Jailed Baloch Republican Party (BRP) officials initiated a
hunger strike demanding political prisoner status. (Note:
The BRP is reputedly the political wing of the BRA. End
note.)

Baloch National Party ) Mengal Joins In, Plans "Long March"
-------------- --------------


12. (C) Women members of the Baloch National Party ) Mengal
(BNP-M) demonstrated against the killings in the industrial
city of Hub. BNP-M officials led demonstrations in Khuzdar
and Lasbella districts. BNP-M President Aktar Mengal told
the CG that his party plans to coordinate with other

KARACHI 00000145 003 OF 005


nationalists parties to stage a series of demonstrations
beginning on April 30. He added that the party also plans to
stage a "Long March" on that day, beginning in the coastal
city of Omara in Gwadar District and ending in Quetta.
(Note: The GOP derailed similar plans for a BNP-M "Long
March" in 2006 by arresting the Mengal and a number of his
followers. Mengal said that he is prepared to be interned
again. End note.)

Chief Minister Announces "Peace Committee"
--------------


13. (C) On April 19, the province's Chief Minister, Mohammad
Aslam Khan Raisani, a member of the Pakistan People's Party
(PPP),formed a "Peace Committee" to halt targeted killings
of Punjabis and Pashtuns, among others. Parties
participating in the meeting included the Pashtookhwas Milli
Awami Party (PkMAP - a predominantly Pashtun political
party),the Awami National Party (ANP),the Balochistan
National Party Awami (BNP-A) and the Pakistan Muslim League
) Nawaz (PML-N). BNP-M leaders and National Party (NP)
leaders declined to participate, citing a lack of confidence
in the provQD94'[90qQ|^apter in relations with
Islamabad; however, the recent murders were an open affront
to Balochis and have dashed most hopes for reconciliation.


16. (C) Militant Nationalists have repeatedly used stories
of the defilement of Baloch women as a rallying call,
including the claim that Pakistani soldiers raped a Baloch
woman at Sui Gas fields in 2004 and a more recent claim that
a Baloch woman is being used as a "sex slave" by the
military. (Comment: Both claims remain unsubstantiated
accusations. End comment.) Nationalists want, at the least,
greater provincial autonomy and control over the province's
natural resources. Over time, issues such as GOP military
operations in Dera Bugti, alleged missing persons, and
political prisoners have been added to their list of demands.
They are riled by the federal takeover of Gwadar port and
want provincial control restored there.


17. (C) Nargis Baloch, a respected Baloch intellectual and
editor of nationalist Urdu newspaper Intekhab, described the
killings of the three Baloch leaders as a turning point for
many Baloch. She explained to Poloff that she had watched
many young Baloch nationalists grow increasingly
disillusioned with the promises of the GOP and they were
moving towards militancy. Many Baloch separatists, who are
wanted by the GOP, hide in the mountains of Balochistan. In
the past, Nargis said that they were looking for ways to come
out of hiding and go back to their families and lives. As
things have deteriorated in Balochistan, these same young
nationalists see violence and independence as their only
option.


KARACHI 00000145 004 OF 005



18. (C) According to Nargis, Baloch nationalists feel that
they have been betrayed by the GOP and are clear they are
willing to accept help from any country that offers it.
Nargis was visibly upset by the turn of events in
Balochistan. She stressed that the Baloch were natural
allies against the Taliban, because the Baloch were not
religious extremists and they did not give the Taliban safe
havens.

Key Nationalist Militant Groups
--------------


19. (C) While nationalism has been a common Baloch cause,
militant activity has generally been led by the Bugti, Marri
and Mengal tribes. Currently, the Baloch Republican Army
(BRA),directed by Brahamdagh Bugti from Kabul, is the Bugti
tribe's leading insurgent group. The Bugti tribe is
predominant in Dera Bugti district. The Marri tribe,
traditionally based in Kohlu district, has been associated
with the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and the Baloch
Liberation Front (BLF).


20. (C) The Mengal tribe, with a strong presence from
Lasbella to Khuzdar district, has been relatively moderate
during the current nationalist insurgency. The Mengals have
been associated with militant groups such as the Balochistan
Liberation Organization (BLO),the Baloch People's Liberation
Front (BPLF),and more recently, Lashkar-e-Baloch (Note:
The is also the name given to the BNP-M group that planned to
participate in the aborted 2006 march across the province.
End note.)

Impact of Civil Unrest in Balochistan on USG Supply Routes
-------------- --------------


21. (C) Internal turmoil in Balochistan is an ongoing threat
to USG supply shipments to Afghanistan. On April 9, around
200 protestors blocked the Hub - Chaman road in the vicinity
of the central Balochistan city of Khuzdar. Police were able
to open the road the next day. Militants (presumably
nationalists) bombed railroad tracks on April 11 and again on
April 12. The damage was minor and the railway was repaired
relatively quickly.


22. (C) In another unrelated but equally pertinent example
of the effect of civil unrest on supply shipments, on March
25, Pashtun merchants blocked traffic on the Quetta-Chaman
highway in the vicinity of the Kohzak Hills in Balochistan to
reportedly protest the slow pace of construction work on the
highway, which they claimed was preventing them from
conducting business. Hundreds of vehicles, including around
35 - 40 U.S. military supply vehicles, were stalled en route
due to the protest, which did not end until the next
afternoon.

Comment
--------------


23. (C) Nationalist groups appear to view the recent killing
of nationalist leaders (ref A) as an opportunity to gain
momentum for their movement and also a turning point away
from reconciliation. They appear to have lost faith in
repeated provincial and GOP efforts to resolve the conflict
(reftels). The recent events surrounding the kidnapping of
UNHCR official John Solecki (ref G) appear to have enhanced
IQ]6Q)'cAQ~Q7C=