MUSEVENI MIXES TOXIC BREW OF ETHNICITY AND OIL IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 000946

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR KDEM EPET UG
SUBJECT: MUSEVENI MIXES TOXIC BREW OF ETHNICITY AND OIL IN
WESTERN UGANDA

REF: KAMPALA 00366

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Aaron Sampson, Embassy Kampala, for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. An internal July 15 memo from Ugandan
President Museveni has deepened the ethnic divide between
groups living atop newfound oil reserves in Uganda's Western
Region. The memo, which was leaked to the press on August 2,
instructs the Minister for Presidential Affairs to consider
restricting key elected offices - including parliamentary
seats - in what was once the Bunyoro Kingdom in Western
Uganda to ethnic Banyoro only. The memo also recommends
preferential land ownership rights for ethnic Banyoro for the
next twenty years. Museveni's memo may have been designed to
appease, or perhaps distract, Banyoro leaders angered by
long-standing land disputes and the government's continued
refusal to reveal plans for oil revenue sharing (reftel).
Banyoro leaders have hailed the President's proposal as a
major step toward protecting the Banyoro identity and
redressing century old claims against the British colonial
government. The national press, civil society groups, and
parliamentarians from a broad range of political
perspectives, meanwhile, have condemned the idea as a step
toward "tribalism." Museveni subsequently tried to soothe
tensions heightened by his memo by meeting separately with
Banyoro and non-Banyoro community representatives in Kampala.
Police also hauled the newspaper editor responsible for
reprinting the memo in for questioning. Museveni has not
backed away from the idea of investing specific ethnic groups
with special electoral privileges in Western Uganda, and
several members of his Cabinet who hail from Bunyoro have
ratcheted up pressure on Museveni to move forward with his
proposal. Museveni's apparent willingness to consider
rewarding one ethnic constituency by disenfranchising many
others reinforces concerns about his re-election strategy for
2011 and Uganda's commitment to the transparent management of
impending oil revenues. End Summary.

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Museveni's "Ring-Fence" Memo
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2. (U) During the weekend of August 1-2, local newspapers
printed a memo from President Museveni to his Cabinet
Minister in Charge of Presidential Affairs, Beatrice
Wabudeya, entitled "Guidance on the Banyoro/Bafuruki
Question." Banyoro are "indigenous" residents of the Bunyoro
Kingdom, which comprises four districts along the shores of
Lake Albert in Western Uganda. Bafuruki is a term used to
describe non-Banyoro Ugandan "immigrants" who migrated to
Bunyoro during the 1980s. Minister Wabudeya belongs to a
Cabinet level sub-committee previously established to examine
Banyoro/Bafuruki tensions. In his memo Museveni faults
so-called Bafuruki for infringing on Banyoro culture and
political space. Invoking Article 32 of Uganda's 1995
constitution, which authorizes the state to take "affirmative
action" in favor of groups marginalized by "gender, age,
disability, or any other reason," the President instructs
Minister Wabudeya to consider restricting - or in the
President's words "ring-fencing" - elected offices in Bunyoro
to ethnic Banyoro candidates only. This would prevent
non-Banyoros from contesting Parliament seats and key local
level posts.


3. (SBU) The memo also recommends giving land ownership
rights to ethnic Banyoro resident in Bunyoro since 1964,
thereby resolving land disputes stemming from the colonial
era when the British attributed swaths of Bunyoro to largely
absent Buganda landowners from central Uganda. Museveni
recommends preventing Bafuruki from obtaining any additional
land titles and appropriate compensation for absent Buganda
landholders for a period of 20 years. Newly titled ethnic
Banyoro landholders would have the power to lease their newly
acquired property, presumably to oil exploration firms for
profit.

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Ring-Fence as Political Third Rail
--------------


4. (U) A number of Parliamentarians, including some from
Museveni's own National Resistance Movement (NRM),
immediately condemned the ring-fence proposal as a recipe for
ethnic division or worse. Several outspoken NRM
Parliamentarians from Western Uganda and elsewhere described
the idea as an unconstitutional non-starter and joined
opposition calls for a presidential retraction.
Parliamentarian Erias Lukwago, also Attorney General of the
opposition Democracy Party (DP),described ring-fencing of

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specific elective offices as treasonous. Forum for
Democratic Change (FDC) Treasury General Jack Sabiiti warned
that ring-fencing would exacerbate ethnic tensions. "If
President Museveni does not withdraw his statements on
Bunyoro politics and land," Sabiiti told one local newspaper
on August 3, "he will be held responsible for any tribal
clash or chaos that may erupt in this area." Sabiiti also
highlighted the artificial nature of precise ethnic
categorization by noting that intermarriage and other factors
often make it impossible to discern just who belongs to which
ethnic group. Other commentators seized on the precedent of
ring-fencing, warning that the President's proposal smacked
of ethnically based gerrymandering which, if applied to other
parts the country, would heighten ethnic divisions by
creating a series of "bantustans".

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Political Pandering?
--------------


5. (U) FDC Secretary General Alice Alaso interpreted
President Museveni's suggestion as a political ploy to enlist
Banyoro support in advance of the 2011 presidential
elections. She noted that while the FDC's president and
presidential candidate Kizza Besigye still lost Bunyoro to
Museveni during the 2006 elections, the gap between Besigye
and Museveni was much narrower than during the 2001
presidential contest, even though Museveni still won
approximately 81 percent of the vote in Bunyoro. Besigye has
reportedly been working to increase his profile in Bunyoro.
Alaso argued that the ring-fence memo was part of a broader
NRM strategy to shore up support in the four districts that
comprise the Bunyoro Kingdom. A number of Bunyoro Kingdom
officials have subsequently come out in favor of the
President's "ring-fencing" idea, both as a means of
protecting the supposedly "marginalized" Banyoro's identity
and culture and as a revolutionary way to compensate the
Banyoro for colonial injustices perpetrated during the late
19th century.

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Damage Control, Sort Of
--------------


6. (U) President Museveni and some senior Cabinet Ministers
met with selected non-Banyoro leaders in Entebbe during the
weekend of August 8-9 to ease concerns among Bunyoro's
"Bafuruki" or "immigrant" community. Museveni reportedly
urged an amicable solution to the Banyoro-Bafuruki conflict
and said the NRM was committed to promoting peace and unity
in Bunyoro. On August 10, Information and National Guidance
Minister Kabakumba Matsiko said Uganda was working on a way
for Banyoro and non-Banyoro to peacefully co-exist in Western
Uganda. Minister of Internal Affairs Matia Kasaija, however,
reportedly delivered a slightly different message to Banyoro
leaders in Kampala. According to one local newspaper
account, Kasaija, who is from Bunyoro, praised Museveni's
ring-fencing and land ownership proposals.


7. (U) At an August 15 "Bunyoro Symposium" in Kampala with
Banyoro leaders, Minister Kasaija reiterated his support for
"ring-fencing," claimed he had received death threats by text
message, and complained that other unnamed members of
Museveni's Cabinet were treating him and Information Minister
Kabakumba Matsiko like "sectarians". According to local
media reports, Kasaija told the symposium that Banyoro and
other groups could co-exist in Western Uganda provided others
"respect the culture and politics of indigenous people." "I
want to assure you," one newspaper quoted Kasaija as saying,
"that the government is behind us on our new struggle.
That's why the President wrote this letter. We are not
anti-people. All we want is fairness and respect."


8. (U) Two other individuals of note reportedly also spoke
at the August 15 Bunyoro Symposium: the Bunyoro Kingdom's
spokesman Henry Ford Miriima and Presidential Advisor on Land
Issues Kasirivu Atwooki. In recent days Miriima has
advocated for taking President Museveni's "ring-fencing" idea
even further, arguing that non-Banyoro living in Bunyoro
should assimilate into Banyoro culture and adopt the Banyoro
language of Runyoro.

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Newspaper Editor Questioned and Charged
--------------


9. (U) Local authorities summoned Daily Monitor Managing
Editor Daniel Kalinaki for questioning on August 7 following
the Daily Monitor's August 2 publication of the ring-fence
memo. Kalinaki was out of the country at the time the

KAMPALA 00000946 003 OF 003


summons was issued and reported to the Jinja Road police
station on the morning of August 12. According to the Daily
Monitor, police questioned Kalinaki for six hours on August
12 before charging him with forgery and uttering a false
document. Kalinaki was released on bail of 10 million
Shillings (approximately USD 5,000) and instructed to
reappear on August 18. Each of the two charges carry
potential three year prison terms. Kalinaki, his lawyer, and
the Daily Monitor maintain that the text of the letter
reproduced by the newspaper on August 2 was accurate.
Kalinaki has already appeared before police once this year
following a story critical of Uganda's operation against the
Lord's Resistance Army (LRA). In an apparently unrelated
matter, a second Daily Monitor journalist was arrested and
charged with criminal defamation earlier this week in
northern Uganda.

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Police on Alert in Bunyoro
--------------


10. (U) On August 11 in Hoima district in Bunyoro, unknown
assailants reportedly burned the workshop of a non-Banyoro
trader, leading the local police commander to deploy forces
to prevent further unrest. The police commander told news
outlets that the trader had been targeted because he was a
Bafuruki or non-Banyoro immigrant. The August 12 edition of
the Daily Monitor reported that the attack followed a
decision by the Bunyoro Kingdom to encourage non-Banyoro to
register with authorities and assimilate into Banyoro
culture. Local police attributed increased tensions in
Bunyoro to a Bunyoro Kingdom initiative to map out land and
property allegedly belonging to Banyoro. Newspapers have
also reported plans by the Buganda Kingdom to proceed with an
effort to register and provide ID cards to all ethnic
Baganda. The Buganda Kingdom's Information Minister, Medard
Lubega, told the Daily Monitor that the Kingdom wanted "to be
sure about the origin of our people" for planning purposes.
It is unlikely, however, that the Baganda have enough funds
to actually implement this initiative.

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Comment: Museveni Playing with Fire
--------------


11. (C) Tensions between the Banyoro and "immigrant"
populations in Bunyoro have been simmering for some time.
President Museveni's memo significantly heightened these
tensions by elevating them to national prominence.
Explanations of why Museveni seized on the Bunyoro question
now, after more than two decades in power, focus on two
topics: elections and oil. Using Uganda's 2002 census as a
guide, one local news magazine noted that the Banyoro are in
fact not marginalized and that ethnic Banyoro hold 10 of the
14 parliamentary seats from the four districts that make up
the Bunyoro Kingdom. Although Banyoro appear to be the
largest ethnic group in these districts, they do not hold a
majority. Restricting elected offices to only ethnic Banyoro
would therefore disenfranchise a majority of the population
resident in these districts.


12. (C) Many interpret the "ring-fencing" memo leak as a
deliberate attempt to reassure Banyoro leaders over the
eventual distribution of oil revenues. During an August 13
meeting with the Embassy, Uganda's Parliamentary opposition
leader Ogenga Latigo described the memo as Museveni's version
of a trial balloon. "The letter was like throwing a stone
into the bush to see what comes out," said Latigo. Latigo
speculated that the subsequent response - overwhelming
support from the Banyoro and resounding negativity from
nearly everyone else - caught Museveni unaware. President
Museveni's apparent willingness to fan ethnic tensions as a
means of achieving political ends raises serious concerns
about his re-election strategy for 2011 and Uganda's
commitment to the transparent management of impending oil
revenues. The only upside to this "ring-fencing" episode was
the swift condemnation of the proposal by an eclectic range
of actors from across Uganda.
HOOVER