UGANDA: IRREGULARITIES PLAGUE ANOTHER BY-ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000084

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: IRREGULARITIES PLAGUE ANOTHER BY-ELECTION

REF: 08 Kampala 1613


1. Summary: On January 7, Uganda's ruling National Resistance
Movement (NRM) regained two seats which the courts had earlier
declared vacant due to election fraud committed by the winning
candidate in one case, and to non-compliance with the electoral law
in the other. Electoral malpractices were reported in the
hotly-contested woman's Sembabule race, which pitted rival NRM
candidates against each other. The reported interference of
high-level NRM members in the outcome of the Sembabule contest
further undermines voter confidence in the Electoral Commission
(EC),which has demonstrated technical competence, but also
susceptibility to political pressure. The Sembabule race also
highlights deepening fissures within the NRM. If left unresolved by
President Museveni, these tensions could generate even greater
incentives for the NRM to cheat in the run-up to the 2011 elections.
End Summary.


2. On January 7, two by-elections were held to fill the vacated
seats for the Sembabule District in central Uganda seat reserved for
women and a seat representing Bujumba, a constituency in the
Kalangala islands. Both seats became open on November 11, 2008
after the Supreme Court nullified the results of the 2006 elections
in those districts. The candidate in Bujumba was found to not have
proper academic qualifications. In Sembabule, the court found that
NRM candidate Anifa Bagirana Kawooya committed election malpractices
that may have affected the outcome of the race. The court also
found that the EC failed to conduct the Sembabule exercise in
accordance with electoral laws.


3. The Sembabule seat was contentious because it pitted Kawooya
against another NRM party member, Joy Kabatsi. Though more popular
within the district, Kabatsi was denied the party's nomination in
the ruling party's primary in favor of Kawooya. Sembabule District
officials supported Kabatsi, while Kawooya was backed by
national-level NRM leaders, including Foreign Minister Sam Kutesa,
who had bankrolled her tarnished victory in the original election.
Local district officials were particularly upset that the national
party would support a candidate found guilty of electoral
malpractices by a court. As a result, Kabatsi decided to run as an
independent.


4. Kabatsi's decision to run as an independent deeply divided the
NRM and caused President Museveni to speak out against NRM members
running as independents. Museveni, district natives Kutesa and
Security Czar David Tinyefuza, NRM General Secretary Amama Mbabazi,
and several government ministers campaigned for Kawooya. Local
district leaders and many NRM reformers, especially Theodore
Ssekikubo who is a parliamentarian from the district, and a few
State House officials, campaigned for Kabatsi.


5. In the final tally, Kawooya won 26,445 votes (53.6 percent) to
defeat Kabatsi, who garnered 22,373 votes (45.4 percent).
Democratic Party candidate Irene Natongo won 474 votes (1 percent).
By most accounts, Kabatsi was winning the election until late
results were reported from two constituencies which gave Kawooya a
3,000-vote margin of victory. An angry Kabatsi stormed out of the
tallying center minutes before the final results were announced,
claiming that the EC had not thoroughly investigated reports of
irregularities and that the elections had been rigged in Kawooya's
favor.

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Electoral Malpractices Reported
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6. Poloffs and local monitors observed the by-election in Sembabule
District. The EC spent $100,000 and eight weeks preparing for the
election, according to Latif Ngonzi, the Chief Returning Officer.
For the most part, voting was calm and orderly. The voting started
on time and election materials at all polling centers had been
delivered. There was a good turn-out of voters at most polling
stations. Polling agents and police at the polling stations visited
by emboffs were well-trained. At some polling stations, there were
many cases of elderly and disabled voters being assisted to vote by
family workers, which may have affected the secrecy of some ballots.
Poloffs saw some 50-60 individuals holding off to vote in
anticipation that they would be paid for their vote in Kutesa's
constituency. Poloffs also heard reports of ballot box stuffing in
constituencies near the borders of the district. The EC established
a complaint desk and telephone line and dispatched a mobile team to
investigate reported incidents.


7. During the day, Kabatsi reported to the EC that her polling
agents were beaten and chased away from several polling stations.
She also claimed that Uganda Peoples Defense Force (UPDF) soldiers
from Lutuuku parish (the home area of Lt. General David Tinyenfuza),
appeared at Kairasha polling center in Lugusulu Sub-County with
pre-ticked ballots. Kabatsi said that Isha Ntumwa, her chief
polling agent, was arrested while trying to intercept the pre-ticked
ballots. Ntumwa was released after several hours. Kabatsi filed a

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complaint to challenge the results in Lugusuulu and Lwebitakuli
sub-counties. Ngonzi told poloffs there were no valid grounds to
cancel the results at these centers.


8. Kabatsi's claims appear to be backed up by the findings of
DemGroup, a non-partisan civil society-based monitoring group.
DemGroup reported ballot stuffing, political arrests, and under-age
voting in the Sembabule by-election. (Note: DemGroup is a coalition
of civil society organizations headed by the Uganda Joint Christian
Council and is a well-respected electoral watchdog with experience
observing elections. End Note.) DemGroup's Executive Director
Sylvester Arinaitwe told poloffs that the EC did not act
independently and that he was concerned at the level at which "the
process of democratization was being suffocated". He reported that
DemGroup found that several complaints of electoral fraud that
occurred at various polling stations could have affected the outcome
of the race. In a press conference, DemGroup reported that "there
was bribery by various players, including some Cabinet Ministers who
are said to have bought alcohol, sugar, and even given cash to
voters." Local residents claimed they had been intimidated before
and during the elections by security forces and that soldiers had
interfered in the process, according to Arinaitwe. DemGroup found
that a majority of voters indicated that they had supported
Kabatsi.

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The Bujumba Election
--------------


9. In the other by-election on January 7, NRM candidate Fred Badda
won the Bujumba seat as expected, and handily with 3,341 votes. He
defeated the main rival, Peter Muyanda, also an independent
candidate, who received 2,280 votes (39.4 percent),and DP candidate
Joseph Herman Kakooza, who polled 160 votes (2.8 percent). The EC
said there were no serious complaints registered during the
exercise, but the losers were unhappy with the results. There will
be no petition filed with the courts.

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Comment
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10. The latest by-elections demonstrate that election malpractices
continue to plague Uganda's electoral process even in an intra-party
affair. Logistically, the EC can put in place proper procedures and
mechanics for a free election. However, the Sembabule by-election
indicates that these preparations are not immune from political
interference from the highest levels of government.


11. Of equal interest is that the by-election also exposed deep
divisions within the ruling party between Museveni, Foreign Minister
Kutesa and other "historicals" on one side, and the new generation
of party members led by outspoken parliamentarians, on the other.
Moreover, Museveni's backing of Kawooya, who was found by the court
to have committed previous electoral malpractices, over Kabatsi, a
locally popular, card-carrying NRM member, has soured local district
politicians and residents on the ruling party. Museveni has
recently reached out to Kabatsi, but institutionally, the NRM
appears to be doing nothing to shore up its weakening support in
many areas of Uganda. This suggests the ruling party may have to
rely increasingly on corruption and vote rigging to maintain its
overwhelming parliamentary majority in the run-up to parliamentary
and presidential elections in 2011.
BROWNING