UGANDA/DRC: OPERATION RUDIA II UPDATE (JULY 15,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000771

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/19
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MOPS MARR UG CG SU
SUBJECT: UGANDA/DRC: OPERATION RUDIA II UPDATE (JULY 15,
2009)

REF: KAMPALA 687

Classified By: Acting P/E Chief Jarahn Hillsman for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (SBU) Summary: This cable is a periodic update on the
regional military operation against the Lord's Resistance
Army (LRA) known as Operation Rudia II. This report is not
meant to provide an overarching narrative or polished
analysis of the operation, but rather offers spot information
gleaned in Uganda only, from credible U.S. Mission sources
here. We recognize the regional scope of the operation and
the fact that our sources may be limited in their knowledge
and perspective on Rudia II. End Summary.

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MILITARY UPDATE
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2. (S NF) The Uganda Peoples' Defense Forces (UPDF) continues
to demonstrate steady, incremental progress in tracking and
destroying small LRA elements. According to reporting from
the Kampala Combined Intelligence Fusion Cell (KCIFC),the
UPDF has killed a total of 151 LRA rebels, including several
senior officers, captured 27 rebels and 98 weapons, and
rescued 218 abductees since the operation launched in
December 2008. Most recently, the UPDF killed eight LRA
rebels, captured one LRA rebel, rescued two abductees, and
recovered eight weapons and 75 rounds of ammunition in
various engagements with the LRA since June 27. The KCIFC
estimates that 300-350 LRA combatants remain at large,
operating in relatively small, dispersed groups over a broad
swath of northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Since June 27, the UPDF has been tracking and engaging a high
value target group, likely led by Okot Odhiambo, operating
southwest of Sukawe, DRC, about 20 kilometers south of the
DRC-Central African Republic (CAR) border. LRA elements have
crossed the border into the CAR, but it is unclear if the
UPDF has actually attacked LRA elements there. The UPDF has
engaged with what the KCIFC assesses is part of Joseph Kony's
group on or about July 12 northwest of Bonguru, DRC, and that
local self-defense forces probably engaged another part of
Kony's group later that same day near Bitima, DRC.


3. (S NF) On July 8, the UPDF engaged with a group believed
to be under the command of Okot Odek near Faradje, DRC.
After weeks of uncertainty, recent locational information
regarding LRA Eastern Command leaders Charles Arop and Okot
Odek leads us to believe the Eastern Command group is still
operating near Faradje. The UPDF also recovered one
satellite phone during a July 14 engagement in the same area.


4. (S NF) On July 11, local media reported that the LRA
abducted 80 people during a raid on the remote village of
Bayule in northeast DRC. UPDF sources believe this number is
high, and estimate that 20-40 people were actually abducted
based on trails left by LRA and abductees.

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POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
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5. (SBU) Local media continue to feed fears of increased
activities by newly-formed rebel groups in northern Uganda,
despite official statements from National Intelligence
Coordinator General David Tinyefuza that talk of the new
rebel group, the Uganda People's Front (UPF, also known as
the Popular Patriotic Front, or PPF) is "utter rubbish."
Tinyefuza traveled to northern districts to investigate
allegations of subversive rebel activities by northern
opposition Members of Parliament (MPs). UPDF Spokesman Felix
Kulayigye was one of the most outspoken critics of these
opposition leaders, including Norbert Mao, the Gulu District
chairman and probable presidential candidate for the
Democratic Party in the upcoming 2011 elections. Kulayigye
and others had accused Mao of being an accomplice and advisor
to the UPF after a copy of the group's manifesto was found on
Mao's personal flash drive, which was reportedly lost at a
Kampala hotel and subsequently recovered by the government.
Kulayigye accused Mao of writing the paper and threatened to
arrest him.


6. (SBU) Eleven other suspects, including Pader-based
journalist Patrick Otim, were arrested for their alleged
involvement in subversive activities and are reportedly being
held at Luzira Prison. On July 3, Tinyefuza's investigation
concluded that the alleged rebel activity "posed no threat to
national security." President Museveni subsequently ordered
the UPDF to stop arresting suspected rebel collaborators and

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assured northern parliamentary leaders that they would not be
arrested for rebel activities. Defense Minister Amama
Mbabazi insisted that the UPF group exists in his July 9
statement to Parliament, but acknowledged that the government
has not found any evidence tying northern MPs to the group.
Opposition MP and Acholi Parliamentary Group Vice Chairman
Reagan Okumu argues that the pursuit of rebel sympathizers is
a government attempt to silence opposition leaders in advance
of the 2011 elections.


7. (C) Military Intelligence Chief James Mugira confirmed to
the DAO that recent UPDF troop deployments along the DRC
border are routine movements. These movements do not
indicate an impending threat of a rebel attack across the DRC
border, as local media erroneously reported on July 13.

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EU Representative to Push for More Support at Home
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8. (C) The Charge met with European Union (EU) Special
Representative for LRA Affected Areas Ambassador Roeland Van
de Geer on July 15 at the latter,s request. Van de Geer met
with UPDF Chief of Defense Forces General Aronda Nyakairima,
Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Henry Okello Oryem,
northern Parliamentarians, and MONUC representatives during
his Kampala visit. He asked the Charge for an update on UPDF
efforts to kill or capture Joseph Kony, and sought increased
U.S. support for the UN Mission in DRC (known by its French
acronym MONUC). Van de Geer plans to pitch a substantial
support package for MONUC to the EU on July 22, and seeks
support from France, the Netherlands, the UK, and the United
States. Assistance would strengthen MONUC's capacity to
protect civilian populations in LRA-affected areas by
providing additional transportation and communications
equipment to MONUC; improving contact with the Diaspora to
promote defections; increasing MONUC's participation in
information campaigns; and encouraging greater action against
Diaspora elements that continue to support the LRA.

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HUMANITARIAN SITUATION
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9. (SBU) Increasing LRA attacks in the Orientale Province of
DRC continue to provoke displacement and disrupt humanitarian
assistance efforts in the Bas-Uele and Haut-Uele districts.
The UN Office of the Coordinator for Humanitarian Assistance
(OCHA) in Bunia reports 238,097 internally displaced persons
(IDPs) in Bas-Uele and Haut-Uele as of June 30, which
represents an increase of 9,880 over May figures. The
majority of the IDP population is in the Haut-Uele district,
with 123,059 concentrated in the Dungu area and an additional
46,826 in the Faradje area. Insecurity continues to impede
humanitarian access, leaving approximately 55 percent of the
total IDP caseload with no assistance. The World Food
Program (WFP) is responding with targeted air drops. OCHA
Senior Humanitarian Affairs Officer and Head of Office in
Orientale Province, Jean-Charles Dupin, told Poloff that the
first air drops are scheduled to begin in Niangara in the
next several days.

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Comment
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10. (C) The commotion over the arrests and accusations
against northern opposition MPs seem to have subsided. We
believe the media continue to overinflate the UPF threat, but
will continue to monitor developments. Otherwise, the UPDF
continues to make slow but steady progress militarily against
the LRA.
HOOVER