UGANDA/DRC: OPERATION RUDIA II UPDATE (JUNE 29,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000679

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/19
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM MOPS MARR UG CG SU
SUBJECT: UGANDA/DRC: OPERATION RUDIA II UPDATE (JUNE 29,
2009)

REF: KAMPALA 595

Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (SBU) Summary: This cable is a periodic update on the
regional military operation against the Lord's Resistance
Army (LRA) known as Operation Rudia II. This report is not
meant to provide an overarching narrative or polished
analysis of the operation, but rather offers spot information
gleaned in Uganda only, from credible U.S. Mission sources
here. We recognize the regional scope of the operation and
the fact that our sources may be limited in their knowledge
and perspective on Rudia II. End Summary.

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MILITARY UPDATE
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2. (S NF) Military operations against the Lord's Resistance
Army (LRA) continue to make progress. Between June 15 and
29, the Ugandan Peoples Defense Forces (UPDF) killed four and
captured six LRA fighters and rescued 26 abductees. (Note:
Other information sources suggest the numbers of LRA killed
and captured may be higher. End Note.) Ugandan Defense
Minister Crispus Kiyonga estimates that 50% of the LRA's
senior leadership and 25% of its fighting force have been
killed during the military operations. Kiyonga puts the
number of remaining LRA fighters at 300. The U.N. Mission in
Congo (MONUC) provides similar figures, estimating that the
LRA's fighting force currently numbers 300-400 and its
abductees number 600-1,000. (Note: We believe MONUC's
numbers of abductees in captivity is high. End Note.)
Recent reports show that LRA leader Joseph Kony is moving
toward Bokoya, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in line
with earlier reports that LRA leadership was believed to be
moving west towards the Central African Republic (CAR)
border. Meanwhile, his deputy, Okot Odhiambo, continues to
make moves to divert attention away from Kony's group. MONUC
also reports an emerging trend among Congolese youth
imitating LRA tactics and generating false reports of "LRA
activities" and attacks on civilians.


3. (C) Ambassador Browning attended a "Friends of MONUC"
meeting on June 22. MONUC briefed the group on the Chiefs of
Defense Forces (CHOD) meeting in Kisangani. The CHODs from
DRC, Uganda, and CAR agreed that military operations are
putting pressure on the LRA and should continue. MONUC
discussed its ability to provide logistical support to CAR
and/or Uganda should its area of operations expand, but says
it would need a new mandate from the U.N. Security Council to
do so. Notably, MONUC did not mention the possibility of
expanding operations into southern Sudan. (Note: Our sources
speculate that this is because the LRA does not seem to be
moving towards southern Sudan. End Note.) The meeting's
participants noted that there also seems to be confusion
regarding recent rumors of LRA activity in southern Sudan and
possible Khartoum support for these activities spurred by
comments from a southern Sudanese politician from Western
Equatoria Province that appeared in the Ugandan press. The
group recognized that these rumors are unconfirmed and
cautioned operators in the region to exercise restraint in
perpetuating such rumors.

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POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
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4. (C) The Government of Uganda formally charged MEGA FM
journalist Patrick Otim and eleven others with treason for
their association with the Peoples Patriotic Front, a nascent
rebel group in northern Uganda (ref A). The Government has
not and does not intend to make any further arrests, despite
the fears of opposition politicians that they will be
implicated and detained for political purposes.


5. (S NF) UPDF Spokesman Felix Kulayigye told P/E Chief on
June 25 that Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga may be making
common cause with the Acholi opposition in Uganda and
diaspora elements in Nairobi to advocate on behalf of LRA
leader Joseph Kony. Odinga reportedly has written a letter
to U.S. President Barack Obama requesting that the U.S. stop
its operations against the LRA. Odinga, an ethnic Luo,
reportedly is attempting to unite the Luo-speaking
communities of western Kenya, southern Sudan, and northern
Uganda. (Note: The Acholi people in northern Uganda are Luo
speakers. The majority of elected parliamentarians in the
Acholi sub-region are members of the opposition. End Note.)
Kulayigye said the Government suspects Odinga of supporting

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the Ugandan opposition because President Museveni supported
Kenyan President Kibaki during the Kenyan elections. Ugandan
Government sources allege that Odinga met with Government of
Southern Sudan President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek
Machar with a similar request. (Note: We do not know how
Kiir responded. End Note.)


6. (SBU) U.N. Special Envoy for LRA-Affected Areas Joachim
Chissano's contract ends on June 30. He postponed his final
report to the U.N. Security Council until July 15. LRA chief
negotiator David Matsanga grabbed the opportunity to claim in
the press that he persuaded Chissano to delay the report.
Matsanga's claims are "a lie," according to Nuno Tomas, the
head of Chissano's office in Kampala. Chissano had other
commitments in Madagascar and could not travel to New York
until mid-July.


7. (U) In a significant diplomatic development, the newly
accredited Congolese Ambassador, Charles Okoto Lola Kombe,
arrived in Kampala on June 24, 2009. Kombe's arrival
upgrades DRC's representation to the ambassadorial level and
is the culmination of three year's of regional diplomatic
efforts through the Tripartite Plus process and bilateral
discussions between the two countries to normalize relations.
The move is expected to strengthen Ugandan-Congolese
cooperation. Kampala has nominated and is awaiting approval
for its new ambassador to Kinshasa.

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HUMANITARIAN SITUATION
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8. (S NF) The World Food Program (WFP) is now coordinating
its food drops in LRA areas with MONUC and UPDF forces from
Dungu, according to MONUC sources.
BROWNING