UGANDA: PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDER BESIGYE FORESEES ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 001407

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/21
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDER BESIGYE FORESEES ELECTION
RELATED VIOLENCE

REF: KAMPALA 01391; KAMPALA 01196

CLASSIFIED BY: Aaron Sampson, Pol/Econ Chief, State, Pol/Econ;
REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C) Summary: Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) president Kizza
Besigye, who won 37% percent of the vote in the 2006 presidential
election and is President Museveni's most formidable challenger for
2011, told PolOffs on December 15 that government officials and
security forces are actively obstructing his efforts to organize
rallies, access local media, raise funds, and travel abroad.
Besigye said the FDC will use "every available means" to prevent
Uganda's Electoral Commission, which he views as partisan, from
organizing any elections, including February 2010 bi-elections for
two vacant Parliamentary seats. Besigye warned that rising
discontent coupled with increased government repression will lead
to political violence, and urged the U.S. to pressure President
Museveni to avert a "huge disaster" by respecting democratic norms.
End Summary.



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Government Harassment and Intimidation

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2. (C) FDC leader and likely presidential challenger Besigye said
"running battles" with the Ugandan security services and local
government officials are preventing the FDC from conducting
business, holding meetings, and addressing the public as allowed
under the law. Like many other opposition figures and journalists
critical of the Museveni regime, Besigye's passport rests with
government authorities pending resolution of permanently stalled
treason charges. Describing himself as a "prisoner" on "temporary
parole" since he was charged with treason in 2005, Besigye is
required to provide invitation letters, travel dates, itineraries,
and reasons for travel to authorities each time he applies to
recover his passport for travel abroad. Besigye said the opaque
and intrusive application process can take three days to three
weeks and frequently forces him to cancel international
engagements. Besigye suspects local authorities of deliberately
scheduling application hearings to conflict with his proposed
travel dates.




3. (C) Besigye complained that the Minister of Internal Affairs
Kirunda Kivejinja and the Inspector General of Police (IGP)
continue to rely on a provision of the Police Act, already declared
unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court, to force opposition
parties to obtain written IGP approval for any meetings involving
25 people or more. Besigye said local officials in Karamoja in
northeastern Uganda recently shut down even IGP-authorized events,
citing a need for verbal authorization from police in Kampala.
Besigye said last minute cancellations of opposition events by
government officials inflict substantial financial losses on the
FDC, which must pay to organize events well in advance. The most
recent invocation of the Police Act to break up an FDC event
occurred December 6 in the western town of Hoima, following the
December 1 arrest of Hoima's mayor and FDC official, Francis
Atugonza (ref. A). Besigye accused the government of arresting
Atugonza on trumped up "abuse of office" charges to wrest control
of Hoima's local government from the FDC.




4. (C) Besigye said FDC leaders are also unable to appear on FM
radio stations outside of Kampala. Uganda has more than 150 mostly
privately owned FM radio stations. Besigye said the FDC is
generally able to obtain air time in Kampala but has been
blacklisted from radio stations outside the capital, which Besigye
said are generally owned by government officials or ruling National
Resistance Movement (NRM) members. Besigye said radio stations in
Karamoja and Fort Portal barred him from appearing on air even
though the FDC had already paid for the airtime.




5. (C) The FDC leader said the Ugandan government is preventing him
from fundraising. He said government intimidation and harassment
prevents FDC members from purchasing party membership cards or
openly affiliating themselves with an opposition party. Private

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individuals and companies, meanwhile, refrain from writing checks
to either the FDC or Kizza Besigye for fear of government
reprisals. Besigye said an oil company that rents a property from
him arranged to write rent checks in his lawyer's name to avoid
provoking government ire.



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Electoral Opposition: We're All Going to Prison

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6. (C) Besigye reiterated prior FDC statements regarding his
party's refusal to participate in elections organized by Uganda's
Electoral Commission, which he and many observers view as partisan
in favor of the NRM (ref. B). He said the FDC will not participate
in "farce" elections organized by the current Commission. Besigye
added that the FDC would not withdraw from elections or boycott,
but will use "every available means" to ensure that elections under
the current Commission do not take place. He offered few
additional details, beyond a vague indication of upcoming legal
challenges - although he also said the FDC no longer has faith in
the Ugandan judiciary - and acts of "civic action." At another
point Besigye and FDC spokesman Wafula Oguttu said "we are all
going to go to prison. The writing is on the wall." Besigye said
his pledge to prevent the Electoral Commission from organizing
elections applies not only to the presidential election in February
2011, but also to by-elections for two vacant Parliament seats.
The two by-elections have not yet been scheduled, but will likely
be held in February 2010.



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FDC's Electoral Platform

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7. (C) Nevertheless, Besigye continues to crisscross Uganda looking
for votes. His appeal to voters is based on the general question
of whether everyday Ugandans feel their lives are getting better or
worse. In his stump speeches, Besigye blames increasing poverty,
rising corruption, deteriorating infrastructure, continued lack of
electricity, poor schools, and lack of government services on
President Museveni and NRM mismanagement, and presents himself as
the candidate of change. Besigye proposed drastically reducing the
size of the Ugandan government, by eliminating Resident District
Commissioners and other administrative structures closely tied to
President Museveni's "resistance movement" ideology, and clamping
down on rampant corruption. Besigye said this will free up
additional funding for critical yet neglected social services like
health and education.



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International Help to Avert Disaster

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8. (C) Besigye said rising discontent, coupled with increased
government repression, will eventually result in significant
violence. He said the deadly September 10-12 riots in Kampala
signified an explosion of pent up anger fueled not by Buganda
nationalists but poverty-stricken unemployed youth. He noted that
many of the shops targeted by rioters were supermarkets looted by
citizens simply looking for food. He said the increasingly opulent
lifestyles of senior government leaders is compounding this
discontent, and that "unless the NRM checks itself and reflects on
its own legacy, we are headed for a huge disaster." Besigye said
the international community needs to act now in order to have a
positive influence on Uganda's short-term political future. He
urged the U.S. to use its leverage with Museveni, both privately
and publicly through stern statements, to send a message that

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deviations from democratic norms are not acceptable.



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Comment: Don't Dismiss Besigye

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9. (C) Besigye appeared relaxed, thoughtful, and in good humor.
Having managed to win 37% of the vote in 2006 despite spending a
good part of the campaign season in prison on trumped up rape,
terrorism and treason charges, Besigye is a serious presidential
contender. While he may not beat President Museveni outright, if a
free and fair election were run today, Besigye might force Museveni
below the critical 50% threshold. Besigye's accusations of
government intimidation and harassment - particularly in regard to
disruption of opposition events and access to local media -
correspond with our own observations. Left unchecked, continued
state sponsored harassment of Besigye and the FDC will likely force
Uganda's political opposition parties to use the only tools left in
their arsenal - legal disputes, civil disobedience and,
potentially, violence.
LANIER