UGANDA: ALLEGATIONS OF "GHOST" VOTERS HAUNT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 001323

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: ALLEGATIONS OF "GHOST" VOTERS HAUNT
ELECTORAL COMMISSION

REF: A. KAMPALA 01166

B. KAMPALA 01196

C. KAMPALA 01275

D. KAMPALA 01278

E. KAMPALA 01097

F. KAMPALA 00979

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Aaron Sampson for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1.(C) Summary: An internal report by the ruling National
Resistance Movement (NRM) party accuses the Electoral
Commission of conspiring with opposition leaders to stack
Uganda's voter registry with "ghost" voters and "phantom"
villages. The report - commissioned by President Museveni
and Security Minister Amama Mbabazi, and drafted by Mbabazi's
daughter Nina - could lead to the dissolution of the
Electoral Commission (EC),which is regarded by opposition
parties, civil society, and international donors as favorable
to the NRM. The NRM's assessment concludes the EC favors the
opposition. On November 11, Nina Mbabazi predicted a massive
EC shake-up, complained of NRM infighting, and claimed
Museveni is looking for someone to run in his place as
President in 2011. End Summary.

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NRM Declares Open Season on Own Electoral Commission
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2. (SBU) On October 22, Uganda's main opposition newspaper
published excerpts of an internal NRM report accusing core EC
officials of conspiring with opposition parties to place
"ghost" voters and "phantom" villages on Uganda's voter
rolls. Opposition parties have identified a new EC as a
prerequisite for their participation in the 2011 elections
because they view the current EC as pro-NRM (refs. A, B and
C). Various iterations of the NRM report accuse the EC of
placing 500,000 to one million pro-opposition "ghost" voters
on the voter registry to force the NRM's Presidential
candidate into a second round election run off in 2011. The
report singles out EC Secretary Sam Rwakoojo, Legal Council
Alfred Okello Oryem, and a handful of mid-level officials for
corruption, fraud and conflict of interest, and recommends
firing Rwakoojo "forthwith as he as done the most to damage
(the) NRM."


3. (SBU) Several diplomatic missions subsequently received
copies of an anonymous letter, allegedly from a disgruntled
EC accountant, purporting to offer further evidence of
Rwakoojo and Okello Oryem's misdeeds. Dated October 26 and
addressed to Security Minister and NRM Secretary General
Mbabazi, the letter accuses Rwakoojo, Okello Oryem, and EC
Chairman Badru Kiggundu of conspiring to lose legal cases
against the EC in order to pocket percentages of court
ordered payouts to claimants, fixing inflated procurement
contracts, accepting bribes, and promoting female EC staff
members in return for sex.

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NRM: Voter Registry is Beyond Repair
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4. (C) Senior NRM officials, including Cabinet Minister and
NRM Chief Whip Daudi Migereko, sought to distance the NRM
from the internal report following its publication, claiming
that the document did not represent the views of the NRM. On
November 11, however, Minister Mbabazi's daughter Nina
confirmed to PolOff that President Museveni commissioned the
report, provided USD 50,000 in funding, and tasked Nina with
leading a team of 100 NRM "volunteers" to audit both the EC
and its voter registry. Nina said the EC's incompetence will
lead to post-election legal challenges that could throw even
genuinely free and fair election results into doubt. The NRM
is particularly fearful of challenges that would accuse the
EC of preventing eligible Ugandan citizens from casting
presidential ballots.


5. (C) Nina said NRM analysis of the registry's 10.5 million
names reveals more than 600,000 repetitions. Some of these
"ghost" voters appear as many as 8 to 10 times in the
register. She also accused the EC of illegally deleting more
than 700,000 NRM voter names. Describing Uganda's existing
voter registry as beyond repair, she advocated for a massive
and immediate nation-wide citizenship drive to replace the
flawed voter register and stave off any potential
post-election legal challenges based on the question of
citizenship.


6. (C) The EC has already issued a tender - now suspended

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(ref. D) - for a USD 15 million biometric voter ID program.
Nina dismissed the voter ID program as pointless (because it
fails to remedy the wider citizenship identity problem),a
financial waste (because it consumes more than 100% of the
EC's available funding),and illegal (because the program
targets not the entire nation but only selected
municipalities). She said the NRM has already hired a local
data entry firm to create a working database of Ugandan
citizens by reconciling what can be salvaged from the voter
registry with internal NRM membership records. The NRM's
national membership drive recently launched by NRM Secretary
General Mbabazi (ref. E) is the backbone of Nina Mbabazi's
"citizen" database.

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The End of the EC As We Know It?
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7. (C) To substantiate her theory that the opposition Forum
for Democratic Change (FDC) party is working with EC officers
to rig the voter registry, Nina unfurled a 2ft by 3ft
organizational chart of the EC, with the names of each of the
EC's 80 or so national level employees highlighted in yellow
for the NRM or blue for the FDC. According to Nina, only two
of the EC's six Commissioners support the NRM. The four
remaining Commissioners are highlighted blue, along with EC
Secretary Rwakoojo. Nina described strident opposition party
criticism of the EC as "lip service" to instill a "mindset"
among Ugandans and international donors of an NRM bent on
rigging the 2011 election. She added that the NRM has
"people" inside all the opposition parties and therefore
knows what opposition parties are doing.


8. (C) The word "Change" was scrawled in pen beside the names
of several EC employees on Nina's chart. She said the NRM
wants to either fire or reassign these individuals, and
predicted a vastly different EC by January 2010. EC
Secretary Rwakoojo, Chairman Kiggundu, and Legal Council
Okello Oryem are the most likely to go. Nina said the NRM
"will burn down" the EC if Rwakoojo is still Secretary come
January, and that she would personally light the match.


9. (C) COMMENT: EC Chairman Kiggundu, four other
Commissioners, and Secretary Rwakoojo have all either run for
office as members of the NRM or worked for the NRM party
(ref. F). The NRM's conspiracy theory about opposition
infiltration of the EC seems to have spawned not only a
skewed vision of the EC, but a network of informants charged
with ferreting out the personal political sentiments of every
EC employee. Asked to explain why her team classified only
two Commissioners as pro-NRM, Nina admitted that many
"profiles" were "not the best" because her "profilers"
incorrectly equated criticism of government corruption with
being anti-NRM. Clearly Nina's concern is that NRM EC
members are not pro-NRM enough. Ironically, her color coded
chart reveals a relatively balanced EC largely representative
of the Ugandan electorate as a whole. END COMMENT.

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Corruption, Infighting and NRM Leadership Disputes
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10. (C) Nina said rampant corruption has seriously weakened
the NRM. She said her father was shocked to discover
villagers willing to support the NRM but not Museveni during
his tour of the countryside, and said Ugandans never made
this distinction before. She also complained of bitter NRM
infighting, labeled party members opposed to her research as
"saboteurs," and accused Museveni's Private Secretary Amelia
Kyambadde and Foreign Minister Sam Kutesa of conspiring to
thwart her direct access to the President and to undermine
her research. Nina said she angered Kutesa by agitating for
the removal of 7,000 "ghost" voters from his home
constituency, and that she personally leaked copies of her
report to the press to convince local journalists not to
publish a news story about the Mbabazis planted by Amelia and
Kutesa.


11. (C) Nina said there are "indications" Museveni is tired
and looking for a trustworthy successor to run in his place
in 2011, and that her father is the most likely candidate.
She said Kutesa is not a serious contender and is working to
sabotage the Mbabazis because he knows his fortunes will
decline should Mbabazi ever take over. COMMENT: We have seen
no indications that Museveni is considering stepping down in

2011. END COMMENT

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Comment: As the NRM Turns

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12. (C) Some "ghost" voters are attributable to fraud
perpetrated by the NRM and opposition parties. Others are
the result of inherent bureaucratic mistakes governing the
management of a list of more than 10 million names. Instead
of implementing a transparent program to clean up the voter
registry, the EC embarked on a quixotic biometric voter ID
program that addresses neither the overall issue of "ghost"
voters nor the NRM's citizenship concerns. However, an NRM
sponsored national "citizen" database using primarily NRM
membership records will likely yield nothing more than a
second flawed list of Ugandan voters. Nina's report will
likely lead to a dissolution of the EC. With opposition
parties, civil society, international donors, and now the NRM
all publicly questioning the EC's impartiality, it is
difficult to envision how the EC can operate effectively.
While all those interested in a free and fair election may
seek a new EC, without serious changes to the
constitutionally mandated EC appointment process, any new
Commissioners selected by President Museveni are liable to be
equally partisan.
LANIER