UGANDA: THE CONTINUED DECLINE AND FALL OF THE LRA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 001304

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PINS PINR PHUM PGOV UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: THE CONTINUED DECLINE AND FALL OF THE LRA

Classified By: Political Officer Tim Manarin for reasons
1.4.(b) and (d).

1.(C) Summary: The November 3 surrender of the Lord's
Resistance Army's (LRA) commander for eastern forces, LTC
Charles Arop, signals a major defeat for LRA remnants located
in northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),and
provides another indicator of the LRA's rapid unraveling. On
October 20, ex-LRA spokesman David Matsanga said Joseph Kony
is seeking renewed peace negotiations due to growing military
pressure. Although Matsanga's credibility is low, his
renewed interest in trading on Kony's reputation while there
is still time suggests he too believes the LRA's end is near.
On October 26, a U.S. NGO focused on the LRA praised the
professionalism of the Ugandan Peoples Defense Forces (UPDF)
operating in southern Sudan and said Kony might commit a Jim
Jones style mass suicide with his entourage if cornered.
Meanwhile, Ugandan authorities are preparing to prosecute
selected senior LRA officers with war crimes. End Summary.

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LRA's Eastern Wing Collapsing
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2. (S/NF) The head of the LRA in northeastern DRC, LTC
Charles Arop, surrendered to the UPDF on November 3 in the
DRC. With an initial force of at least 200 rebels, Arop was
the LRA's top commander for areas east of Garamba National
Park in DRC. Arop's LRA group was responsible for the 25-26
December 2008 "Christmas Massacre" where more than 280
Congolese were brutally killed and others were raped and
abducted. Arop's group continued to operate with relative
impunity until the DRC and Uganda agreed in March 2009 to
conduct joint operations south of the Dungu-Faradje road.
With information assistance from Africa Command, the UPDF
severely depleted Arop's capabilities. According to UPDF
Chief of Military Intelligence Brig. Gen. Mugira, Arop will
be taken to the UPDF 4th Division HQ in Nzara, Southern
Sudan. He will be questioned and instructed to communicate
with his remaining Brigade Commander in the east, LTC Okot
Odek, and with other LRA forces in DRC to encourage them to
surrender.


3. (C) Arop's surrender is the latest major setback for the
LRA. The UPDF killed Kony's personal signaler, Major Michael
Epado, on October 16 in the Central African Republic (CAR).
Since launching its regional offensive in December 2008, the
UPDF claims to have killed 253 LRA fighters, captured 101,
and liberated 357 abductees. We believe the LRA still has
300-350 fighters remaining, with the majority concentrated in
the Sudan-DRC-CAR border area. Arop's surrender will enable
the UPDF to re-focus its efforts nearly entirely on Kony and
his remaining fighters in CAR.

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EX-LRA Spokesman Claims Message from Kony
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4. (C) The former LRA envoy David Matsanga told Poloff on
October 20 that Kony is willing to restart peace talks with
the Ugandan government. Matsanga was the LRA's external
spokesman from 1998 to 2002 and later became the group's lead
negotiator for the January 2008 Juba Peace Talks. He
resigned in August 2009 citing Kony's repeated failure to
sign a final peace agreement. Matsanga said he last spoke to
Kony in late September, and said UPDF operations have turned
Kony's civilian entourage into a serious burden and that Kony
is willing to release 400 non-combatants - including his
wives and children - in return for assurances of financial
well-being, a cease-fire, and agreement to face trial for war
crimes in Uganda rather than the Hague. Matsanga said
continued hostilities were preferable to trial before the
International Criminal Court (ICC)


5. (C) Matsanga claimed to be working with UN officials in
Kinshasa to receive this group of 400 civilians. On October
22, MONUC's Kampala-based political officer confirmed that
Matsanga related this information and said MONUC believes
Matsanga is in fact in contact with the LRA leadership.
While MONUC officials have no faith in Kony's sincerity and
did not plan to act on the information, MONUC interpreted
Matsanga's report as a sign of Kony's increasing desperation
and the regional offensive's effectiveness. Comment:
Matsanga is well known as a self-serving media hound.
Matsanga took personal credit for allegedly frustrating
efforts by other ex-LRA negotiators to obtain weapons for
Kony from Eritrea, Libya and Sudan, said he does not support
the LRA and is interested only in peace, and asked PolOff for
assistance collecting approximately $40,000 allegedly owed to

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him by the Ugandan government for the Juba peace talks. End
Comment.

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An NGO View of Anti-LRA Operations
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6. (C) On October 15, the U.S. NGO Enough Project's
Uganda-based field researcher, Ledio Cakaj, praised the
professionalism of UPDF soldiers operating in Southern Sudan.
Cakaj, who had just returned from Southern Sudan, told
PolOff that the UPDF's professionalism stood in stark
contrast to poorly trained Government of Southern Sudan
(GOSS) security forces who Cakaj said were frequently drunk
and prone to making sexually explicit comments to the
European nuns serving as his translators. Cakaj said he
heard no accusations of human rights abuses against the UPDF
in Sudan, and that local Sudanese populations are eager for
the UPDF to remain because the Ugandans are the most
competent source of protection in the region.


7. (C) UPDF commanders based in the Southern Sudanese town of
Nzara said the offensive against the LRA is going well and
that Kony is close to defeat. They told Cakaj that Kony is
still in the Central African Republic (CAR) but attempting to
cross back into the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Cakaj observed some Ugandan causalities while visiting the
base and heard of an LRA ambush against UPDF forces just
outside of Nzara in early September. He hitched a ride back
to Entebbe on a UPDF helicopter returning with the body of
one dead Ugandan soldier.


8. (C) Cakaj speculated that if cornered Kony could attempt
a mass suicide in a 'Jonestown-like' scenario with his
entourage. He based this on a conversation with the
Sudanese wife of one of Kony's bodyguards, who lived in the
same compound as Kony's wives prior to the December 2008
regional offensive. She claimed Kony repeatedly said he
would not allow himself to be captured and warned his family
that, if captured, the UPDF would torture and kill all of
them. Cakaj connected this to a separate conversation with
northern Ugandan peace negotiator Betty Bigombe who said Kony
aspired to "die like Hitler."

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LRA War Crimes
--------------


9. (C) The Registrar of Uganda's newly-formed War Crimes
Division, Lawrence Tweyanze, told Poloff on October 26 that
Uganda is preparing to indict Col. Thomas Kwoyello for war
crimes. The UPDF captured Col. Kwoyello in the DRC in March

2009. He would be the first Ugandan charged domestically
with war crimes. The War Crimes Division of the High Court
was formed in 2008 as part of the Juba Peace Agreement which
stipulated the creation of a national level legal framework
to prosecute LRA members within Uganda. Tweyanze said the
High Court is waiting for final approval from the Department
of Public Prosecutions before moving ahead with war crimes
proceedings. Although the War Crimes Division was
established to provide a domestic alternative to extraditing
LRA leaders to the ICC, Tweyanze said the ICC may not accept
the division's decisions and could still pursue separate
indictments. Kwoyello already has 12 counts of kidnapping
with the intent to murder against him in the Ugandan court
system.


10. (C) Tweyanze said only Kwoyello and one other LRA
prisoner are currently under consideration for war crimes
prosecution. The GOU has given amnesty to other captured LRA
rebels. Under the Amnesty Act of 2000, Uganda must pardon
all those renouncing armed rebellion. Tweyanze said the
National Reconciliation Bill, which is pending approval in
Parliament, would also shift responsibility for war crimes
indictments from the DPP to the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
He said there are 15 to 20 LRA members at large that Uganda
would likely prosecute if apprehended.

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Comment: The Decline and Fall of the LRA
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11. (C) LTC Arop's capture will further accelerate the LRA's
downward spiral as it enables the UPDF to now focus its 10
battalions on Kony and his remaining elements in CAR.
Matsanga's reappearance and eagerness to collect his
outstanding debts before it is too late may indicate that he,
too, believes the LRA is nearing the end of its existence.
NGO worker reports from Southern Sudan confirming the

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professionalism of the UPDF and the respect it has engendered
amongst local communities are also encouraging, and we fully
expect that UPDF forces tracking Kony through CAR will
continue to conform to this high standard.
LANIER