UGANDA AND THE NILE: UPSTREAM STATES EAGER FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 001229

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR OES
DEPT FOR USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SENV EAGR EAID UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA AND THE NILE: UPSTREAM STATES EAGER FOR
AGREEMENT

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 00454

B. CAIRO 01408

C. CAIRO 01615

Classified By: Political Officer Tim Manarin for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On October 6, members of the Nile Basin
Initiative (NBI) Secretariat based in Entebbe told PolOff
that the NBI Technical Advisory Committee meeting held
September 28-29 in Uganda had failed once again to achieve a
cooperative breakthrough with their two northern neighbors.
Upstream nations are reportedly considering pressing on with
the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) despite Egyptian
and Sudanese objections. End Summary.

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Background: Nile Basin and the CFA
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2. (SBU) NBI was formally launched in 1999 as a partnership
of all Nile watershed states to develop the basin in a
cooperative manner, to share its substantial socioeconomic
benefits, and to promote regional peace and security (ref.
A). The regional body, which includes Burundi, the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda,
Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Eritrea as an observer, has
partnered with external donors such as the World Bank on
various cross-border water management and development
projects. NBI is led by a Council consisting of the region's
Ministers of Water Affairs and is advised by a Technical
Advisory Committee. The NBI Secretariat's headquarters are
co-located with Uganda's Ministry of Water in Entebbe.


3. (SBU) Nile Basin countries met in May 2009 in Kinshasa and
resolved to sign the CFA during a July 2009 Council of
Ministers meeting in Egypt (refs. B and C). The CFA, which
requires ratification by parliaments in six of the nine
members states to go into effect, would transform the NBI
into the Nile Basin Commission, a permanent regional treaty
organization with the authority to make legally binding
decisions on the management and development of Nile-related
bodies of water. Egyptian and Sudanese objections over the
obstruction of downstream water flow derailed the CFA's
proposed signing in July and led to a negotiated six-month
delay as a compromise.

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No Progress on CFA
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4. (C) Uganda's former Ambassador to the UN, Adonia Ayebare,
told the Mission that the September 28-29 Technical Advisory
Committee meeting was intended to "try and rescue" the CFA.
Ayebare reported that President Museveni shook up his Nile
Basin leadership team, demoting Water Minister Maria
Mutagamba and giving the Attorney General and Foreign
Ministry the lead, in hopes of enticing Egypt and Sudan to
support the CFA. Ayebare described Museveni's optimism as
"naive."


5. (C) In an October 6 meeting with the Mission, Gordon
Mumbo, a Kenyan who is the Regional Project Manager for the
NBI Secretariat, said Uganda's new negotiating team produced
no breakthroughs and talks with Egypt and Sudan over the CFA
remain stalled. Noting that CFA ratification required the
approval of only six members states, Mumbo said the seven
upstream nations (Burundi, DRC, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda,
Tanzania, and Uganda) were ready to move forward with a final
CFA draft during the Secretariat's next Technical Advisory
Committee meeting in December in Dar es Salaam. Mumbo said
the Technical Committee would then submit the document to the
Council of Ministers which next convenes in Egypt in February

2010.


6. (C) Two Ugandan members of the NBI technical committee,
Callist Tindimugaya and Mugisha Shillingi, identified Egypt
and Sudan and the main obstacles to the CFA. They said the
two downstream nations' insistence on the preservation of
historic water rights and uses was unacceptable to Uganda and
other upstream member states. Both Tindimugaya and Shillingi
reiterated the Ugandan government's preference for a regional
consensus. Tindimugaya, however, supported Mumbo's
contention that a CFA signing could occur regardless of
Egyptian and Sudanese opposition.


7. (SBU) At a press conference on the margins of the

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September 28-29 Technical Committee meeting in Kampala,
Egypt's Minister for Water Resources and Irrigation, Dr.
Mohamed Nasr Edin Allam, denied that Egypt was a roadblock to
an agreement saying, "we respect the right of every member to
use the Nile for development."

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Analyzing the CFA's Downstream Impact
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8. (C) Mumbo claimed that the exploitation of the Nile by
upstream nations like Uganda would have little impact on
downstream water levels. He said the main problem in the
region was not water scarcity but storage of heavy seasonal
downpours. Mumbo said joint management of the Nile would
prevent unilateral actions that have already violated
colonial era agreements, and identified Tanzania's unilateral
decision in 2004 to divert Lake Victoria water for irrigation
as one example. He said foreign investment has made it
easier for NBI countries to ignore the downstream impact of
water-related projects because most bilateral funded
projects, unlike the World Bank, do not require regional
approval. Mumbo explained that the decision-making process
in the proposed Nile Basis Commission would require the
approval of two-thirds of the Commission's member states
including at least one downstream country and is thus geared
toward building consensus. While Mumbo said did he not see
either Egypt or Sudan signing the CFA in the near-term, he
said the two downstream states would eventually join once
they realize the Commission poses no threat to their
interests.

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Comment: Patience with Downstream States Running Thin
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9. (C) Mumbo's prediction that Egypt and Sudan would allow
downstream states to press on with the CFA without them is
probably overly optimistic. Signing the CFA appears to be
increasingly dependent on how long the seven upstream nations
are willing to wait for their northern neighbors before
deciding to act on their own. The proposed Nile Basin
Commission could have a far-reaching impact on the
sovereignty of nations like Uganda that lie wholly within the
Nile Basin. Severe drought and explosive population growth
are increasing pressure on the Ugandan government to exploit
the hydroelectric and irrigation development potential.
Ensuring a functional and cooperative Nile Basin Commission
is therefore a key component of Uganda's water resource
development strategy.


10. (SBU) Plans to substantially increase U.S. assistance to
food security in the region may also have an impact on the
Nile Basin talks as assistance programs will likely involve
irrigation projects in several of the upstream countries.
USAID estimates that Uganda could receive an additional $415
million over the next five years in food security assistance,
and some of this money will likely be used for irrigation
projects designed to increase food production.
LANIER