Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KAMPALA1196
2009-10-16 06:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kampala
Cable title:  

UGANDA: OPPOSITION PARTIES WARN OF TROUBLE AHEAD

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM UG 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1547
RR RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #1196/01 2890625
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 160625Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1862
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0143
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 001196 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: OPPOSITION PARTIES WARN OF TROUBLE AHEAD

REF: A. KAMPALA 00979

B. KAMPALA 01055

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Aaron Sampson for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 001196

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: OPPOSITION PARTIES WARN OF TROUBLE AHEAD

REF: A. KAMPALA 00979

B. KAMPALA 01055

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Aaron Sampson for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In separate meetings with the Mission on
October 5, opposition party and National Resistance Movement
(NRM) leaders shared their views of the 2011 presidential
election process. Opposition parties warned of civil
disobedience and renewed violence if the Government of Uganda
(GOU) refuses to implement electoral reforms and reconstitute
Uganda's partisan Electoral Commission. The NRM's Chief Whip
accused opposition parties of making unreasonable demands and
said electoral reforms were forthcoming. If the executive
branch fails to submit meaningful reforms to Parliament,
Uganda may be headed for another, potentially violent,
showdown in advance of the February 2011 presidential
election. End Summary.

--------------
Opposition: Electoral Reform, or Else
--------------


2. (C) On October 5, members of the opposition Inter-Party
Cooperation (IPC) coalition told PolOff and visiting Uganda
Desk and DRL Officers that there would be violence if the GOU
fails to ratify key electoral reforms. The IPC groups four
of Uganda's five main opposition parties - the Forum for
Democratic Change (FDC),the Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC),
the Conservative Party (CP) and the Justice Forum (JEEMA).
Uganda's other main opposition party, the Democratic Party
(DP),is expected to join in the coming months. In May, the
IPC published a 35 page booklet of proposed electoral
reforms, many of which were recently submitted to Parliament.
The GOU will likely ratify some electoral reforms in
February 2010, but these will presumably be drawn not from
the IPC recommendations but from competing reforms proposed
by Uganda's Electoral Commission. Electoral Commissioners
have proposed 18 reforms, including extending their own
mandates from seven to ten years.


3. (C) The IPC is also demanding changes to the Electoral
Commission, which is clearly pro-NRM (ref. A). In September,
opposition groups led by the Forum for Democratic Change
(FDC) party submitted court documents challenging the
constitutionality of the Electoral Commission, alleging that
the professional experience and moral character of some of

its seven members fall short of constitutional requirements.
The Constitutional Court must now review the experience of
each Commissioner before ruling.


4. (C) Professing no confidence in either the Electoral
Commission or the legal system, FDC spokesman and IPC
coordinator Wafula Oguttu said the IPC would not participate
in any elections supervised by the current Electoral
Commission. He said only government reforms could stave off
a boycott or civil disobedience by opposition parties.
Wafula said the FDC would promote non-violent acts of civil
disobedience but warned that such disobedience would be
difficult to control. Noting that opposition leaders
appealed for calm following the seriously flawed presidential
elections of 2001 and 2006, Wafula said the FDC or other
opposition parties might not be inclined to issue similar
appeals this time around.


5. (C) JEEMA, the CP, and the UPC offered similar
predictions. JEEMA National Vice Chairman Muhamad Kateregga
observed that Ugandans are reconsidering whether violence is
a legitimate vehicle for changing the government now that so
many people are being "pushed to the wall." The UPC said it
too was preparing for the worst, and expressed hope that
President Museveni would take measures to reduce tensions if
only to preserve his legacy and accomplishments since taking
power in 1986. Comparing the September 10-12 riots (ref. B)
to electoral violence in Kenya, Wafula also sharply
criticized the international community for not condemning the
GOU's method of riot control.

-------------- --------------
Parliamentary Opposition Leader: Doors are Closing
-------------- --------------


6. (C) In a separate meeting with Parliamentary opposition
leader and senior FDC member Ogenga Latigo at his office in
Parliament on October 5, Latigo told the Mission he also
expects renewed violence between now and 2011. "If Kenya
comes," he said referring to the violence that marred the
2007 presidential election in neighboring Kenya, "it will be

KAMPALA 00001196 002 OF 002


very difficult to stop things, more so than in Kenya."
Latigo claimed appeals for non-violence from opposition
leaders like himself are problematic because President
Museveni will not allow the opposition access to the media.
He predicted that if tensions between the opposition and NRM
remain as they are now, any small spark could trigger a
serious situation.


7. (C) Like the IPC, Latigo placed the burden of defusing
tensions squarely on Museveni and emphasized the need for
electoral reform. Latigo said there is currently no dialogue
between the opposition and President Museveni. He stressed
the importance of finding "a way out" of the present deadlock
and noted that outcomes are being locked in as time elapses.
He urged the international community to press Museveni to
hold meaningful discussions with the opposition and to
fast-track opposition supported electoral reforms. NOTE:
Latigo was seriously injured in a car accident at 3 am on the
morning of Oct. 11 while driving from Gulu to Kampala. The
accident killed his driver and a fellow passenger. Latigo is
hospitalized but alert and expected to make a full recovery.
No foul play was involved. END NOTE.

--------------
NRM: Everything's Under Control
--------------


8. (C) In another meeting also on October 5, NRM Chief Whip
Daoudi Migereko told the Mission that electoral legislation
and constitutional amendments are in the works to ensure a
free and fair election, but offered no information on the
content of his assertion. He said the NRM always prepares
for the worst case scenario. (Comment: It is not clear
whether the NRM's "worst case" is losing the election or
winning an election marred by violence and irregularities.
End Comment.) Migereko said the NRM is dedicated to "do
everything as openly as possible" and "whatever it takes" to
avert violence by offering "hope" to unemployed, restive
youth.


9. (C) Migereko said no engagement with opposition leaders is
ongoing, criticized the opposition for leveling unreasonable
demands, and accused opposition leaders of trying to pack the
Electoral Commission with opposition party hacks. Responding
to rumors in Kampala of plans to alter the Constitution to
enable a candidate to win the presidency with a mere
plurality rather than an outright majority, Migereko said no
discussions of this kind have occurred within the NRM, and
noted that such a change is not necessary at this time
because the NRM believes Museveni will pass the 50% mark
during the first round of voting.

--------------
Comment: Trouble Ahead
--------------


10. (C) Many Ugandans and members of the international
community fear the deadly September 10-12 riots in Kampala
were a harbinger for what could occur between now and 2011 if
President Museveni and others fail to address the grievances
of the political opposition and of the broader and
increasingly disillusioned citizenry. The lack of dialogue
and hardening of rhetoric between the opposition and the NRM
are of serious concern. If the GOU proves unable to identify
common ground between opposition demands and what Museveni is
willing to accept, more and potentially deeper conflict is
likely.
LANIER