UGANDA: MUSEVENI AND BUGANDA KING MEET TO DEFUSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 001164

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS KDEM UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: MUSEVENI AND BUGANDA KING MEET TO DEFUSE
TENSIONS

REF: A. KAMPALA 01055

B. KAMPALA 01075

C. KAMPALA 01096

Classified By: Political Officer Tim Manarin for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni held direct
talks with the Buganda King for the first time in four years
on September 30. The meeting helps to reduce tensions
between Buganda and the central government following the
September 10-12 riots that left as many as 27 dead, but
reports indicate that Museveni and the King made little
progress toward resolving Buganda's demands for federal
autonomy and for the re-opening of the Buganda-run Central
Broadcasting Service (CBS) radio station. End Summary.


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Museveni and the King
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2. (C) In their first face-to-face meeting in four years,
Buganda King Ronald Mutebi met with President Museveni on
September 30 to discuss the rising tensions between the
ostensibly cultural Buganda Kingdom and Uganda,s central
government. These tensions led to violent riots September
10-12 (see ref A. for background). The event was widely
covered in the press with front page photos of Museveni
personally greeting the King. The lack of specifics has led
to wide speculation over what was discussed. Buganda,s
Attorney General Apollo Makubuya and Information Minister
Medard Sseggona Lubega separately told Embassy on October 1
that the discussion was largely cordial and did not delve
deeply into the main points of contention, which were left
for a later time. Major sticking points which contributed to
the deadly September 10-12 riots include Buganda's
long-standing demand for federal autonomy, the Kingdom's
staunch opposition to proposed land reforms, and the status
of the Buganda-run Central Broadcasting Service (CBS) radio
station, which was closed by authorities during the riots for
allegedly inciting violence.


3. (C) The two Baganda Ministers said that the King
unsuccessfully lobbied Museveni to reopen CBS radio. Local
press reports said the King rejected Museveni's demand that
CBS drop all of political programming as a prerequisite for
reopening. Minister Makubuya observed, however, that
Museveni put forward his best public face for the meeting by
giving the King a reception typically reserved for Heads of
State. Makubuya said Museveni previously received the King
in a more casual manner in years past.

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To Federate or Not To Federate
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4. (C) Local press reports that Museveni and the King ended
the meeting with a commitment to hold future meetings to
address the fundamental issues separating the two sides,
namely Buganda,s longstanding demands for greater political
power and autonomy. Beyond recovering all the 9,000 square
miles of land seized by the central government in 1966,
Buganda is stubbornly demanding a federal system designed to
recreate the kingdom as a semi-autonomous, regional
government. The Buganda plan would turn Buganda into a
constitutional monarchy of sorts, with an elected regional
parliament reporting to the Buganda King. The actual powers
of the King, whether real or ceremonial, remain unclear. The
Baganda claim Museveni promised this "federo" form of
government in the 1980s when Museveni needed Bugandan support
to win the so-called "bush war" that brought him to power.


5. (C) However, Buganda's federal plan is a non-starter for
the Ugandan government, and also many non-partisan pundits,
as it would essentially create a state within a state located
in the geographic, economic, and political center of the
country. Others have noted the incompatibility with
democracy of an empowered Buganda state led by an unelected,
unaccountable monarch. Others still point to the extremely
messy precedent it would set for Uganda,s other, smaller
cultural kingdoms. Some fear Buganda's "federo" demand is
the first step towards national disintegration. Museveni's
counter proposal, dubbed the "Regional Tier" system, would
give local districts the option to form larger,
democratically elected but largely powerless regional
governments. Following the riots, Museveni issued orders to
move ahead with the Regional Tier plan (ref. B),despite

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evident confusion over how it would be implemented.


6. (C) Buganda Attorney General Makubuya speculated that the
latest confrontation will cost Museveni Buganda's once-solid
political backing, and said it is now unlikely Museveni can
win the presidency in 2011 through a free and fair election.
Makubuya accused Museveni of deliberately trying to weaken
the Kingdom in advance of 2011 by encouraging various
sub-ethnic groups such as the Banyala, Baruuli, Basese, and
the Bakooki to agitate for their own kingdoms.

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Comment: Standoff Far from Over
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7. (C) The Baganda are Uganda's largest ethnic group and
comprise approximately 18 percent of the Ugandan population.
Although the Baganda have traditionally supported Museveni,
many believe Museveni may have permanently alienated them
through the promotion of his own Banyankole ethnic group
(ref. C) during his time in power and through his failure to
address growing political dissatisfaction within Buganda. If
Museveni has indeed written off capturing the wider Buganda
vote, he may be siding with smaller ethnic groups located
within the Buganda Kingdom to try to chip away at greater
Buganda and rescue one or two percentage points from central
Uganda in advance of the February 2011 presidential election.


8. (C) One would not have expected much from this initial
meeting between Museveni and the Buganda King given the
intractability of the underlying issues, especially
Buganda,s demand for a federal-style monarchy in the heart
of the country. However, there was great short-term value in
terms of calming the waters simply in having the two meet and
shake hands in public. Longer-term, Museveni and the
central authorities cannot accept Buganda's demand for
greater autonomy without endangering overall stability and
national unity. Yet Baganda nationalists continue to cling
to their demands for a federalized monarchy, and cannot
abandon it without losing their political raison d,etre. A
stalemate thus remains. How and when it is resolved will
have enormous implications not only for the results of the
2011 elections, but also for the country,s longer-term
stability.
HOOVER