UGANDA: NRM LAUNCHES MEMBERSHIP REGISTRATION DRIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KAMPALA 001097

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PINR UG
SUBJECT: UGANDA: NRM LAUNCHES MEMBERSHIP REGISTRATION DRIVE

REF: KAMPALA 01069

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Aaron Sampson for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Uganda's ruling National Resistance Movement
(NRM) recently embarked on a nation-wide campaign to register
all card-carrying party members. The program is spearheaded
by NRM Secretary General Amama Mbabazi, who doubles as
Museveni's Cabinet Minister for Security. Having fused the
NRM Secretariat with Ugandan state security services,
Mbabazi's registration campaign may ultimately end up
singling out opposition supporters while shoring up Mbabazi's
own eroded popularity within the NRM. End Summary.

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NRM National Membership Database
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2. (SBU) Local press reports indicate that the ruling
National Resistance Movement (NRM) has begun a nation-wide
program to register every card-carrying NRM member in advance
of the 2011 presidential elections. NRM Secretary General
Amama Mbabazi, who will head the registration campaign, said
the NRM would shortly deliver registration books to local
party leaders. "Every parish chief," said Mbabazi, "must
know and be able to identify who is NRM in his village."
Mbabazi said the NRM would use the registration lists and
responses to party questionnaires to craft a more responsive
platform in advance of the 2011 elections.

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When Party and State Security Collide
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3. (C) Mbabazi is also Minister of Security responsible for
overseeing Uganda's internal and external security services.
On August 21, Ambassador Adonia Ayebare, an on-again
off-again presidential insider who spent over a year as
Uganda's senior representative to the UN, told the Mission
that Mbabazi had merged the NRM's secretariat with Uganda's
security services and that both institutions now operate out
of the same headquarters building. Ayebare also said many
senior NRM leaders were unhappy with this fusion not because
it further blurred lines between party and state
institutions, but because it resulted in a dysfunctional
party secretariat.


4. (C) Last week the blurred line between the NRM and state
security led opposition Parliamentarians to walk out of
Parliament to protest a government decision to fund 5,000
secondary school "patriotism clubs" allegedly under the aegis
of the Security Ministry (reftel).

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Comment: Party Census or Political Tool?
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5. (C) The obvious fear is that Mbabazi's plan could be
another tool to isolate and identify individuals sympathetic
to opposition parties in advance of the 2011 presidential
elections. The image of local leaders - Mbabazi seems to
assume that all local chiefs belong to the NRM - carefully
inscribing the individual names of NRM party faithful into
ledger books provided by Security Minister Mbabazi is bound
to make independents and other Ugandans think twice about
their party affiliation and the sanctity of their vote.


6. (C) The NRM membership campaign probably also serves to
strengthen Museveni and Mbabazi's power within the party. NRM
leaders are likely looking to prevent an embarrassing repeat
of the 2006 legislative election when 37 NRM members,
frustrated by the lack of internal democracy within the
party, defeated hand-picked NRM candidates by running for
parliament as political independents. With the registration
campaign, party members could be identified earlier and
threatened with permanent alienation from the NRM if they
bolted to seek election as independents. Mbabazi may also
use his control of the registration campaign to boost his own
embattled position within the party by withholding
registration to those in the NRM who do not support him.
Mbabazi's position as Secretary General is up for re-election
in late-2010, and he will likely face stiff competition for
the NRM's contested top spot.
LANIER