KARZAI AND IEC ANNOUNCE SECOND ROUND

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003378

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: KARZAI AND IEC ANNOUNCE SECOND ROUND

Classified By: Ambassador Karl Eikenberry, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) Summary: At a Palace press conference on October 20
President Hamid Karzai announced that there would be a second
round of the elections, held in about two and a half weeks.
(IEC likely will delay final signature on its certification
of first-round results until October 26, so that the
constitutionally stipulated 14 days will fall on the
announced date of November 7.) He shared the dais with
Senator John Kerry and UNAMA SRSG Eide, after prolonged
negotiations which delayed the press conference more than
three hours. President Karzai called the first round of the
elections a national success and urged even more Afghans to
vote in the second round. Preparations for a second round
have been underway at the IEC and ISAF for some time and
earlier today the Minister of Interior issued an order to his
staff to begin preparations for a run-off. End Summary.

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The Press Conference and the Press Release
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2. (C) Over three hours later than initially scheduled and
after intense closed-door negotiations with Ambassador
Eikenberry, Senator Kerry, and members of his cabinet and
Palace staff, President Karzai made his public announcement
accepting the need for a second round of elections. He was
flanked by Eide and Kerry, and the U.S., French and British
Ambassadors. Karzai's statement was very positive in his
call for increased voter turnout and his characterization of
the runoff as an "opportunity" to strengthen the democracy
and Afghanistan's constitution.


3. (U) At the press conference, President Karzai said that he
had won in numerous provinces but also pointed out that
Abdullah and Bashardost had also gotten majorities in more
than one province. He referred to Ashraf Ghani's campaign in
an approving manner as well and expressed pleasure at how
positive it was that he and his rivals could list so many
different places across the country where they had each won
majorities. He never said that he had gotten less than 50
percent of the vote saying "no one knows who the real winner
is, only the Afghan people know who the winner is." He spoke
only about how there would be a second round and saying that
he was proud of Afghans for their participation in the
previous election and in this run-off. He emphatically asked
the international community to provide better security.


4. (U) Following Karzai's remarks, Senator Kerry emphasized
the importance of the rule of law and good governance in the
future as well as looking forward to stronger relations.
SRSG Eide emphasized the importance of the process and
following the laws and procedures as written. Both praised
the courage of the Afghan people for turning out to vote. In
the short question/answer session that followed, Kerry and
Karzai had the opportunity to deny, categorically, that there
was any "deal" or prearranged coalition government, although
Karzai said that the future government should represent
"national unity."


5. (U) The IEC's statement, publicly released during the
press conference, noted that according to their
organization's calculations Karzai was only 0.4 percent under
the required majority while the ECC decisions put Karzai more
than 3 percent under. The IEC also said in their statement
that they had "doubts" about the ECC decision but would be
proceeding in the "interests of the country."

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The Back Room: Delays and Deceit
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6. (S) Karzai held meetings at 10:00 with Afghan Jihadi
leaders and at 11:00 with around 200 MP's. According to one
MP who attended both meetings, Karzai told the group he was
accepting a second round verdict and asked for their
approval. The leaders told him that he had to actually have
the runoff election to be seen as legitimate according to
Afghan law. The MP's reportedly applauded Karzai at the end
of their meeting.


7. (S) When Kerry arrived at the Palace around 12:15, with a
final meeting with Karzai, a lunch, and a 1:45 pm press
conference scheduled, we learned that Karzai was planning to
announce that he accepted a second round but that the IEC was
going to then announce that he had obtained over 50 percent
of the vote, according to their own calculations. This would
have established a conflict between his "forced" statement
witnessed by superpowers and the "real" findings of the
Afghan election institution. Refusing to appear at the press
event until this was resolved, Kerry and Ambassador
Eikenberry spent several hours with Karzai and his key
advisors making it clear that the IEC's certification

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statement had to precede the press event. IEC chairman Ludin
was then summoned. In a moment of comedy in an otherwise
tense afternoon, Ludin first said it would take hours or days
to run his numbers and issue a certification, but then
responded to a direct order to do it by saying simply "I'll
have it finished 15 minutes after I get to my office."

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Second Round Planning
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8. (S) The Ministry of Interior today began planning for a
second round. After holding out in recent weeks, most
recently saying that preparations for a second round "would
send the wrong signal," Minister Atmar today ordered that his
Ministry staff begin examining the contingencies for a second
round. ISAF has said repeatedly that it is ready for a
second round and has begun planning to transport materials
and provide security. ISAF will be able to airlift a
significantly larger portion of the materials to and from
polling centers than before due to the reduced volume and
weight of materials in this round. The IEC already has the
indelible finger ink, ballots for Karzai and Abdullah, and
polling kits in its possession. It will print flipcharts for
training election workers locally, which will take only three
days.


9. (S) The IEC is discussing plans to fire poll workers for
whom there is clear and convincing evidence of participation
in fraud. For those poll workers about whom there are
questions but no convincing evidence, they will be moved to a
different work location for the second round. Most poll
workers are expected to return to work in the second round,
including female poll workers. However, the IEC is planning
to eliminate those locations that were not secured in the
first round or for which there was clear and convincing
evidence of fraud perpetrated.


10. (S) Comment: We now are focused on supporting second
round preparations and on helping to improve systems that
need more attention, especially security and fraud
prevention. Both the Abdullah and Karzai camps have given us
the same message today: please make the second round work,
and please keep away from any political dialogue or
negotiations in the coming days. We will do so, as the two
sides analyze the positive and negative sides for them of
actually competing in the second round versus a national
unity deal. The risk of a deal is the optic of the corrupt,
stalemated governments of the early 1990's, but there is
likely to be significant discussion -- an early indication of
this is that Abdullah, only hours after the press conference,
reached out to Karzai with a phone call of appreciation for
Karzai's positive message. We may recommend changing our
"hands-off" approach as conditions shift but for now, will
focus on election preparation and a positive message of
ongoing and enhanced U.S. engagement with Afghanistan. End
comment.
EIKENBERRY