AFGHAN MINISTERS UPBEAT ON MEETING NEXT FIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 003070

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINS MOPS EAID AF
SUBJECT: AFGHAN MINISTERS UPBEAT ON MEETING NEXT FIVE
YEARS, CHALLENGES

REF: A. KABUL 2161

B. KABUL 1914

C. KABUL 1568

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Classified By: Deputy Ambassador Francis Ricciardone for reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d)

1.(C) Summary: We have been engaging with key ministers as
well as the Karzai and Abdullah teams to lay the groundwork
for cooperation in addressing challenges and opportunities
over the next five years. In a meeting with ministers from
the Finance, Agriculture and four other key service
ministries and agencies on September 2, Ambassador Eikenberry
underscored the need to use increased U.S. assistance to
create momentum behind genuine improvements on the ground,
particularly with regard to governance. The Ministers
overall were upbeat in their assessments of a second Karzai
administration. They anticipated increased emphasis on the
sub-national level but expressed concern over the lack of
resources currently available for that task. Finance
Minister Zakhilwal mentioned plans to improve coordination
within the government. All acknowledged the corruption
issue, though one key player suggested charges of corruption
are exaggerated and called for "mutual accountability." On
reintegration of insurgent fighters, Presidential Advisor
Stanekzai reiterated his ideas on an "overarching strategy"
and laid out some of the challenges involved in its
implementation, including the need for major investment in
water and agriculture to create sustainable jobs. End
Summary.

2.(C) Ambassador Eikenberry, Coordinating Director for
Development and Economic Affairs (CDDEA) Ambassador Wayne and
other members of the Country Team met on September 2 at the
Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG) with its
Director, Jelani Popal, along with Minister of Finance
Zakhilwal; Minister of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock
(MAIL) Rahimi; Minister of Rural Rehabilitation and
Reconstruction (MRRD) Zia; Deputy Minister of Justice
Hashimzai; and Special Presidential Advisor on Internal
Security and Vice Chairman of the Demobilization and
Reintegration Commission Stanekzai to hear their views on
likely challenges and priorities in a second Karzai
administration. The discussion was followed up similar
discussions with security sector ministries (ref a) and with
opposition candidate Abdullah (ref b).

The U.S. Message
--------------

3.(C) Ambassador Eikenberry and CDDEA Ambassador Wayne
stressed the readiness of the U.S. to work constructively
with the next Afghan government, and called on the Afghans
for concrete and speedy action to create momentum for
positive change in governance. The Ambassador noted the
decline in U.S. public support for U.S. engagement in
Afghanistan as well as questions being asked by visiting
CODELs about when U.S. troops might move to the second rank,
behind Afghan security forces. He cautioned against
misinterpreting U.S. engagement as "rental" of Afghan
territory for self-interested geopolitical motives. Rather,
well-defined U.S. interests in Afghanistan need urgently to
be supported by positive actions from the Afghan government.
These include making the election process credible;
appointment of qualified individuals to national and
sub-national posts; decisive action against corruption,
including prosecutions; and the adoption of a solid,
coordinated reintegration strategy. The Ambassador urged
that these and other key issues be included in a presidential
inaugural address and form the elements of a new compact
between the president and the Afghan people. The
international community could then endorse this at a foreign
ministers, conference in Kabul.

Ministers Upbeat but Concerned over Resource Deficit
-------------- --------------

4.(C) The Afghan officials responded positively and were
upbeat on the prospects for progress under a second Karzai
administration. Presidential Advisor Stanekzai suggested
that getting out the message that good programs will continue
can help create positive momentum. Finance Minister
Zakhilwal predicted good programs now underway will indeed be
continued while others are improved. The need for
"inclusiveness" will make it impossible to base all
high-level appointments exclusively on merit, but he
expressed confidence that upcoming cabinet choices will be

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much improved. He again noted plans to streamline government
functions by clustering related ministries (Comment: This
point is consistent with talk we have heard about the
creation of "super-ministries." (addressed septel) End
comment). Zakhilwal speculated that President Karzai,s
likely focus on his legacy would make for better governance.
He pleadged to the President to deliver the kind of
inaugural address suggested by the Ambassador.

5.(C) The Finance Minister went on to stress the importance
of continued support for institution-building at both the
national and sub-national levels. The sub-national level is
particularly critical, he said, because it is there that most
people feel the lack of public goods and services. But
without the necessary resources, it is impossible for
sub-national governance to be relevant. IDLG Director Popal
echoed this sentiment and catalogued a long list of
provincial and district deficits: 10 governors without steady
electricity; 28 of 34 provinces with no permanent Provincial
Council building; 184 of 364 districts without a proper
office or residence for the district administrator; vast
numbers of districts with maintenance funds of only $4-12 per
month. This gap between needs and resources must be bridged
over the next five years if the President is to be able to
make good on his campaign commitment to increase the focus on
sub-national governance. Popal reiterated the President,s
support for the new sub-national governance policy (currently
in abeyance before the Cabinet, pending the installation of a
new government),including its derogation of additional
responsibilities to sub-national institutions.

6.(C) Popal singled out recruitment as a particular problem.
As an example, in both Zabul and Paktika provinces, 90
percent of the ILDG,s positions are unfilled. Minister
Zakhilwal cited the lack of resources for the sub-national
level as a contributing cause ) if officials lack the
wherewithal to be effective, why would qualified individuals
want to take such jobs? Several ministers cited poor
salaries as a major impediment and called for speeding up pay
and rank reform and introducing special pay differentials for
service in difficult slots. Minister of Agriculture,
Irrigation, and Livestock Rahimi concurred, noting how a
UNAMA driver makes more than a senior official in his
ministry. He pointed to insecurity, poor living and working
conditions and a lack of logistical support as additional
problems.

Fighting Corruption, on all Sides
--------------

7.(C) Afghan participants acknowledged the need for action on
corruption. IDLG Director Popal promised cooperation from
his agency, while Presidential Advisor Stanekzai called for
anti-corruption measures at the national and sub-national
level. Deputy Minister of Justice Hashimzai suggested a
system of reporting on court rulings to help render the
justice system more transparent. Finance Minister Zakhilwal
urged a focus on the causes of corruption, a setting of
realistic expectations and a targeting of the greatest
vulnerabilities, especially at the sub-national level. He
expressed a belief that the actual level of corruption in
government is lower than often depicted in the press and
proposed "mutual accountability" between the Afghan
government and its international partners, with each side
open to criticism and change.

Reintegration
--------------

8.(C) Stanekzai continues to be the point person in the
Afghan government on reintegration (ref C). He has now
adopted the phrase "peace and reintegration" in lieu of
"reconciliation" to allay concern that his focus is on
anything other than commanders and their foot soldiers. No
real security will be possible, he argued, so long as the
issues of foreign sanctuaries and logistical bases and the
Quetta Shura are left unresolved; but such regional questions
must be dealt with at the political level. For the
reintegration track, he called for an "overarching strategy"
linking the various programs and resources available to
Afghan authorities. He proposed a light organizational
structure, with a small coordination unit at the top, led by
Afghans but supported by international partners.
Implementation will need to be tailored to the particular
circumstances of a given locality. Among the issues any
reintegration program will have to address, Stanekzai singled
out protection of former insurgents from terrorists and

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Pakistan,s Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI); targeting by international forces and "other
organizations;" incentive packages; proper monitoring; and
the potential radicalization of detainees upon their release.
Key to success over the long-term will be major investment
in water and agriculture to create sustainable employment
opportunities for young men in the countryside.

9.(C) Comment: Amid widespread concerns over corruption as
well as the recent elections and the potential impact of both
on the legitimacy of any second Karzai administration, it is
easy to lose sight of the fact that the Karzai Cabinet
includes a number of talented individuals, including the
leaders of these key service ministries and agencies. The
members of this group stand a good chance of remaining, in
one capacity or another, as members of a second-round Karzai
team and certainly appear to be focused on their continued
role in national government. The priority they see for
sub-national governance is heartening, since this is a
principal target of our own efforts and so holds out the
promise of good synchronization. Their comments on
corruption were a bit more differentiated than we might have
preferred, but given Karzai,s sensitivity on the issue and
their membership in his inner circle, their reaction was not
surprising. We continue to see this group as excellent
potential partners for the future.

EIKENBERRY