Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KABUL2833
2009-09-19 06:09:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kabul
Cable title:  

KABUL ELECTIONS: WHAT DO ORDINARY AFGHANS THINK?

Tags:  KDEM PGOV PREL AF 
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VZCZCXRO9763
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #2833/01 2620609
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 190609Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1528
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002833 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: KABUL ELECTIONS: WHAT DO ORDINARY AFGHANS THINK?

REF: KABUL 2765

Classified By: Acting PolCouns Victoria Alvarado for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002833

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: KABUL ELECTIONS: WHAT DO ORDINARY AFGHANS THINK?

REF: KABUL 2765

Classified By: Acting PolCouns Victoria Alvarado for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (U) SUMMARY: Despite high-level consternation among
Afghan and international circles, informal polling of
ordinary Afghans indicates an apparent higher level of
satisfaction with the recent presidential election. Afghans
polled through PRTs uniformly expressed pride in what they
see as a generally successful, open election. Some Afghans
complained of fraud, others downplayed it, while still others
voiced concern over the uncertainty of a possible run-off,
saying that many braved Taliban threats in order to vote.
All hoped it would not be necessary to endure similar threats
to personal safety if a run-off were required. END SUMMARY.
--------------
Fraud Dominates Discourse at the Top
--------------


2. (C) On September 10, the Director of the Free and Fair
Elections in Afghanistan (FEFA) Nader Nadery told us that the
uncertainty regarding how to successfully conclude the
presidential election vote count has caused a pervading sense
of anxiety to settle over the electorate. He said most
Afghans are willing to wait to permit the Electoral
Complaints Commission (ECC) to investigate claims of fraud
committed during the elections, but their patience wouldn't
last more than a few weeks. The FEFA director said it was
important for the ECC to press the Independent Electoral
Commission (IEC) to investigate the many reported claims of
fraud committed by both Karzai and Abdullah supporters. He
said irrespective who is ultimately declared the winner, it
was essential for Afghan society to see, through this
process, that it was possible in a democratic society to
resolve a contested election according to the rule of law and
not through violence.


3. (U) On September 9, the National Democratic Institute
(NDI) expressed concern over the number of fraud complaints
filed with election authorities. According to NDI's
statement, "The credibility of Afghanistan's elections now
depends largely on the thorough investigation of these
complaints by the ECC." NDI's hard line on the existence of
election fraud was also expressed in the following statement,
"Unless the 'clear and convincing evidence of fraud' found by

the ECC is addressed, it will be impossible to determine the
will of the Afghan people."


4. (U) We had an understanding of what Afghan elites were
saying about the elections based on meetings with
interlocutors, political figures, and media reports.
However, our grasp of how Afghans in more ordinary
circumstances living in the provinces viewed the election was
lacking, so we asked our PRTs to informally poll Afghans,
asking the following questions:

- Do you understand the election process? Can you explain it?
- Did the elections process meet your expectations?
- How do you think it will turn out?

The answers suggest that ordinary Afghans were gratified that
Afghanistan pulled off what they generally saw as an open,
violence-free election. Snapshots of their opinions follow.

-------------- -
Beyond Kabul, Folks Just Happy They Could Vote
-------------- -


5. (U) PRT Herat reports that in a meeting for the ANSF and
local media a senior provincial government official expressed
glee over the news that Karzai had won the election. PRTOff
cautioned the official that the ECC had ordered a recount of
many polling stations' votes and vote results were not
official until this process played out. PRTOff believes that
the official's ignorance of the post-election process is
widespread. Separately, Herat PRTOff discussed elections
with Herati artists and reported they seemed to care little
about the elections, preferring instead to talk about art and
the economic situation in Herat. A second group of voters
surveyed said the media effectively informed the public about
election day procedures and although some cited fraud
concerns the prevailing sentiment was satisfaction that they
had been given the opportunity to vote in a an open election.



6. (U) PRT Kunduz reported that ordinary Afghans seem to be
fairly aware of the ongoing election stalemate and have a
fair understanding of how the post-election process should
play out. Kunduz Afghans understand that the ECC is separate
from the IEC and distrust the latter due to a belief that the

KABUL 00002833 002 OF 002


IEC is unduly influenced by Karzai. PRT Kunduz also reported
that Afghans there feel the will of the United States will
also heavily influence the outcome.


7. (U) Afghan voters surveyed in Nuristan were more evenly
divided in their feelings. A teacher said that Karzai would
bring stability through a policy of talking to the Taliban.
Other voters echoed this sentiment. However, other Nuristani
voters voiced disappointment with instances of candidates
stuffing ballot boxes. One teacher said "We can't say it was
a clean and clear election. People did not vote for
candidates, but candidates instead filled the ballot boxes
with their own forged votes".

--------------
Some Voted More Than Others
--------------


8. (U) A sampling of opinions from PRT Laghman shows
confidence in the elections. An Afghan soldier said the
election went well. He added, "It is why I like the process
of election, it was free and everyone had the right to vote."
A storekeeper agreed it was a good election and said all
Afghans participated and elected their future president. A
local religious leader concurred that local support for
Karzai was high and expressed concern at the prospect of a
runoff election saying, "We do not want a runoff election, it
is a threat to security." PRT Laghman FSN staff also
expressed enthusiasm for the election and said "Everybody
voted for his favorite candidate and we are very happy to
have had such a free election after 30 years of war". Media
reports similar enthusiasm for the electoral process among
Kabul voters while highlighting a darker side of the
elections. A merchant in Kabul said he voted for Karzai and
did so three times. He said, "In my village I saw people who
voted 10 times each. Why should I vote only once?"

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (U) From this small sample, one could surmise that there
is general satisfaction among ordinary Afghans that the
country successfully concluded a presidential election.
However, this is merely a small snapshot of what could be a
different larger picture. Further, public opinion could
shift once the official election results are released.
Nonetheless, this brief glimpse does suggest that the
relevance of charges of electoral fraud may be tied to the
socio-economic status of Afghans. Among the elites the issue
of fraud is paramount and dominates all political discourse.
At the other end of the spectrum, we found less concern over
the implications of fraud, and instead, a pervading "We did
it!" attitude.


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