ELECTORAL REFORM BILL UNLIKELY, FOR NOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 002815

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF
SUBJECT: ELECTORAL REFORM BILL UNLIKELY, FOR NOW

REF: A. KABUL 1042

B. KABUL 1230

Classified By: Acting PolCouns VAlvarado for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) While the Electoral Bill is currently listed on the
parliamentary calendar as a priority bill, the Ministry of
Justice asserts that altering the bill at this point is not
allowed because the scheduled May 2010 parliamentary
elections are less than a year away. However, most MPs
ascertain that because they did not start parliamentary
sessions until January, 2005, they have not yet started their
fifth year as parliamentarians, and therefore have until
January 2010 to change the bill. Notwithstanding these
intentions, the unresolved debate over the legal timeframe,
the controversial Kuchi nomad representation issue (reftels),
and chronic absenteeism in Parliament, make it unlikely that
the Bill will pass in time to affect the 2010 parliamentary
elections.


2. (SBU) Afghanistan's Electoral Bill establishes the
electoral system and regulates electoral issues, including
voting centers, observers, election campaigns, candidacy,
candidate lists, voting eligibility, counting, and
inter-agency cooperation on elections. The draft law
addresses presidential, parliamentary, provincial, district
and mayoral elections. Most MPs tell us they are
particularly interested in changing the allocation of Kuchi
nomad representation, as well as increasing the candidate
eligibility requirements. Currently Kuchis are entitled to
10 seats in Parliament, and nomadic Kuchis can vote for their
candidates from any province. Because most Kuchis are ethnic
Pashtuns, the non-Pashtun MPs generally seek to reduce the 10
seats, while Pashtun MPs defend the allocation and believe
any change in the number would require amending the
Constitution. Parliament has been discussing the Electoral
Law since late 2008. It was effectively killed in May 2009
by sending it to a nonexistent Commission on the
Implementation and Oversight of the Constitution.


3. (C) Many international community leaders here, as well as
some MPs, hope to use the Electoral Bill as a vehicle to
change from the current Single Non-Transferable Vote system
(SNTV) to a more political-party friendly Mixed Proportional
Representation (PR) system. The SNTV allows each voter the
opportunity to pick one candidate, thereby generating many
"wasted" votes that go to candidates who do not win, while
the winners receive very few total votes. The PR system
would allow voters to mark two ballots, one for a candidate
and one for a party, which would allow a portion of MPs to be
directly elected as in the SNTV system, while others would be
allocated on the party lists, and would therefore encourage
political party development. Interest in the PR system is
gaining momentum. However, due to the lack of a quorum, and
contention over Kuchi representation, this change remains
unlikely, for now.

EIKENBERRY