AFGHANISTAN/COUNTERNARCOTICS: UNODC REPORT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000280

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR INL, INP/AP, AF

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SNAR DEA EAID ECON PINR PREL PTER KPAO
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN/COUNTERNARCOTICS: UNODC REPORT
ANTICIPATES SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN OPIUM CULTIVATION

REF: KABUL 179


1. (U) SUMMARY: Kai Eide, the UN Secretary General's Special
Representative for Afghanistan, and Afghan Minister for
Counter Narcotics Khodaidad Khodaidad jointly announced the
2009 UN Office of Drugs and Crime's (UNODC) annual Opium
Rapid Assessment Survey (ORAS) at a February 1 press
conference in Kabul. (ORAS text provided to INL/AP
separately.) The report predicts opium poppy cultivation
will decrease significantly throughout Afghanistan for the
second year in a row, and suggests the number of poppy-free
provinces could increase from 18 to 22 this year. In their
remarks, Eide and Khodaidad cited the spread of governance
and security as one of the major factors contributing to the
anticipated decline in cultivation, and called on the
international community to support the Good Performers
Initiative (GPI),which provides directed development
assistance to provinces which succeed in decreasing or
eliminating poppy cultivation. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) At a February 1 press conference, held at the Kabul
headquarters of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan
(UNAMA),SRSG Kai Eide and Afghan Minister of Counter
Narcotics Khodaidad jointly presented the UNODC's 2009 Opium
Rapid Assessment Survey. Both men were upbeat in their
presentations, and stressed that this year's survey predicts
a significant decrease in poppy cultivation in all regions of
Afghanistan (although they were careful not to cite a
specific figure.) They also praised the efforts of the
Afghan government and the international community in reducing
poppy cultivation for the second year in a row. The survey
cites three main factors contributing to reduced cultivation
in 2009: 1) drought conditions in many parts of the country
which make it difficult to grow poppy; 2) lower prices for
poppy due to an oversupply of opium in the country; and 3)
improved governance and security in many areas as the result
of Afghan and coalition activities last year. Jean-Luc
Lemahieu, the head of UNODC's Kabul office, also spoke at the
event, noting that the survey is conducted throughout
Afghanistan using interviews with farmers as an indicator of
their intentions to plant poppy and other illicit crops like
marijuana. He stressed that the report is only an indicator;
further efforts will be needed to ensure the predicted
decline in cultivation is realized.

IMPROVED GOVERNANCE HELPS DECREASE POPPY
--------------


3. (U) Eide and Khodaidad both stressed that improved
governance on the national and provincial levels is a major
factor in decreasing poppy cultivation. In 2006 there were
six poppy free provinces, in 2007 13, and in 2008 18
provinces. In 2009, the UNODC expects as many as 22
provinces to be poppy free, partly as a result of individual
governors taking measures to expand the rule of law,
security, and development activity in their provinces.
Coordinated support for such measures, especially from the
Ministries of Counternarcotics, Interior and Defense, as well
as from the Internal Directorate for Local Government (IDLG),
is vital to their success. Provinces such as Nangarhar and
Helmand, they noted, have very active governors whose efforts
should be supported by the international community as well as
the Afghan government. In Helmand province, for example,
Governor Mangal's 26,000 hectare (ha) Food Zone campaign
combines public information, development assistance, and law
enforcement (backed by military force) in a coordinated
effort to reduce poppy cultivation and expand governance.
The early success of this approach has created a backlash by
local Taliban and other insurgent groups, which have attacked
wheat distribution centers, voter registration centers and
are now attacking the U.S.-supported Poppy Eradication Force
(PEF) that began eradication in late January. Despite such
resistance, UNODC expects poppy cultivation in Helmand to
decline significantly this year.

UN SEEKS SUPPORT FOR GOOD PERFORMERS INITIATIVE
-------------- --


4. (U) Eide, Khodaidad, and Lemahieu lauded the Good
Performers Initiative (GPI) during the press conference, and
called on international donors to provide tangible support to
the program. The GPI provides up to USD 10 million in
targeted development assistance to provinces which have

KABUL 00000280 002 OF 002


either reduced poppy cultivation by more than 10 percent or
become completely poppy free. The program is currently funded
entirely by the U.S. (State/INL) and UK (FCO) governments,
and is administered by the MCN working closely with
provincial governors. As the MCN uses UNODC eradication
verification figures as the basis for rewards, a significant
decrease in cultivation will create additional demand for
funds; Eide and Khodaidad encouraged potential donor
countries to consider participating in the program. (Note:
UNAMA and NAS Kabul are preparing material to share with
potential donors countries about the program.)

COMMENT:
--------------


5. (U) The 2009 ORAS survey predicts a significant decrease
in poppy cultivation but does not provide a firm number. The
actual size of any decrease will not be clear until the UNODC
publishes its final report in August, after the current
growing season is over. Drought conditions, lower opium
prices, and better governance are all factors in the probable
decrease this year. While weather and opium prices cannot be
accurately predicted each year, improved governance,
security, and targeted development are the key to sustaining
such reductions over time. Experience in provinces such as
Nangarhah, Badakhshan, and, this year, Helmand, demonstrate
clearly that when farmers know their government leaders will
enforce the law -- including by eradicating illicit crops
when necessary -- they are less likely to cultivate poppy.
Providing timely and visible rewards to provinces choosing to
grow less poppy also helps convince potential growers that
their long-term interests are better served through
legitimate activities.


WOOD