IEC RELEASES RESULTS WITH QUESTIONABLE BALLOTS;

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 002748

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: IEC RELEASES RESULTS WITH QUESTIONABLE BALLOTS;
ECC CALLS FOR PARTIAL RECOUNT AND AUDIT

REF: KABUL 2690

Classified By: D/PolCouns V. Alvarado for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) Summary: Following the Independent Election
Commission's (IEC) reported internal decision on September 7
to allow some suspect polling stations to be included in the
vote count, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) voted
the next day to order "an audit and recount of the ballots
cast at polling stations that exceed certain thresholds that
have proven to be strong indicators of electoral
irregularities." The ECC's efforts to keep the electoral
process on track were rattled later on September 8 when the
IEC released results from 91.6 percent of the polling
stations processed, reportedly including some questionable
results. Representatives from domestic and international
USG-funded election monitoring organizations may declare the
2009 elections illegitimate in their final reports on the
grounds that the IEC is not functioning independently.
Karzai has publicly and privately accused the international
community of thwarting his bid for re-election by meddling in
the vote count. The ECC decision appears to be an effort to
get the IEC to fulfill its responsibilities; Karzai is likely
to lash out at the ECC as a foreign-dominated entity. End
Summary.

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ECC Calls for National Audit and Recount
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2. (C) According to one of the ECC Commissioners, the ECC
met the afternoon of September 8 with the IEC to press the
IEC to take a firmer stand on electoral fraud. The ECC then
released an official order stating that, based on allegations
of fraudulent voting in several areas of the country where an
excess of ballots were cast for one candidate despite
allegedly low voter turnout, and based on initial
investigations by the ECC in the provinces of Ghazni,
Khandahar, and Paktika, in cooperation with IEC auditors,
"the ECC decides in accordance with its authority under
Articles 49(2) and 54(e) of the Electoral Law that it is
necessary and appropriate to conduct an audit and recount the
ballots cast at polling stations that exceed certain
thresholds that have proven to be strong indicators of
electoral irregularities.. . Therefore, the ECC hereby orders
the IEC to conduct an audit and recount of ballot boxes for
the Presidential election in polling stations nationwide for
which the preliminary results indicate either i) that the
total number of votes cast in a polling station is equal to
or greater than 600, which represents a 100 percent turnout
based on the IEC's pre-poll estimates of likely voters in
that locations, or ii) that any one Presidential candidate
received 95 percent or greater of the total valid votes cast
in the polling station, provided that the total number of
votes cast in the polling station exceeds 100."


3. (U) The ECC order notes that, "Such audits must be
conducted in the presence of Observers, agents, and
representatives of the ECC." It also states that, "the ECC
is still conducting investigations into the majority of
complaints it has received about polling and counting, and
the present decision in no way limits its authority to
investigate and sanction electoral violations where it finds
clear and convincing evidence. The ECC is taking this
decision to audit and recount results that have been
published and raise significant suspicion of fraud so that
the ECC and the IEC can properly investigate. Any decision
to exclude subject ballots will only be taken after clear and
convincing evidence had been obtained."

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IEC AND KARZAI CAMP PREEMPTION
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4. (C) The ECC's efforts to keep the electoral process on
track were rattled later in the day when the IEC released
results from 91.6 percent of the polling stations processed,
reportedly including results from some questionable polling
stations categorized as "mid-range" fraud sites (cases where
total number of votes cast in a polling station is equal to
or greater than 600 or where any one Presidential candidate
received 95 percent or greater of the total valid votes cast
in the polling station). According to the latest IEC partial
release, Karzai obtained 54.1 percent, Abdullah 28.3 percent,
Bashardost 9.2 percent, and Ghani 2.7 percent. While, the
IEC announced that over 600 polling stations (including the
447 previously announced as annulled) have been quarantined,
we understand that some ballots falling under the category of
mid-range fraud may have been included in this tally.
(Comment: We are working to verify the extent to which

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questionable ballots, and what kind, were included in this
latest tally and will report Septel. End Comment.)

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Observers On Orange Alert
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5. (C) We met on September 7 with representatives from the
Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA),
National Democratic Institute (NDI),Democracy International,
the Asia Foundation and the International Republican
Institute (IRI) to discuss the views of these USG-funded
observer groups who monitored the August 20 presidential and
provincial council elections. We also discussed the
implications of reports that the IEC had declared it would
not set aside suspicious ballots tallied at 477 voting
stations and instead would allow all votes to be counted.
The consensus was that this move would so taint the election
results that neither the Afghan voters nor the international
community could or would accept the election results as a
legitimate reflection of the will of the Afghan people.


6. (C) The observer representatives discussed the
consequences of a reported IEC decision that the IEC did not
have legal authority to rule on the validity of sequestered
ballots taken from several hundred voting stations. The IEC
will apparently turn to the ECC for a ruling on how these
ballots should be handled. This seems unnecessary according
to Article 60 of the Electoral Law, which grants both the IEC
and ECC the authority to quarantine or permanently remove
ballots as they deem fit. Such a move would not only
undermine the legitimacy of the August presidential election,
but would call into question the ability of the IEC to
credibly function in any future Afghan election.

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UNDP/ELECT Also Criticized
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7. (C) NDI, Democracy International and FEFA
representatives cited troubling practices observed from both
the IEC and UNDP/ELECT. USAID and Carney Team
representatives pointed out that UNDP/ELECT failed to enact
stronger measures to maintain the integrity of the voting
process, such as maintaining a chain of custody for ballots
and being transparent with donors in its decision-making.
Several representatives commented that the IEC seemed to be
"stage-managing" the vote tally to prepare the electorate for
a late surge in votes leading to a Karzai victory.


8. (C) Election monitors were unanimous that the IEC could
preserve the legitimacy of the election results by choosing
to process the ballots contained in the quarantined voting
stations according to international norms. They expressed
skepticism that the IEC would do so, agreeing that their
respective organizations would most likely be forced to
report in coming months that the IEC and UNDP/ELECT failed to
ensure that a legitimate election had taken place.

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Gaining Traction on Our Messages to the Afghan People
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9. (C) Following the meeting, Embassy Kabul issued a press
statement reiterating our position that like the Afghan
people we take allegations of electoral fraud very seriously.
On September 8, UNAMA SRSG Eide issued a press statement
that reinforces our message. Our statement was also shared
with FEFA, which has indicated that it may also issue its own
press release.

Embassy Kabul Statement:

"The United States and the international community are
looking to the Independent Electoral Commission to carry out
its legal mandate to count all votes and to exclude all
fraudulent votes. Like the Afghan people, we are taking
allegations of fraud in the election process very seriously.

Anything less than rigorous vetting would call into question
the credibility of the announced results. A legitimate
electoral process is vital to the ability of the
international community to partner with a newly-elected
Afghan government."

UNAMA Statement:

"This week is expected to see the end of the tallying process
conducted by the Independent Election Commission (IEC). Over
the next days, the election will then move to the next state

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- the adjudication of complaints by the Electoral Complaints
Commission (ECC). All of us are keen to see the processes
move forward without delay so that a final and just outcome
is arrived at.

In light of the concerns that have arisen over
irregularities, I am calling today on the IEC and the ECC to
redouble their efforts to ensure full rigour in their work at
every stage. This includes excluding from the preliminary
count results from ballot boxes where there is evidence of
irregularities.

The integrity of these elections is of the utmost importance
to Afghanistan and to its international partners. I look to
both the IEC and ECC to carry out their mandated work to high
standards and to ensure that the final outcome faithfully
reflects the will of Afghanistan's voters." (Poc:
PAS/Elections Team SRAP Amiri).


10. (S) Comment: Karzai has publicly and privately accused
the international community of thwarting his bid for
re-election by meddling in the vote count, of trying to make
him more malleable to foreign interests, and inciting the
international media. The ECC decision appears to have been
an effort to cut off Karzai at the pass, but the IEC's
announcement of most of the remaining votes, including
questionable ones, has weakened that effort. Karzai is
likely to lash back that the ECC is a foreign instrument. If
he does so, however, he will risk his credibility once the
audit and recount reveals the likely scope of electoral
manipulation. Karzai appears determined to win the election
on the first round, and he is using the international
community to divert public attention.
EIKENBERRY