IEC TAKES POSITIVE STEP TOWARDS FINALIZING FRAUD

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002690

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: IEC TAKES POSITIVE STEP TOWARDS FINALIZING FRAUD
PROCEDURES

REF: KABUL 2686

Classified By: PolCouns Annie Pforzheimer, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)
Commissioners took a key step September 6 towards addressing
claims of fraud in Afghanistan's presidential and provincial
council vote. The IEC was supposed to rule on criteria for
including or excluding all the ballots quarantined to date,
but instead made a partial decision that excludes results
representing the most egregious examples of fraud. The
Commissioners will meet again September 7 to decide on
remaining quarantined ballots. The IEC's decisions on this
issue could affect whether or not President Karzai has a
first round victory. The IEC also announced on September 6
voting results constituting 74.2 percent of the polling
stations. With these two developments, the IEC may be able
to announce 100 percent of their preliminary results by
September 8. However, the Electoral Complaints Commission
(ECC) still has an estimated two to three weeks to finish
investigating and adjudicating nearly 700 Category A
complaints, as well as any IEC numbers they disagree with, so
the process is far from over. End Summary.

--------------
The Quarantine Question
--------------


2. (S) On September 4, we received broad and credible
allegations that the IEC was preparing to release 100 percent
of its count, including all then-quarantined ballots, in a
response to heavy political pressure from President Karzai.
Embassy conferred with the UN and UK, and conveyed our
concern about such an action to senior Karzai advisors and
Ministers. In a meeting September 5, Karzai Chief of Staff
Daudzai confirmed to D/Ambassador Ricciardone that they were
watching this issue carefully, would ensure that the IEC
abided by its own rules, and hoped that Karzai would obtain
more than 50 percent without needing the quarantined ballots
at all. We also spoke to Minister of Interior Atmar, who
also said he would urge that the IEC perform its functions in
accordance with the law.


3. (C) Dr. Abdullah Abdullah's September 5 press conference
upped his rhetoric attacking fraud, apparently spurred by the
same reports that the IEC would release all quarantined
votes. Abdullah's team gave us a copy on September 6 of
their most recent complaint to the Electoral Complaints
Commission, which claimed that the IEC ignored its own
regulations and had included results from 393 suspicious
polling stations, representing over 150,000 votes for Karzai.


4. (C) The IEC Commissioners met September 6 to review the
IEC's Operations Group (comprised of the Commission's
technical experts) recommendations on objective criteria for
excluding or including an estimated 500-700 polling center
results, that had been quarantined based on a number of
technical "triggers" (such as 100 percent votes for one
candidates or excessive ballots per box.) The Commissioners'
decision was partial. They opted to permanently exclude 447
polling stations (there are 2-6 stations per polling center)
from the count but deferred a decision on the remaining ones.


Those excluded so far include polling stations where:

-- 600 or more votes are recorded and 95 percent or more
votes are for one candidate;
-- the total votes recorded for the polling center excludes
the total ballot papers issued to the polling center;
-- there are more than 1,000 votes recorded;
-- the polling center was supposed to be open but was
actually closed on the day of the election;
-- the above criteria are not found but an audit team has
examined them and finds them to be fraudulent.


5. (S) The UN and others, including a key technical source
from within the IEC (reftel),told us that they are pleased
at the decision to exclude these 447 polling stations but
somewhat concerned about the remaining ones. The IEC
technical official claimed that it is only due to constant
international pressure and media scrutiny that the IEC
Commissioners kept from slipping in some unsavory results
into the vote tally. He added that he believes this latest
decision makes a second round of elections much more likely.
D/Ambassador Ricciardone spoke again to Daudzai late
September 6, commending the IEC's first step in this process.
Daudzai agreed this was a positive development.

-------------- --------------
Results Timeline: Complete Preliminary Results by September 8?

KABUL 00002690 002 OF 002


-------------- --------------


6. (U) At a press conference September 6, the IEC announced
the following results which represent 74.2 percent of the
total polling stations or 18,877 out of 26,312 polling
stations open on Election Day:

Karzai: 2,089,179 (48.6 percent)
Abdullah: 1,361,247 (31.7 percent)
Bashardost 457,909 (10.7 percent)
Ghani: 115,535 (2.7 percent)
Yaseni: 42,306 (1.0 percent)
Tanai: 27,343 (0.6 percent)
Mangal: 20,529 (0.5 percent)
Other: 181,278 (4.2 percent)

Total number of valid votes counted: 4,295,326

Provided it has all its criteria for excluding quarantined
ballots in place as of September 7, the IEC may be able to
finish its entire preliminary vote count and post 100 percent
of the results by September 8 -- their current goal.

--------------
ECC: Slow and Steady
--------------


7. (C) Once the IEC count is over, the final stage of the
process is the ECC's investigation and adjudication
mechanism. The ECC has received 2,301 complaints to date,
out of which 2.172 have been processed and of those 698
categorized as "A" (those which could affect the election
outcome.) A few complaints have been already reviewed and
dismissed -- including a video clip aired on "Tolo" TV
allegedly showing ballot stuffing. The ECC traced the ballot
numbers visible in the clip to a polling station in Wardak
province, where Karzai actually only received 13 votes. The
ECC already has visited five provinces and will announce more
of its rulings this week. Their low profile and slow pace
have made some observers concerned about their ability to
handle the volume of complaints.


8. (C) If the IEC allows many of the still-quarantined
ballots through, the ECC is allowed to review those ballots
should it choose to do so. This task -- which the IEC said
publicly is the safeguard to their choice of exclusion
criteria -- poses two risks: it potentially extends the
already-lengthy ECC review period, and it puts in place an
adversarial relationship between the partly
internationally-staffed ECC and the Karzai-appointed IEC.


9. (C) For some Afghans, once the IEC reaches its 100 percent
mark for preliminary results, this extraordinarily complex
counting process will appear to be over. Karzai partisans
may find it unacceptable that a further review of the results
(by a foreign-dominated institution) could lower their
candidate's vote total, and try to use the IEC's results to
claim an early victory. Abdullah, seeing this dynamic, will
likely step up his verbal protests at any perceived IEC
dereliction of its duty.
EIKENBERRY