Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KABUL2685
2009-09-04 14:05:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kabul
Cable title:
LATEST ELECTIONS RESULTS AND THE COMPLAINTS
how-toVZCZCXRO8970 PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL DE RUEHBUL #2685/01 2471405 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 041405Z SEP 09 FM AMEMBASSY KABUL TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1317 INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002685
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: LATEST ELECTIONS RESULTS AND THE COMPLAINTS
TIMELINE
Classified By: Polcouns Annie Pforzheimer, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002685
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: LATEST ELECTIONS RESULTS AND THE COMPLAINTS
TIMELINE
Classified By: Polcouns Annie Pforzheimer, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (SBU) With 60.3% percent of polling station results
announced as of September 2, Karzai has 1,744,428 votes (47.3
percent) with Abdullah at 1,201,838 votes (32.6 percent).
The 3,689,715
valid votes counted so far suggest a nationwide vote count of
approximately 6 million votes. This
total is lower than the 7.1 million who voted for president
in 2004 and the 5.8 million who voted in parliamentary
elections in 2005. Since there is no voter registration
list, we cannot measure voter turnout percentages in
traditional ways. The next tranche of results is scheduled
to be announced at 1700 Kabul time on September 5; we
anticipate the IEC will announce the cumulative results of 75
percent of polling centers.
Irregularities and Complaints
--------------
2. (SBU) The IEC is conducting internal audits and
investigations of polling centers where fraud is suspected,
and based on these, the IEC is decides which ballots to
include in the national tally. Because there was less
observer presence and more security problems in southern
provinces, the IEC has scrutinized these provinces more
carefully and released a smaller percentage of their results.
The IEC may -- on its own -- exclude ballots from the count.
3. (C) The IEC has reportedly quarantined some 300
Tamper-Evident Bags (TEBs) during the counting process, 250
of which are expected to be very problematic. (Note: This
information is not official, because the IEC processes are
opaque on this issue; Embassy Election Team members present
as observers at the Tally Center have compiled this informal
count. End Note.) Each TEB represents a polling center with
four to seven polling stations. If nullified, post estimates
these 250 TEBs could represent
250,000 to 375,000 votes depending on turnout levels (or
about 4 to 6 percent of 6 million votes),
based on a range of 200-300 voters per polling site.
UNDP-ELECT and other sources have viable concerns that IEC
leadership is, under political pressure, considering
suspending investigation into some problematic TEBs and
entering them into the tally stream.
4. (SBU) The ECC has received 2,187 complaints. 39.4
percent involved polling irregularities (i.e. "ghost"
voters),29.6 percent concern intimidation/campaigning, and
11.4 percent involve access to polling stations. Of the
total, 652 are &Category A8 that if determined to be valid
could materially affect the vote count. Category A
complaints are being given priority for investigation and
adjudication. The ECC has 200 staff across the country
conducting investigations including in Ghazni, Kandahar,
Paktika, Kabul, Baghlan, and Konduz. The ECC has broad
authority to exclude ballots from the tally, order a recount,
or even a order a re-polling. The IEC and ECC are working
closely together.
Complaints Timeline
--------------
5. (SBU) The period for filing complaints with the ECC about
voting day fraud has ended. The ECC will only continue to
accept complaints about the tally process.
Timeline Estimates (All subject to change)
Sept. 7-10 -- Preliminary nationwide results released.
Sept. 21-23 - Investigation and complaints period ends. ECC
is unwilling to estimate time required
until it makes more progress assessing the current batch of
complaints. The ECC said they would have a better estimate
next week.
IEC certification of the results would take place after the
complaints period ends.
Mid-October - run-off, if necessary. Election law requires
it be held within two weeks of
certification. The IEC says it is prepared logistically for
second round. UNDP affirmed the
same to us this week, noting it has the appropriate contracts
in place for procurement of supplies.
The security forces need approximately two weeks notice to
prepare for a second round. Some remaining questions include
the issue of whether to open a center that experienced major
irregularities in a
first round, and whether IEC will vet employees based on
allegations of fraud.
KABUL 00002685 002 OF 002
EIKENBERRY
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: LATEST ELECTIONS RESULTS AND THE COMPLAINTS
TIMELINE
Classified By: Polcouns Annie Pforzheimer, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (SBU) With 60.3% percent of polling station results
announced as of September 2, Karzai has 1,744,428 votes (47.3
percent) with Abdullah at 1,201,838 votes (32.6 percent).
The 3,689,715
valid votes counted so far suggest a nationwide vote count of
approximately 6 million votes. This
total is lower than the 7.1 million who voted for president
in 2004 and the 5.8 million who voted in parliamentary
elections in 2005. Since there is no voter registration
list, we cannot measure voter turnout percentages in
traditional ways. The next tranche of results is scheduled
to be announced at 1700 Kabul time on September 5; we
anticipate the IEC will announce the cumulative results of 75
percent of polling centers.
Irregularities and Complaints
--------------
2. (SBU) The IEC is conducting internal audits and
investigations of polling centers where fraud is suspected,
and based on these, the IEC is decides which ballots to
include in the national tally. Because there was less
observer presence and more security problems in southern
provinces, the IEC has scrutinized these provinces more
carefully and released a smaller percentage of their results.
The IEC may -- on its own -- exclude ballots from the count.
3. (C) The IEC has reportedly quarantined some 300
Tamper-Evident Bags (TEBs) during the counting process, 250
of which are expected to be very problematic. (Note: This
information is not official, because the IEC processes are
opaque on this issue; Embassy Election Team members present
as observers at the Tally Center have compiled this informal
count. End Note.) Each TEB represents a polling center with
four to seven polling stations. If nullified, post estimates
these 250 TEBs could represent
250,000 to 375,000 votes depending on turnout levels (or
about 4 to 6 percent of 6 million votes),
based on a range of 200-300 voters per polling site.
UNDP-ELECT and other sources have viable concerns that IEC
leadership is, under political pressure, considering
suspending investigation into some problematic TEBs and
entering them into the tally stream.
4. (SBU) The ECC has received 2,187 complaints. 39.4
percent involved polling irregularities (i.e. "ghost"
voters),29.6 percent concern intimidation/campaigning, and
11.4 percent involve access to polling stations. Of the
total, 652 are &Category A8 that if determined to be valid
could materially affect the vote count. Category A
complaints are being given priority for investigation and
adjudication. The ECC has 200 staff across the country
conducting investigations including in Ghazni, Kandahar,
Paktika, Kabul, Baghlan, and Konduz. The ECC has broad
authority to exclude ballots from the tally, order a recount,
or even a order a re-polling. The IEC and ECC are working
closely together.
Complaints Timeline
--------------
5. (SBU) The period for filing complaints with the ECC about
voting day fraud has ended. The ECC will only continue to
accept complaints about the tally process.
Timeline Estimates (All subject to change)
Sept. 7-10 -- Preliminary nationwide results released.
Sept. 21-23 - Investigation and complaints period ends. ECC
is unwilling to estimate time required
until it makes more progress assessing the current batch of
complaints. The ECC said they would have a better estimate
next week.
IEC certification of the results would take place after the
complaints period ends.
Mid-October - run-off, if necessary. Election law requires
it be held within two weeks of
certification. The IEC says it is prepared logistically for
second round. UNDP affirmed the
same to us this week, noting it has the appropriate contracts
in place for procurement of supplies.
The security forces need approximately two weeks notice to
prepare for a second round. Some remaining questions include
the issue of whether to open a center that experienced major
irregularities in a
first round, and whether IEC will vet employees based on
allegations of fraud.
KABUL 00002685 002 OF 002
EIKENBERRY