PRO-KARZAI MPS ASK EMBASSY CLARIFICATION OF U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002636

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: PRO-KARZAI MPS ASK EMBASSY CLARIFICATION OF U.S.
ELECTION POLICY

Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Victoria Alvarado for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Ambassador Eikenberry and Election Team
Ambassador Carney reiterated to a meeting of 40 pro-Karzai
MPs our position of neutrality regarding presidential
candidates and our commitment to helping the Afghan people
achieve a successful and credible electoral process.
Ambassador Eikenberry called for patience and restraint to
allow the electoral process to take its proper course. The
Ambassadors dispelled assertions from the audience that
S/SRAP Holbrooke had "ordered" a second round, emphasizing
that this decision is in the capable hands of the Afghan
Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). While the pretext
for the meeting, requested by Karzai's chief of staff, was to
discuss un-sourced allegations in foreign and domestic media
that S/SRAP Holbrooke had told Karzai a second round would be
necessary, the real motive likely was to persuade us to
endorse a Karzai victory on the first round, regardless of
the level of fraud found by the Independent Electoral
Commission (IEC) and the Electoral Complaints Commission
(ECC). End Summary.

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To Repeat - The IEC Will Determine the Election Outcome
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2. (C) Ambassador Eikenberry and Election Team Ambassador
Carney met at the Embassy on August 30 with a group of
approximately 40 pro-Karzai parliamentarians the afternoon of
August 30. They reiterated to the MPs U.S. neutrality
regarding political candidates and our commitment to helping
the Afghan people achieve a successful and credible electoral
process run by Afghans. The last-minute meeting, called at
the request of Karzai,s Chief of Staff, Umer Daudzai,
included pro-Karzai MPs from 20 provinces. Carney emphasized
that these elections have been run by Afghans through the IEC
and the ECC. He explained that through the UNDP, the
international community has assisted these Afghan efforts
with over USD 130 million and with firm moral support. The
international community, including the United States,
remained clear that the IEC will decide Afghanistan's
electoral outcome. The IEC will certify the election results
once the ECC adjudicates all critically important complaints,
Carney said.


3. (C) Carney dispelled the MPs' allegations that they had
heard that S/SRAP Holbrooke had &ordered8 a second round.
He reported that he had just talked by phone with Ambassador
Holbrooke, who firmly supported IEC Chair Najafi,s public
statement that any decision regarding a second round would be
the IEC,s to make, consistent with the Afghan constitution.
He also debunked the new rumor that the upcoming SRAP
conference in Paris would &determine8 the outcome of
Afghanistan,s election, clarifying that the Paris meeting is
one of several routine SRAP meetings that have been convened
over the past months. The MPs suggested that a statement
from Washington reiterating the U.S. policy of neutrality
might quell these divisive rumors, which only played into the
interests of the enemies of Afghanistan and its allies.


4. (C) Ambassador Eikenberry, who later joined the meeting
with Ambassador Wayne, called for patience and restraint to
allow the electoral process to take its proper course. He
remarked that 20 U.S. troops were killed in Afghanistan in
the week of the elections. These Americans, along with many
brave Afghan counterparts, had died to defend the Afghan
people,s right to vote. He reminded the audience that
Afghans had filed a number of ballot-related complaints, and
these allegations must be investigated through the proper
Afghan channels. He reiterated our position that we neither
favor nor oppose a particular candidate; nor do we favor or
oppose one round, or two rounds. Our only favorite candidate
is the Afghan people, and we will work with whomever wins, he
emphasized.

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A Little Fraud Pales Next to Threats of Iran and Taleban
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5. (C) While acknowledging that some electoral fraud had
occurred "on all sides," the MPs argued that "a few little
mistakes" should not destroy the aspirations of 8 million
Afghans (by their estimate) who voted despite death threats,
maiming, the launchings of RPGs and mortars, and IED
explosions. They warned that the "armed enemy" is eager to
seize the opportunity to convince Afghans that the United
States really controls the country; a game they will win if

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the Americans impose a certain election outcome and ignore
the will of the Afghan people. The MPs also played the Iran
card, warning us that Iran was seeking revenge for U.S.
meddling in the Iranian elections by interfering in
Afghanistan,s polls. They asserted that two or three of
Abudullah's campaign advisors were closely tied with Iran.


6. (C) Eikenberry responded that our concerns with Iran are
not about specific people. Rather, the United States is
concerned about the actions of any nation that undermine the
national security of Afghanistan and our shared interest in
helping Afghanistan become a strong, well-governed nation
that can defend itself against terrorist threats. He
reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to stand with the Afghan
people, its government, and the next administration, and to
jointly reject harmful meddling from the outside.


7. (C) Following the departure of the Ambassadors, the MPs
asked to continue the conversation. An MP from Kabul asked
us why the U.S. Government had stopped supporting President
Karzai after he started criticizing the United States for
causing so many Afghan civilian casualties. We replied that
it was understandable that, as the leader of his nation,
President Karzai would defend the lives of his people.
Further, the American people had shared the Afghan people's
dismay and sadness over the death of Afghan civilians. The
U.S. Government's new strategy reflected this shared concern.
At the close of the meeting, a number of the MPs voiced
concern that if a second round were mandated, voter turnout
would be poor because people would be afraid and weary of the
process. Referring to the Ambassador's earlier message that
it is incumbent upon the IEC, not the international
community, to determine whether or not a second round is
called for, we reminded the parliamentarians that we will
respect the decision of the proper Afghan authorities
regarding the electoral process.


8. (C) Comment: The official Palace justification for the
meeting was to discuss the unfounded allegations in foreign
and domestic media that S/SRAP Holbrooke had told Karzai a
second round would be necessary. However, we suspect that
the real motive was to press us to endorse a Karzai victory
on the first round, regardless of the level of fraud found by
the IEC and the ECC. The parliamentarians' claims that we
are meddling by pressing for a second round, their warnings
of Iranian interference and association with Karzai rival
Abdullah, and the assertion that the "armed enemy" will
exploit the tensions between the United States and the Karzai
administration, all suggest the Karzai camp is concerned that
the level of fraud may reach a threshold that could derail a
first-round victory for their candidate. They are
increasingly desperate to convince us that our staying with
Karzai is the only safe way forward. End Comment.

EIKENBERRY