Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KABUL2597
2009-08-28 06:58:00
SECRET
Embassy Kabul
Cable title:  

POST-ELECTION POSTURING AND THE U.S. MESSAGE:

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINS AF 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0007
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBUL #2597/01 2400658
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 280658Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1221
INFO RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 7879
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T KABUL 002597 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2029
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS AF
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION POSTURING AND THE U.S. MESSAGE:
KARZAI ADVISORS

Classified By: Ambassador Francis Ricciardone, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

S E C R E T KABUL 002597

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2029
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS AF
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION POSTURING AND THE U.S. MESSAGE:
KARZAI ADVISORS

Classified By: Ambassador Francis Ricciardone, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S) Summary: In a series of meetings August 27, Deputy
Ambassador Ricciardone stressed to the Karzai government that
we are concerned about any attempts to pressure the elections
process and institutions. He pressed the GIRoA publicly to
reaffirm its support for the integrity of the Independent
Electoral Commission (IEC) and the Electoral Complaints
Commission (ECC) processes, which must be free of
interference from any quarter. The three senior Karzai
advisors all stated that they knew fraud had been committed -
"on both sides" - and warned of the possibility of violence.
End summary.

--------------
MOI Atmar: The Other Side is Arming
--------------


2. (S) MOI Hanif Atmar told Ambassador Ricciardone of an
urgent need to investigate growing intelligence reports that
Balkh Governor Atta and other warlords/powerbrokers are
arming their followers in possible preparation for violence.
He gave us a two-page report (forwarded to RAO) in Dari,
detailing names and numbers of AK-47's and RPGs - totalling
2-300 weapons, he said. While there is no immediate need for
action, he said, he expressed concern that the warlord
"standard practice" is to keep some of his militia
demobilized but ready, and place the rest of it in the police
force. Governor Atta, therefore, has the means at his
disposal to call up a small force of armed men, Atmar said.
Atmar asked the international community to watch Mazar and
Kabul closely, as well as Konduz, for subversive activities
there. He said he had also asked RC-North Commander to join
in investigating the deaths of two IEC officials on election
day, and the disappearance of the balloting materials they
were carrying, in Nahr-i-Shaki district.


3. (S) Atmar stated that the GIRoA believes Abdullah himself
is sincerely trying to keep his followers from violence, but
that Atta and others do not necessarily plan to obey him.
Atmar was less concerned about Rabbani and Qanooni, who he
termed "no longer the key players". Ricciardone emphasized
that we had delivered firm messages to Abdullah, Atta and
others that their political future rested on their restraint

during this period.


4. (S) Turning to the issue of fraud and the possible
quarantine of thousands of ballot boxes coming from disputed
areas, mainly in the South, Atmar complained that the result
will be disenfranchisement of Pashtuns who will be bitter
that they are on the front line of terror but that their
votes are not counted. He urged that whole provinces not be
quarantined for this reason. He also said it was important
at this point to avoid any public speculation about a second
round of votes. The international community should protect
the "rule of law" by encouraging everyone to bring their
fraud complaints to the ECC; and the international community
should also speak out publicly against any violence or
preparation for violence. He alleged that stories of a
falling out between the U.S. and Karzai immediately after the
election had been a "green light" to Atta and others.


5. (C) In response, Ricciardone warned against any GIRoA
attempt to personalize a serious foreign policy issue over
the integrity of the election process. He noted the
incredible sensitivity of the Pashtun vote, but pointed out
that the international community was in a very difficult
position - there are so many credible allegations of fraud we
cannot pretend these alleged acts didn't happen and should
not affect the outcome, he said. The IEC must be allowed to
do its work without pressure, Ricciardone said. Some of its
officials reportedly feel under pressure to ignore or obscure
fraudulent interference. Atmar agreed and said that all must
take an aggressive line against fraud. When asked if
President Karzai would state publicly his support for the IEC
and ECC, however, Atmar said that the Presidential spokesman
had already made such statements in an August 26 press
conference, as Atmar on August 25 promised Ricciardone to
make happen. However, Karzai remained unwilling to make sure
a public statement personally - in part due to suspicions
that the USG and UNAMA were pushing for a second round "no
matter what" the actual results might be. Karzai's
suspicions were renewed by statements attributed to UNAMA
Deputy Peter Galbraith, in which he allegedly told the ECC to
quarantine twenty percent of the vote. Nonetheless, Atmar
promised to ask Karzai again to make such a statement.
"Karzai is trying to make the international community
worried," Atmar said, which Riccardone said was akin to
holding a gun to his own head and threatening to shoot.


6. (S) On the subject of the integrity of the process, Atmar
admitted he had to be careful about any contact that he has
with the ECC or others that could be construed as pressure.
(Ricciardone had pressed Atmar the night of August 25
regarding the "threat" perceived by FEFA chief Naderi from
Atmar's "warning" to him earlier that day against inciting
violence.) He did not attempt to deny that some are trying
to make the IEC "just lose" votes that are over-the-top fraud
on Karzai's behalf. However, Atmar bristled at the
implication that anyone in the IEC, ECC or NGO community was
under serious pressure or threat, and offered police
protection to anyone who felt they needed it. Ricciardone
repeated the U.S. position that we supported the process,
whether or not that leads to a second round, because our
strategic goals in Afghanistan can only be accomplished
through a partnership with a president considered to be
legitimately elected.

-------------- -
Omer Daudzai: On Message - We Support IEC, ECC
-------------- -


7. (S) Earlier on August 27, Ambassadors Ricciardone and
Carney raised election issues with Presidential Chief of
Staff Omer Daudzai. They stressed the need for a visible
legitimate process to counter the reality of many reports of
fraud, both from the Karzai side and from Abdullah,s side.
They argued that overzealous supporters risk harming
President Karzai's eventual chances, since he might have won
even without cheating. By resorting to fraud, such Karzai
supporters were running a serious risk of an "own goal."
Daudzai emphasized that any possible fraud on Karzai's behalf
had not been directed by the Palace.


8. (S) After some discussion of President Karzai,s
perceptions of U.S. desire for a second round, Daudzai
underscored the requirement that no one undermine the
authority of the two commissions, IEC and ECC. &We will
not,8 he affirmed, adding that they just need to do their
job. Ambassador Ricciardone urged that the presidential
spokesman or Karzai himself publicly respond to charges of
electoral fraud with a vigorous affirmation of support for
the IEC/ECC to do their jobs without intererence. Such a
statement might chastise even the president,s own supporters
if, in an excess of zeal, they committed fraud. This also
might help protect Karzai when the IEC/ECC announces a
quarantine of ballots supporting President Karzai. Daudzai
nodded but did not commit to a statement.


9. (C) The two also discussed the risk of any possible
elections-related demonstrations getting out of hand.
Daudzai, speaking "on instructions", asked for the Embassy
and Palace to work together to prevent such demonstrations.
Daudzai said that a plan is needed and asked the Embassy to
speak to Dr. Abdullah. Ambassador Ricciardone noted that
Ambassador Eikenberry recently and repeatedly had stressed to
Dr. Abdullah and other candidates and supporters the need for
stability and peace; SRAP Holbrooke likewise had pointed out
to Governor Atta the need for calm to ensure the country
stays together. Ambassador Carney added that he had spoken
to Mirwais Yasini and to minor candidate Sarwar Ahmedzai on
August 26 with the same message of the need to ensure calm.
Yaseni had agreed completely, saying that even a five-person
demonstration could get out of hand.

--------------
FM Spanta - No Fair Losers in Afghanistan
--------------


10. (C) Visiting CODEL Bordallo, with D/AMB Ricciardone,
pressed the same issue on August 27 with FM Spanta. Spanta
candidly stated that "there are no fair losers" in
Afghanistan and every side is ready to claim fraud or foreign
interference. That said, he argued that the dimensions of
fraud (that he readily admitted had occured) were not so much
that the elections will be derailed. Pressed further, Spanta
said that he thought the eventual loser of the election would
come around to support the winner - if the international
community helps. To ensure peace, he said, the final outcome
should somehow "not exclude" the losing side. Spanta, who
said Karzai had "never had a policy to commit fraud"
emphasized his support for the work of the IEC and ECC.


11. (S) Note: Our contacts among Karzai's insiders report
that Karzai's side is in some disarray. Karzai family and
friends reportedly are keeping their families and their funds
out of the country and two of Karzai's brothers are preparing
U.S. refugee petitions. Their personal protection if
violence occurs is probably not the army, but instead the
network of private security companies -- especially the Asia
Security Group, owned by Karzai's family. The sources allege
that Karzai side's fraud had not been centrally organized -
and in fact was so obvious that it had become
counter-productive. In one source's hearing, a Karzai
campaign manager was teased by others that he'd clearly
"stacked" the papers in one box, when you are supposed to
make it look like 300 individuals dropped the papers in. End
Note.


12. (U) CODEL Bordallo did not clear this message.
EIKENBERRY