AFGHAN ELECTIONS: REACTIONS TO PARTIAL ELECTION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 002583

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: AFGHAN ELECTIONS: REACTIONS TO PARTIAL ELECTION
RESULTS

REF: KABUL 2528

Classified By: Classified by PolCouns Annie Pforzheimer, Reasons 1.4 (b
) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Following the first Independent Election
Commission (IEC) announcement of results on August 25, the
political outlook and the candidates' behavior has changed
little--public pronouncements of mass fraud and political
posturing continue--mainly because the results were
inconclusive (ref A). (However, numbers released late August
26 show a widening gap in favor of Karzai - septel.) Leading
candidates are trying to get the minor candidates to join
their teams and all the candidates except Karzai continue to
claim "widespread fraud." Proposals for a national unity
government or a parliamentary system are being circulated by
the self-interested. Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC)
fraud case numbers and updated talking points included paras
9-10. End Summary.

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Media Blitz on Fraud
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2. (C) The IEC announcement of partial elections results
late August 25 was met with more of the same--more complaints
of "widespread fraud," in particular by the candidates with
lower numbers, and more rumors of back door deals and
negotiations, in an attempt to create a coalition government.
On August 25, the independent channel Tolo TV included
reports on individual press conferences held by several
second-tier presidential candidates to push the ECC to
thoroughly investigate all of their fraud complaints. Ashraf
Ghani Ahmadzai, Mirwais Yaseni, Motasembellah Mazhabi, Sayed
Jalal Karim, Bismillah Shir, and Ferozan Fana have all held
press conferences or made media statements regarding their
own perceptions of fraud -- by both Karzai and Abdullah -- in
the elections. Sayed Jalal Karim implied to the media that
violence could be a result of an election that was perceived
as fraudulent.


3. (C) Abdullah Abdullah is likely the source of footage
aired by Tolo TV of what appears to be people stuffing
ballots in the Aghojan village of Gelan District of Ghazni
province. While Tolo did not report on the source, Abdullah
has told us in conversations that he had such footage and was
planning to release it. It aired on August 25. The ECC has
said in a press statement that it is currently investigating
allegations of vote rigging in Kandahar, Ghazni, Wardak,
Kunduz, Paktika, Paktia, and Baghlan.


4. (C) Presidential Candidate Sarwar Ahmadzai (Pashtun and
Kuchi) told us the Ahmadzai Pashtun are frustrated with the
fraud levels, noting he had sent his complaints to the IEC.
He said if there are no investigations, his people will "take
to the streets" if Karzai is re-elected. He claimed Karzai's
people stuffed ballot boxes even in Kabul, noting that at the
site where he voted with his closest supporters, only two
votes for him were supposedly cast. He said he personally
knew MPs that kept Kabul ballots in their homes before the
elections. Ahmadzai brought six tribal leaders to the
meeting at the Embassy, from Kabul, Wardak, Logar, Khost,
Paktika, and Nangahar provinces. They claimed that their
people think the U.S. supports Karzai, and that is hurting
our public credibility. They added that considering how
unfairly the pre-election period went, with the shameful use
of government resources to campaign, no one was surprised
when the voting process was also fraudulent. Ahmadzai
expressed a need for an ECC public broadcast that would
explain to the people that the fraud is being investigated,
so they remain calm; the ECC has not done this but it has
issued a press release inviting observers to visit during a
public hour from 2-3 pm daily.

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The Rumor Mill: Working Overtime
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5. (S) Yaseni told us privately August 26 that both the
Abdullah and Karzai campaigns were trying to negotiate with
him to form a coalition, and implied that a Karzai coalition
was most likely. He went into significant detail about the
fraud that his teams witnessed, handing us a number of
spoiled ballots marked for him, which he said had been found
outside a polling station. The ballots had official IEC
stamps on them, which partially supports his story, and he
has filed a complaint with the ECC. Yaseni stated that the
election signaled the "end of democracy" in Afghanistan and
that no one would turn out to vote in future elections now
that they see how their votes are ignored. He challenged the
international community to save the elections from the "300
percent" rigging that had occured or else to allow the

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elections to be completly set aside. He specifically
advocated throwing out the results of the election and
forming a "unity government" headed by Ashraf Ghani,
comprised of "major candidates" with Karzai as head of state
but not head of government, and with pro-Karzai Tajik
representation for ethnic balance; "Abdullah can be Foreign
Minister," he offered.


6. (C) Candidate Ahmadzai said most minor candidates "were
running towards Karzai," although he had refused due to
Karzai's affiliation with Dostum, Mohaqqeq, and Fahim. Some
are waiting for Ashraf Ghani to return from Dubai in order to
try to negotiate a better deal. (Note: Some MPs claimed to
us that Ghani's stomach cancer has returned, and he is
seeking treatment.) Despite Abdullah's fraud protests, many
of our interlocutors predict a Karzai victory in the first
round. A close Abdullah supporter in Panjshir told us
Abdullah was "working on a deal with Karzai," and was pushing
for a Prime Minister position, which would require a change
to the parliamentary form of government. MP Fawzia Koofi
(Badakhshan, Tajik) also claimed Abdullah was pushing for the
Prime Minister position.


7. (C) National Democratic Institute (NDI) representatives
told us that they had met with Speaker of the House Mohammed
Yunus Qanooni, who said that he believes a deal between
Karzai and Abdullah is in the making and that he would be
willing to personally facilitate it. The deal that Qanooni
described as most likely would be that Abdullah would
challenge only some of the votes for Karzai but not enough to
prevent Karzai from getting a 50.01 percent majority required
for him to retain the Presidency. In exchange, Karzai would
not stand in the way when Abdullah formed a Parliamentary
Coalition.


8. (C) According to one press report, a source close to
Mohammad Noor Atta, governor of Balkh province, claimed that
during his trip to the province August 23, U.S. Special Envoy
for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke asked Noor to
take part in the formation of a coalition government in
Afghanistan. Atta is a prominent Abdullah supporter, and
reputedly fears that Karzai will remove him from office.

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ECC REPORTS MORE HIGH PRIORITY FRAUD CASES
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9. (SBU) The ECC told us privately that the total number of
fraud cases reported is now 1356, and the number of cases
they consider high priority (i.e., those that could change
the outcome) has increased to 147, or about 27% of the total
complaints reviewed. However, this only represents a full
scrub of half of the 1356 cases, since this is an ongoing
process, so the number of high priority cases will likely
increase. This could further delay the ECC's final
resolution of the cases, which in turn may delay the
announcement of the IEC's final certification.


10. (U) Press Guidance/Talking Points on the IEC,s Initial
Release of Polling Results


Q. Have you seen the results released to date from the IEC?


A. Yes. We,ve seen the IEC partial preliminary results
released yesterday and today, accounting for approximately
17.2 percent of all polling stations. These announcement are
the beginning of a lengthy process. We all need to be
patient, allow the IEC and ECC to do their jobs thoroughly
and wait for all the results to be released. We call on all
parties to refrain from speculation until national results
are announced.


Q. When will the results be final?


A. As the IEC said on August 23, we expect that the final
results will be available around September 17-23 and only the
IEC can certify results. We call on all candidates and their
supporters to behave responsibly.


Q. Does the U.S. have confidence in the IEC?


A. Yes. We have confidence in the IEC and ECC, which
although independent of one another, are linked in the
process of tallying votes, adjudicating complaints, and
verifying results.


Q. Is this process of releasing a tranche of the results
over a period of days transparent?


A. Yes. The timing of the releases is due to the immense
logistical and procedural challenges of the election. We
note the IEC also has an observer area in the tallying center

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for candidate agents, international observers and diplomats.
EIKENBERRY