Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KABUL2528
2009-08-25 16:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kabul
Cable title:  

IEC PLAYS IT SAFE IN PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT OF

Tags:  PGOV PREL AF 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0744
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #2528/01 2371641
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 251641Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1094
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002528 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: IEC PLAYS IT SAFE IN PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT OF
VOTES

Classified By: PolCouns Annie Pforzheimer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002528

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: IEC PLAYS IT SAFE IN PRELIMINARY ANNOUNCEMENT OF
VOTES

Classified By: PolCouns Annie Pforzheimer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: The Independent Election Commission (IEC)
announced the preliminary results August 25 of approximately
10 percent of all polling stations nationwide, results that
appear to have been calculated to quell increasing tensions
over alleged fraud and to defuse potentially dangerous
rhetoric. The IEC defined the results as "preliminary,
approved by the IEC, but subject to challenge in accordance
with the law prior to final certification." The IEC
announced results showing Karzai with 212,927 and Abdullah
with 202,889 of the total 524,444 valid votes counted thus
far, although the numbers were off in a written document
accompanying the conference. Coming in third was Hazara
populist Bashardost, with 53,740 votes, and Ghani trailing
with 15,143 of the valid votes. The numbers given do not
represent a cross-section of the country or any statistical
weighting of votes from each province. Candidates who are
not satisfied with these results may contest them within the
next 72 hours. There were no controversial questions from the
assembled crowd of mostly foreigners, though there were
challenges from candidate agents, whom Dr. Daoud Ali Najafi,
Chief Electoral Officer of the IEC, simply referred to the
Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC). End Summary.

- - - - - - - - -
IEC Plays It Safe
- - - - - - - - -


2. (SBU) The IEC announced results in a well-attended press
conference showing Karzai with 212,927 and Abdullah with
202,889 of the total 524,444 valid votes counted thus far,
although the numbers were off in a written document
accompanying the conference. However, an IEC document
distributed at the press conference showed Karzai with
219,539 and Abdullah with 205,515 of 524,444 valid votes.
Hazara populist Bashardost was third with 53,740 followed by
Ashraf Ghani with 15,143 and Mirwais Yaseni at 4,375. A
reporter asked Chief Electoral Officer Daoud Ali Najafi about
the discrepancy between his speech and the numbers on the
paper, but Najafi offered no real explanation. Najafi just
re-read the results, repeating the inconsistencies.


3. (C) The numbers given in no way represent a cross-section
of the country or any statistical weighting of votes from

each province. Depending on whether one goes by Dr. Najafi's
announcement or the IEC handout, no votes have yet been
counted from Khost, Kunarha, Laghman, Nuristan, Badakhshan,
Baghlan, Balkh, Sar-e-Pul, Badghis, Nimroz, Helmand, Zabul,
Uruzgan, and Herat. The handout and the speech were
inconsistent regarding counting from Herat and Uruzgan.
(Comment: It is likely that votes from all or at least some
of these "no-count" provinces have in fact been counted, but
were not supposed to be included in today's presentation
because of controversy surrounding some of their polling
centers; or else because there was a desire to present only
those results that would put Karzai and Abdullah in close
competition to prevent an escalation of rhetoric on the part
of either of their supporters. They can only manipulate the
release of data for another few days, if that long. End
Comment.)


4. (SBU) On the spreadsheet, Karzai posts a lead in Kabul,
Wardak, Paktika, Paktia, Nangahar, Jowzjan, Faryab, Herat,
Farah, Kandahar, Zabul, and Bamiyan. Abdullah posts a lead
in Kapisa, Parwan, Takhar, Kunduz, Samangan, Ghor, and
Panjshir. Bashardost is leading in Ghazni and Daikondi and
has a strong third place in Bamiyan.


5. (SBU) According to the spreadsheet, 9.92 percent of the
vote has been counted in Kabul.
-- In RC-East 38.08 percent of the vote has been counted in
Kapisa, 56.34 percent in Parwan, 23.64 percent in Wardak,
14.23 percent in Logar, 5.96 percent in Ghazni, 0.19 percent
in Paktika, 5.85 percent in Paktia, 28.88 percent in Bamiyan,
14.94 percent in Nangarhar and none in Khost, Laghman, or
Kunar.
-- In RC-South 16.46 percent of the vote has been counted in
Daikondi, 1.86 percent in Kandahar, 0.99 percent in Zabul,
and none in Helmand, Nimroz, or Uruzgan.
-- In RC-North 0.94 percent of the vote has been counted in
Takhar, 38.99 percent in Kunduz, 49.24 percent in Jowzjan,
8.69 percent in Faryab, and none in Badakhshan, Baghlan,
Balkh, Samangan, or Sar-e-Pul.
-- In RC-West, the spreadsheet lists 18.19 percent of the
vote counted from Ghor, 9.35 percent in Farah, 0.52 percent
in Herat, and none from Badghis.


6. (C) It is our understanding that these percentages reflect
only the non-fraudulent ballots. When explaining what the
numbers mean, the IEC showed a breakdown between "valid
votes", "invalid votes", and "invalidated votes". They

KABUL 00002528 002 OF 002


defined "invalid votes" (21,170) as those which were not
marked clearly or where more than one presidential candidate
was marked. "Invalidated votes"(10,228) were defined as
those votes cast for candidates that were officially
withdrawn from the election after the ballots were printed.
There was no mention of any votes that could be controversial
or fraudulent. Candidates who are not satisfied with these
results may contest them within the next 72 hours. There
were no controversial questions from the assembled crowd of
mostly foreigners, though there was a challenge from a
candidate agent, whom Dr. Najafi of the IEC simply referred
to the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC).

- - - - - - -
Press Guidance
- - - - - - -


7. (U) Press Guidance/Talking Points on the IEC,s Initial
Release of Polling Results


Q. Have you seen the results released today from the IEC?


A. Yes. We,ve seen the IEC partial preliminary results
released today, representing 2697 polling stations in 18
provinces, accounting for approximately 10 percent of all
polling stations . Today,s announcement was the beginning
of a lengthy process. We will need to be patient, allow the
IEC and ECC to do their jobs thoroughly and wait for all the
results to be released. We call on all parties to refrain
from speculation until national results are announced.


Q. When will the results be final?


A. As the IEC said on August 23, we expect that the final
results will be available around September 17-23 and only the
IEC can certify results. We call on all candidates and their
supporters to behave responsibly.


Q. Does the U.S. have confidence in the IEC?


A. Yes. We have confidence in the IEC and ECC, which
although independent of one another, are linked in the
process of tallying votes, adjudicating complaints, and
verifying results.


Q. Is this process of releasing a tranche of the results
over a period of days transparent?


A. Yes. The timing of the releases is due to the immense
logistical and procedural challenges of the election. We
note the IEC also has an observer area in the tallying center
for candidate agents, international observers and diplomats.


Q. Has anyone from the U.S. Embassy been observing the
tallying process?


A. Yes. Embassy personnel have been regularly observing
the tallying process.
EIKENBERRY