Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KABUL2468
2009-08-22 15:19:00
SECRET
Embassy Kabul
Cable title:  

POST-ELECTION CANDIDATE POSTURING

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM AF 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8889
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #2468/01 2341519
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 221519Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1020
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002468 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION CANDIDATE POSTURING

REF: KABUL 2457

Classified By: PolCouns APforzheimer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002468

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION CANDIDATE POSTURING

REF: KABUL 2457

Classified By: PolCouns APforzheimer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) SUMMARY: President Hamid Karzai and presidential
candidate Dr. Abdullah Abdullah are both publicly positioning
themselves as the winner before the International Electoral
Commission's (IEC) preliminary election results are announced
August 25, and both may blame fraud and lower turnout if the
results do not favor them. The tone of both candidates
remains measured thus far. Many analysts claim that if
Karzai wins in the first round, Abdullah will cut a power
sharing deal; clearly, the politics have not stopped just
because the citizens have voted. End Summary.

- - -
I WON
- - -


2. (S) On August 22, Karzai's campaign advisor Waheed Omar
said publicly, "based on initial information from media and
our observers from areas where ballots were counted already,
it shows that President Karzai is ahead of other candidates"
(ref A). However, Omar told us separately that these were
his "personal thoughts only," and that he was not speaking on
behalf of Karzai in any official way. Karzai Advisor
Sebghatullah Sanjar told us that Karzai was confident that he
had won, and that he was making arrangements to ensure there
would be no violence in the north when he will be declared
the victor on August 25. He said the Karzai camp continued
to consider a cabinet level position for Abdullah, perhaps
again as Foreign Minister.


3. (S) Karzai supporter MP Fazel Karim Aimaq (Kunduz,
Aimaq),told us Karzai was the certain winner, claiming
200,000 Karzai votes in Paktya and Paktika, while Abdullah
received only 6,000 votes in these provinces. He remarked
that the same occurred in many southern provinces, and also
alleged that Ramazan Bashardost, a Hazara, took votes away
from Abdullah in the north. He claimed "Abdullah will accept
Karzai's win without encouraging violence," but asked the
international community to help negotiate a power sharing
agreement. MP Shukria Barakzai (Kabul, Pashtun),who claimed
to support no candidate, said the elections process was a
success, but that "unfortunately" Karzai was the winner.

- - - - -
NO, I WON
- - - - -


4. (S) On August 22, Abdullah told the press that "initial

results from the provinces show that I have more than 50
percent of the vote" and in an Al Jazeerah interview the same
day, claimed that he led in the areas where he had received
results from his agents (but admitted he had little
information from the south.) "If there was no rigging,
victory would be mine," he told Al-Sharq al-Awsat, an online
newspaper. Abdullah's spokesperson Fazl Sangcharaki said the
north had voted solidly for Abdullah except in Jowzjan
province, where Uzbek militia chieftain Abdul Rashid Dostum's
return threw support to Karzai. Sangcharaki appeared on a
political talk show on August 22, stating that Karzai had won
in some provinces, while Abdullah had in others.
Sangcharaki's calm tone and demeanor on the talk show led
several of our interlocutors to believe that Abdullah is
preparing for a power sharing deal with Karzai. They
elaborated that Abdullah may be keeping the pressure on
Karzai, by declaring victory, simply in order to improve his
negotiating stance. Abdullah Advisor Farid Zikria denied
this, saying it was "certain" that Abdullah, at a minimum,
would push the race into a second round.

- - - - - - - - -
LET'S MAKE A DEAL?
- - - - - - - - -


5. (S) Afghanistan's Center for Research and Policy Director
Haroun Mir - an occasional Abdullah advisor -- told us that
the Abdullah camp, even if they do not win, "does not want to
lose" and therefore will negotiate with Karzai to form a
coalition government. A Kabul University Political Science
Professor told us that due to the presence of Marshall Fahim,
a prominent Tajik, on Karzai's team, the Tajik people would
feel more comfortable with Karzai as President than the
Pashtun people would feel with Abdullah. Salahuddin Rabbani,
the advisor and son of Professor Rabbani (an Abdullah
supporter),said that if there was a second round, it would
be extremely important that the international community
publically support the IEC's decision. Other Abdullah
advisors told us that if there was a second round, Abdullah
would gain more prominant Pashtuns on his ticket; however,

KABUL 00002468 002 OF 002


they acknowledged that a second round would heighten ethnic
tensions.


6. (S) Abdullah Advisor Satar Murat claimed that Karzai will
likely, "never want to leave the palace," if he lost, just as
other warlords and Afghan leaders have avoided ever stepping
down throughout history. Along these lines, members of the
Junbesh party leadership told us they actually have more hope
that Karzai will move Afghanistan from a presidential to a
parliamentary system than Abdullah, despite Abdullah making
that a key part of his campaign, because Karzai will want to
remain in power -- and if he changed the government system to
a parliamentary system, he eventually could become Prime
Minister.


7. (S) If there is a second round, Haroun Mir said the
Pashtuns could feel disenfranchised, since many of them were
unable to vote due to security concerns. He said this is
what the Taliban wanted, and that they reason that if
Abdullah won, the ethnic Pashtuns will protest against a
non-Pashtun leader. This would incite violence and push
Pashtuns to the Taliban, as in the civil war in the 1990s.
Mir also voiced concern about Balkh province, since Balkh
Governor General Usted Mohammad Noor Atta (Tajik) was a
faithful Abdullah supporter, and a Karzai appointee. The
security situation would remain uncertain, in particular if
the powerful Atta was dismissed by any future Karzai
government, due to the presence of competing Pro-Karzai
ethnic warlords in the province including MP Haji Mohammad
Mohaqqeq (Kabul, Hazara) and Dostum (Uzbek).
EIKENBERRY