AFGHAN ELECTIONS: TWO DAYS OUT, KARZAI GAINS

S E C R E T KABUL 002419

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: AFGHAN ELECTIONS: TWO DAYS OUT, KARZAI GAINS
MOMENTUM AMID AN UPTICK IN VIOLENCE

REF: A. KABUL 2405

B. KABUL 2366

C. KABUL 2334

D. KABUL 2295

Classified By: PolCouns APforzheimer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: By nearly all observations, President
Karzai has gained momentum in the last week with the
endorsements of influential former warlords like General
Abdul Rashid Dostum and Ismael Khan (ref A, B),as well as
five minor presidential candidates on August 17. Further,
polling data prior to these events suggests that Karzai holds
as much as a 16-point lead over his closest competitor. A
second round remains a possibility, but less so than two
weeks ago. Many Afghans say they want to vote for the
winning candidate, so Karzai's perceived momentum could
produce a self-fulfilling prophecy. Election officials are
optimistic that over 6,500 polling centers will open--1690
more than the last presidential elections. Allegations of
fraud, especially from the Abdullah campaign, may foreshadow
protests if he loses. Security on election day remains a key
concern, as scattered explosions rock heavily protected
Kabul, and provincial polling stations and materials were
attacked. End Summary.

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Karzai Gains Momentum, but Enough?
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2. (C) President Karzai has gained momentum in the final two
weeks before the election. Polling data puts Karzai ahead
solidly, with a 16-point lead over Abdullah (Karzai 42%,
Abdullah 26%, Bashardost 9%, Ghani 5%, all other candidates
18%). This data does not reflect the final two-week Karzai
push, nor the recent endorsements of influential regional
leaders General Abdul Rashid Dostum in the North, and Ismael
Khan in Herat. On August 18, five minor presidential
candidates also endorsed him, including one of the
self-proclaimed leaders of the group of 22 presidential
candidates, former Vice President Hedayat Arsala (ref C).
Although 10 candidates have pulled out publicly, only one has
reported this officially to the IEC. The ballots were
printed with all 41 names, and with 40 still officially in
the running, it will be difficult for any candidate to pass
the 50% required to win in the first round.


3. (C) Nonetheless, overwhelmingly Afghans tell us they want
to vote for the winning candidate, which may make Karzai's
final push and perceived momentum become a self-fulfilling
prophecy. Many Afghans tell us that communities will vote
for the perceived "winner" so they can tell the future
president that they were supporters, and obtain assistance
funds and other benefits from the next Administration. They
may also be motivated, out of fear, to want the process over
quickly and not see a second round.

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Presidential Debate Boosts Populist Dark Horse
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4. (C) The August 16 televised presidential debate featuring
Karzai, Ghani and Bashardost drew positive press for its
historic significance, in particular due to the participation
of an incumbent president. Overall, the debates helped both
Bashardost and Karzai, but likely boosted Bashardost the
most, since he surpassed lower expectations (many thought he
would say something irrational) and used persuasive populist
arguments against corruption and warlord politics. Karzai
was careful but polished, although some interlocutors assert
that as the current president, expectations were higher for
him, so he did not fare as well. Ghani was stoic and suave,
but his technocratic terminology and theoretical 20-year
plans for Afghanistan paled compared to down-to-earth
Bashardost.

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Elections Preparations
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5. (U) The Ministry of the Interior (MOI),Ministry of
Defense (MOD) and IEC announced that over 6,500 polling
centers will open for the August 20 elections--1690 more than
the last presidential elections on August 15. The IEC said
they will only send IEC officials and materials to those
centers that have Afghan National Security Forces present.
The MOD and MOI will still try to open another 443 centers,
possibly adding polling centers up to the polling day,

depending on security conditions.


6. (U) The IEC operations department said the following
provinces lack female staff as both searchers and polling
center personnel: Helmand, Kandahar, Khost, Logar, Paktia,
Paktika, Uruzgun and Zabul. The most conservative Southern
Pashtun Provinces remain the most difficult to staff,
although both the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and
Development, as well as the Afghan Women's Network (a
counterpart of International Republican Institute) have
actively helped recruit volunteers. UNIFEM printed and
distributed 34,000 posters urging Afghan women to participate
in the election and by becoming female IEC officials and
searchers. When females are not available, tribal elders
perform the task.

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Fraud and Repercussions
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7. (U) The ECC told us that as of August 17, they have
received a total of 440 electoral fraud complaints, 107 of
which were against presidential candidates. Of the total
cases, 172 have reached adjudication, with 22 cases imposing
fines. The overwhelming majority of the complaints are from
the north, in particular Takhar, Balkh, Kunduz and
Badakhshan. Both top presidential candidates have been fined
by the ECC for electoral violations, to include Karzai's VP
for the misuse of government resources for campaign purposes,
while Abdullah's campaign was fined for pasting billboards on
the Ministry of Public Health in Khost Province, and for
illegally dropping pamphlets over Kabul. Senior Abdullah
Advisor Dr. Farid Zikria told us these fines made a mockery
out of the ECC, as only one day after Karzai's VP was fined,
he appeared at rallies with "half his cabinet." He also
noted the whole IEC voting staff in Shirwak district in
Kandahar was populated by Popalzai, Karzai's tribe.


8. (SBU) The custody of sensitive balloting materials
remains a concern in the most dangerous districts. On August
18, the ANA delivered balloting materials to an Eastern
province, and handed it over to a community policing group.
No ANA, ANP, or IEC personnel were in sight, according to an
ISAF representative present. The use of these community
policing groups, in particular if highly publicized, may
affect the perception of fair elections. The Abdullah
campaign told us they were concerned about these highly
"secretive" groups.


9. (C) Reports, in particular from the North, suggest that
Abdullah's supporters may give teeth to the statement made by
Balkh Governor Mohammad Atta Noor, Professor Rabbani, and
House Speaker Yunus Qanooni that "if the election results are
not perceived to be fair and transparent," there may be
violence (ref D). While some Abdullah supporters have said
ethnic violence is a possible outcome, in particular if
"someone" makes specific cases of elections fraud public
following the elections, others tell us the Abdullah campaign
is using the "there will be violence" card to: 1) prevent
Karzai from using widespread fraud, 2) get the attention of
the international community, and 3) gain leverage for
post-election negotiations. Many are concerned, however,
that this strategy could spiral out of control.

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Security Remains a Key Concern
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10. (S) On August 18, the Taliban claimed responsibility for
the suicide bomber who killed five at a checkpoint in
Southern Uruzgan province. On the same day, a Taliban
militant gunned down a candidate for provincial council in
Northern province Jowzjan, and in Jalalabad province election
materials were burned when the Taliban attacked the group
transporting the materials on pack animals. A polling site
in Paktia was burned down by insurgents as well. A rocket
attack on the Presidential Palace compound early August 18
injured one. A large car bomb exploded on Jalalabad Road in
Kabul on August 18 near U.S. base Camp Pheonix and the IEC
headquarters. Initial reports claim up to six British
soldiers were killed, while preliminary intelligence reports
say one U.S. soldier and two UNAMA staff were killed, with
over 50 injured.
EIKENBERRY