Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KABUL2337
2009-08-12 14:20:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Kabul
Cable title:
EIGHT DAYS TILL "E-DAY" - THE LATEST ON
how-toVZCZCXRO0679 RR RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL DE RUEHBUL #2337 2241420 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 121420Z AUG 09 FM AMEMBASSY KABUL TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0796 INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 2777
UNCLAS KABUL 002337
DEPARTMENT FOR S/SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF TU
SUBJECT: EIGHT DAYS TILL "E-DAY" - THE LATEST ON
OBSERVER COVERAGE AND STATEMENTS
REF: KABUL 1679
UNCLAS KABUL 002337
DEPARTMENT FOR S/SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF TU
SUBJECT: EIGHT DAYS TILL "E-DAY" - THE LATEST ON
OBSERVER COVERAGE AND STATEMENTS
REF: KABUL 1679
1. (SBU) At the Aug. 11 U.S.-chaired International Observer
Secretariat, representatives of 10 embassies, ISAF, UNAMA,
UNDP-ELECT, and five observer missions, including the domestic
entity FEFA, had a final exchange on common challenges in security,
deployment, and reporting.
UNDP Urges Caution in Reporting
--------------
2. (SBU) UNDP-ELECT briefed that its security team (UNDSS) predicts
a dip in violent activity on election day, and a rising chance of
protests and civil disturbances in the days following August 20. In
the context of this threat, UNDP-Elect's Margie Cook urged observers
to exercise caution over the content and timing of their messages so
as not to provide a "false image" of elections that candidates might
exploit for their own purposes before the vote is certified. She
urged observer groups to stagger their messaging, to carefully
consider the timing of releases, and to allow the voice of domestic
observers to be the primary voice of observation. FEFA, the
domestic observer organization, said it would report on its field
operations (i.e. number and location of observers) before and on
election day "as a deterrent," but that it would not report its
observations until later. Note: the Embassy is considering
convening a meeting of the USG-funded observer organizations (IRI,
Democracy International, NDI, and ANFREL) on August 21 to coordinate
timing of messages and to share messages on a voluntary basis. We
will also attempt to trade details messages with the EU Observer
Mission on the same day. End Note.
3. (SBU) Comment: The U.S. Embassy is neither coordinating nor
directing the statements of U.S.-funded observer missions. We are
funding four independent observer organizations, each of which will
have its own unique findings. We will not filter their findings nor
instruct them on what to report. These observer groups provide an
additional safeguard against fraud and demonstrate the international
community's support for Afghan citizens' rights to credible and
inclusive elections. The Embassy will send accredited staff and
Washington visitors to locations in Kabul to observe polling
centers, but will not file a public and official U.S. government
observer report. End Comment.
Deployments: On-the-Ground Realities
Mean Adjusting Goals
--------------
4. (SBU) The Turkish Embassy announced it will field 14 observers:
2 to Wardak, 6 to Mazar, and 6 in Kabul. Stepping back from its
earlier predictions, the EU announced that it will not have
observers in all 34 provinces. USG-funded observers may also have
to realign their geographic coverage, due to worse-than-expected
lodging and logistical constraints at PRTs. (Note: Post is
continuing to work this with ISAF. End note.) If these trends
continue over the next week, in most of the areas of highest threat
for fraud the onus will rest solely on domestic observers and
candidate agents to provide reporting on irregularities. At the
moment, there is no international observer presence in Nuristan,
Nimroz, or Daikondy.
5. (SBU) FEFA is looking into whether it will be able to observe in
polling centers where security is provided by community/tribal
elements, rather than ANP. UNDP-ELECT's Margie Cook said all
polling stations will be run by IEC-trained officials, regardless of
who guards the door. Comment: As of 12 August, IEC says that it
will not staff/deliver ballots unless a polling center has ANSF
security, making observation moot. End Comment.
6. (SBU) The International Observer Secretariat will convene a
smaller group of Embassies to plot out who will visit which
precincts in Kabul in order to de-conflict routes. UNAMA and OSCE
will also be visiting polling stations on "E-day", although not as
observers.
7. (SBU) Dirk Buda of the European Commission Office raised his
concern that the IEC's high number of accreditations (138,806
provincial council candidate agents, and 36,509 presidential
candidate agents as of 12 August) would cause clogging at polling
centers. UNDP-ELECT noted that polling station workers may limit
the number of agents and observers in a polling center.
EIKENBERRY
DEPARTMENT FOR S/SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF TU
SUBJECT: EIGHT DAYS TILL "E-DAY" - THE LATEST ON
OBSERVER COVERAGE AND STATEMENTS
REF: KABUL 1679
1. (SBU) At the Aug. 11 U.S.-chaired International Observer
Secretariat, representatives of 10 embassies, ISAF, UNAMA,
UNDP-ELECT, and five observer missions, including the domestic
entity FEFA, had a final exchange on common challenges in security,
deployment, and reporting.
UNDP Urges Caution in Reporting
--------------
2. (SBU) UNDP-ELECT briefed that its security team (UNDSS) predicts
a dip in violent activity on election day, and a rising chance of
protests and civil disturbances in the days following August 20. In
the context of this threat, UNDP-Elect's Margie Cook urged observers
to exercise caution over the content and timing of their messages so
as not to provide a "false image" of elections that candidates might
exploit for their own purposes before the vote is certified. She
urged observer groups to stagger their messaging, to carefully
consider the timing of releases, and to allow the voice of domestic
observers to be the primary voice of observation. FEFA, the
domestic observer organization, said it would report on its field
operations (i.e. number and location of observers) before and on
election day "as a deterrent," but that it would not report its
observations until later. Note: the Embassy is considering
convening a meeting of the USG-funded observer organizations (IRI,
Democracy International, NDI, and ANFREL) on August 21 to coordinate
timing of messages and to share messages on a voluntary basis. We
will also attempt to trade details messages with the EU Observer
Mission on the same day. End Note.
3. (SBU) Comment: The U.S. Embassy is neither coordinating nor
directing the statements of U.S.-funded observer missions. We are
funding four independent observer organizations, each of which will
have its own unique findings. We will not filter their findings nor
instruct them on what to report. These observer groups provide an
additional safeguard against fraud and demonstrate the international
community's support for Afghan citizens' rights to credible and
inclusive elections. The Embassy will send accredited staff and
Washington visitors to locations in Kabul to observe polling
centers, but will not file a public and official U.S. government
observer report. End Comment.
Deployments: On-the-Ground Realities
Mean Adjusting Goals
--------------
4. (SBU) The Turkish Embassy announced it will field 14 observers:
2 to Wardak, 6 to Mazar, and 6 in Kabul. Stepping back from its
earlier predictions, the EU announced that it will not have
observers in all 34 provinces. USG-funded observers may also have
to realign their geographic coverage, due to worse-than-expected
lodging and logistical constraints at PRTs. (Note: Post is
continuing to work this with ISAF. End note.) If these trends
continue over the next week, in most of the areas of highest threat
for fraud the onus will rest solely on domestic observers and
candidate agents to provide reporting on irregularities. At the
moment, there is no international observer presence in Nuristan,
Nimroz, or Daikondy.
5. (SBU) FEFA is looking into whether it will be able to observe in
polling centers where security is provided by community/tribal
elements, rather than ANP. UNDP-ELECT's Margie Cook said all
polling stations will be run by IEC-trained officials, regardless of
who guards the door. Comment: As of 12 August, IEC says that it
will not staff/deliver ballots unless a polling center has ANSF
security, making observation moot. End Comment.
6. (SBU) The International Observer Secretariat will convene a
smaller group of Embassies to plot out who will visit which
precincts in Kabul in order to de-conflict routes. UNAMA and OSCE
will also be visiting polling stations on "E-day", although not as
observers.
7. (SBU) Dirk Buda of the European Commission Office raised his
concern that the IEC's high number of accreditations (138,806
provincial council candidate agents, and 36,509 presidential
candidate agents as of 12 August) would cause clogging at polling
centers. UNDP-ELECT noted that polling station workers may limit
the number of agents and observers in a polling center.
EIKENBERRY