AFTER THE TALIBAN: HIGH EXPECTATIONS IN HELMAND'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002261

(C O R R E C T E D COPY - CLASSIFICATION)

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID AF
SUBJECT: AFTER THE TALIBAN: HIGH EXPECTATIONS IN HELMAND'S
NAWA DISTRICT

Classified By: Interagency Provincial Affairs Deputy Coordinator Hoyt Y
ee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Joint U.S. Marine and Afghan National
Security Forces (ANSF) operations in Helmand's Nawa District
have resulted in visible progress since Operation Khanjar
commenced July 2. Helmand Governor Mangal held a
well-attended shura July 23. The local market has seen
growing numbers of merchants. Plans are in place to
introduce a sizable ANSF presence in order to maintain
momentum. The district's close proximity and population base
near the capital city of Lashkar Gah make it a strategic
counter-insurgency anchor. The district's Provincial Council
representative recently noted that while security had
improved, some prominent residents had yet to return to Nawa
because of fears of IEDs on major roads. Marine companies
are currently moving into hardened "hold" positions
throughout the district. Polling sites will be open on
election day. END SUMMARY.

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CLEARING OPERATION: SO FAR, SO GOOD
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2. (C) Marine units, joined by Afghan Army soldiers, spread
throughout Nawa District beginning July 2, as part of the
larger Operation Khanjar. Taliban attacks were minimal, with
reports of fighters moving into the nearby Marjah area --
which has not yet been cleared, but eventually will be.
Marine companies continue to patrol key sectors and have
begun to establish patrol bases. Nawa's once vacant main
bazaar is again a community gathering place, with more shops
opening.

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SHURA: SECURITY A SHARED RESPONSIBILITY
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3. (U) Governor Mangal led a shura July 23 in Nawa attended
by approximately 600-700 residents. He was accompanied by an
ANA brigade commander, NDS chief, provincial council
representative, and police chief. Several elders and two
mullahs spoke to the assembled residents as well, all echoing
similar themes: security is a shared responsibility; the
joint Marine-ANSF clearing operation provided an opportunity
for projects and economic life to return, alongside a
persistent security presence; and, the Taliban burned schools
and clinics, never building any. The Second Marine
Expeditionary Brigade's (2d MEB) Commanding General also
reinforced to those gathered the importance of community
cooperation with Marine and ANSF units.

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PC MEMBER: SOME WILL VOTE, OTHERS NOT
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4. (U) Nawa Provincial Council representative Haji Toor Khan
told State Rep to 2d MEB that while security had improved,
key leaders who had fled Nawa when Taliban were in control
remained in Lash. Fears about IEDs along roadways remained
their major concern. He said that while some in Nawa would
vote in the upcoming election, others would not, adding that
Nawa residents were still waiting to see whether the security
improvements would last.

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RESIDENTS: BETTER SECURITY,
. . . BUT FOR HOW LONG?
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5. (U) State Rep visited Nawa over a two-day period in July
and met with a number of residents and a local mullah. Most
said security had improved, but that the local population
remained wary of Taliban reinfiltration. The mullah stressed
that Nawa residents "were tired of war" and that the people
would participate in shuras "especially if you discuss
schools and clinics." (NOTE: A Marine civil affairs unit has
begun to make plans to refurbish a centrally located clinic;
Helmand's health director has told us that doctors would be
ready to staff it. END NOTE)


6. (U) Several elders in the bazaar told State Rep that the
duration of the new Marine role in Nawa represented the most
important factor for stability, alongside a persistent ANSF
presence. Both police and ANA work with Marines in the area
in joint fashion, with Marine infantry companies spread
throughout priority locations.

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KABUL 00002261 002 OF 002


COMMENT
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7. (C) The combined ANSF-Marine operation in Nawa has
resulted in improved security. The area is strategically
located next to Helmand's capital, Lashkar Gah. Taliban
fighters have reportedly moved from Nawa -- to avoid direct
contact with Marines -- into neighboring Marjah. With
baseline security established, the provincial government has
an opportunity to establish representation (a district
governor is on-site) and begin to deliver basic services.
The recent shura bodes well for improved, albeit cautious,
confidence among the people. However, the key factor for the
war-weary local population will likely remain the overall
endurance of Marines and ANSF -- and government officials )-
as Taliban forces regroup and increasingly test our initial
counter-insurgency success. The long-term "battle" for Nawa
has only just begun.
EIKENBERRY