USG GUIDANCE AND BACKGROUND REGARDING THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 002105

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: USG GUIDANCE AND BACKGROUND REGARDING THE
PROCESS OF AFGHANISTAN'S PREPARATIONS FOR THE AUGUST
20 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS


1. Summary: This cable provides suggested guidance and background
for USG discussions on the 2009 Afghan presidential and provincial
council elections in advance of the August 20 polling day. The
guidance applies to U.S., Afghan, and international audiences.
Paragraphs 2-4 outline the USG elections objectives and context.
Paragraph 5 is a suggested senior U.S. official statement.
Paragraphs 6-11 outline USG guidance. Paragraphs 12-20 outline
as-needed press guidance. We shared and received comments from
ISAF, UNAMA, Canada, and the UK. We copied it to the EU Observer
Mission for their information.

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Overarching USG Elections Objectives and Context
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2. The USG is pursuing four objectives related to the Afghan
Elections: (1) Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission (IEC)
leads preparations and conducts secure, credible, and inclusive
presidential and provincial council elections on August 20, 2009;
(2) the people of Afghanistan understand their rights, support the
elections, register to, and exercise their right to vote; (3) The
United States and international partners, working through the United
Nations and ISAF, actively contribute to strengthening the capacity
of Afghan institutions and mechanisms required to protect the
credibility, security, and inclusivity of the elections to take
place on August 20, 2009. This includes working toward a "level
playing field" for all candidates; (4) the people of Afghanistan
understand that the U.S. will remain impartial, neither opposing nor
supporting any particular Afghan Presidential or Provincial Council
candidate. The U.S. interest is that Afghans exercise their right
to elect their own leadership.

3. In spite of the difficult security conditions, Afghans have
shown a strong commitment to the elections taking place; 41
candidates initiated a campaign for the Presidency, more than 3200
candidates are seeking Provincial Council positions, and 17 million
people throughout the country are registered to vote. The number of
presidential candidates has decreased as candidates drop out of the
race and endorse an opponent. (The current number is 40. One other
has publically withdrawn, but not completed the formalities.) All
public statements should reflect this situation.

4. In support of the objectives, the US has outlined efforts worth
approximately $260 million to support the Presidential and
Provincial Council election efforts this year. The total breaks down
as follows: The U.S. provided $65 million to the UN Development
Program (UNDP) for voter registration for Afghanistan's 2009
elections and another $55 million in FY09 Economic Support Funds
(ESF) to UNDP to support election costs. Through our traditional
implementing partners, such as NGOs, we have committed an additional
$115 million for voter outreach, voter education, political party
development, IEC security, and Afghan elections process capacity
building and are in the process of approving nearly $25 million for
election observation and logistics.
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Recommendation for a Senior U.S. Official Statement
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5. Suggested text of a Senior U.S. official statement (on/about
August 6)
In two weeks the polls open in Afghanistan's presidential elections,
the first they have led and the first fully contested elections in
their history. Significantly, after decades of violence, Afghans
will choose their future government by the ballot. They have held
substantive debates on issues of importance to all Afghans; they
have investigated and punished allegations of misbehavior during the
campaign; and they have, to the extent possible, provided for the
security of the maximum number of voters in all parts of the
country. The United States will work with the Afghan government,
Coalition, ISAF, and International forces, the United Nations and
the rest of the international community to ensure a credible,
inclusive and secure election. We call on Afghan citizens to
fulfill their democratic responsibility to choose their next
government.
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Public Guidelines
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6. US Government elements must not project assessments ahead of
time about the credibility, security, or inclusivity of the Afghan
elections. As an Afghan-led election, Afghan institutions,
including the Independent Election Commission (IEC),the Electoral
Complaints Commission (ECC),and Electoral Media Commission (EMC),
along with the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are capable
of, and responsible for, ensuring these elements. Only the IEC can
officially announce results. The international community supports
these Afghan institutions.


7. US Government must avoid predicting a winner of the presidential

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election. Only the IEC can announce results. It will formally do so
after they have tallied the votes and adjudicated complaints; any
premature "calling" of the election will prejudice this process. As
President Obama outlined, "each nation gives life to democracy in
its own way, grounded in the traditions of its own people. The
United States does not support or oppose any particular Presidential
or Provincial Council candidate. Instead, we support the right of
the people of Afghanistan to choose their own leaders."


8. In the event of a severe security or political incident, such as
the death of a candidate or attempt to change elections scheduling
or framework before the election, any comments should focus on the
obligation of the Afghan government and institutions to follow the
Constitution and laws. The death of a candidate before the election
does not invalidate the election. These topics should not generally
be discussed openly as possibilities or likelihoods.


9. Embassy believes the senior US official statement (Para 5)
should be released on August 6, two weeks before voting, for maximum
effect in Afghanistan and elsewhere. As-needed press guidance on
issues of irregularity in preparations or security follows, and will
be updated on a weekly basis.


10. Embassy expects NGOs to complete and publicly release
approximately four nationwide public opinion surveys and eight
qualitative surveys from August 5 to August 15, 2009. These
surveys, including expected horse race statistics obtained in July,
will likely affect the overall campaign environment.


11. IEC, UN, The Government Media and Information Center (GMIC),
international donors, Coalition Forces, ISAF and Embassy
representatives are working on a coordinated crisis communication
plan that outlines talking points for irregular elections issues,
such as elections related theft or attacks. Embassy will forward
this information with appropriate elaboration NLT August 10.

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As-needed press guidance:
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12. Who is leading the election effort? Are they doing a good job?

A: Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission is, for the first
time, leading the administration of the coming elections, the first
truly contested election in Afghan history. Are they doing a good
job? Yes, they are doing a good job under very difficult
conditions. It is a tough job to hold an election in wartime. The
success of voter registration, the ability of the IEC to make their
supply timelines, and limited violence related to the election
demonstrate significant progress. In addition to the IEC, all of
the Afghan institutions involved are pulling their share. The
Afghan Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Defense, and National
Directorate of Security (NDS) are working countrywide, coordinating
effectively across their offices and with the international
community, ISAF, and Coalition forces to plan for the security
challenges faced. Only the IEC can announce official results.
Significantly, the elections represent a mechanism to support a
peaceful transition or evolution of power in the country. This is a
distinct change from Afghanistan's recent history where violence was
the only means. As an impartial actor, the international
community's role has been to offer resources and expertise to help
the IEC implement secure, credible, and inclusive elections and
build the capacity of Afghan institutions, including the ANSF.
Instrumental to ensuring IEC impartiality, the Afghan and
International media, United Nations, and the international community
will monitor the IEC's activities to ensure their impartiality.

13. How many polling sites are there - aren't there issues about
closing sites and disenfranchising Pashtun voters?

A: The last Presidential election, organized by the International
Community, used only 4807 polling centers. The number of centers
this time far exceeds those open in 2004.

The IEC will open over [5000 - number will grow as decisions are
made] polling centers, covering all 34 provinces, and is on schedule
with supplying these centers with election materials. The IEC has
not yet determined the final number of polling centers because they
continue to consider expansion to additional locations. In some
cases, the IEC is still reviewing the exact location of polling
centers because of technical or nearby security considerations. The
location and final number of the polling centers will be publicized
in early August when the preparations are finalized, but still early
enough to inform voters and supply the centers successfully.

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Security
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14. Will the elections take place? There is a war going on,
especially in the South.

A: We expect, and all indications are the elections will take place
as scheduled on August 20, 2009. ANSF, ISAF, International and
Coalition Forces, and the IEC have cooperated and planned
extensively to help ensure the Afghan government can implement
effective measures to provide safety for the Afghan voters. ANSF
and ISAF have assessed polling center locations and held coordinated
- inter-Afghan agency- local and nationwide exercises with ISAF to
ensure readiness for Election Day.
Any attacks on the elections process is an attack on the Afghan
people. Ongoing violence caused by enemies of peace is a concern
for everyone. In addition to, and in cooperation with ANSF security
plans, many local leaders have announced intentions to safeguard
their community and the people's right to vote.
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Credibility
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15. What measures are in place to prevent or reduce fraud?

A: The credibility of the Afghan elections will be determined by
the Afghan leaders and the people who share the responsibility of
protecting their rights and safeguarding the process. The IEC is
planning to meet and overcome any election obstacles, such as
misplaced or damaged ballots, to ensure the rights of all Afghans
are respected.

16. Exactly what can the Afghan authorities do?

A: The IEC has planned numerous measures to deter and detect fraud
in the time leading to, during and following the election. These
measures include the use of indelible ink, local counting and
publication of ballots cast, redundant tracking of results, random
nationwide audits of voting results to detect irregularities,
accreditation of candidate agents, and thousands of domestic and
international observers. However, no country is immune from
attempts at election fraud and no electoral safeguard is foolproof.
The goal is to have structures and procedures in place to deter and
minimize such fraud.

17. Aren't the enforcement mechanisms toothless?

A: The Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) continues to
investigate complaints against the process and about candidates.
There are many rumors and accusations of potential wrong doing. The
ECC is working within its authorities and legal provisions to
investigate and adjudicate these issues. Since initiating
operations, the ECC has imposed sanctions for violations of
electoral laws, including fines and disqualification of candidates.
In this adjudication process, the sanctioned parties are named
publicly which provides further deterrence. The ECC is expanding
its staff and nationwide presence. Technical experts are working
with the ECC to improve its adjudication speed, and it continues to
operate in a lawful and balanced manner. The ECC is the only entity
with the authority to review and adjudicate electoral violations and
all possible cases should be documented and passed to the ECC for
investigation. Individuals can also raise a complaint and urge the
ECC to initiate an investigation into it on its own. It's important
to remember the complaints must be verifiable. Understandably, the
ECC can not take action on accusation alone.

18. What about media bias in favor of President Karzai?

A: It is a fact that the sitting president enjoys important media
advantages which accrue to incumbents in all electoral systems.
With that said, all Presidential candidates in Afghanistan have had
or will have the opportunity to appear in the media through radio,
TV or print interviews, roundtables, and discussions. In addition
to private and state media efforts to this goal, the Electoral Media
Commission (EMC) is conducting a sponsored advertising program,
which ensures that Presidential candidates and their views are aired
before radio and TV audiences countrywide.
The EMC also actively monitors nationwide print, radio, and TV media
broadcasts and has been diligent in publishing its findings, without
fear or favor, and working within its authority to mitigate
disparities. In the publication of its weekly media monitoring
analysis, the EMC both criticizes and commends publically Afghan
media sources for the equity of its coverage. The EMC analysis is
subsequently adopted by Afghan and international media
representatives and used in further scrutiny of the process.
Independent media, both Afghan and international, are instrumental
in realizing the credibility of the elections. By documenting and
reporting on issues, scrutinizing rumors, and reportng accurately
they also support the process. Afghan and international media
representatives plan to cover the elections countrywide.
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Inclusivity

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19. President Karzai and others say that the Pashtun vote will be
suppressed, which could affect the credibility and outcome of the
vote. Is this true?

A: There are many, many more polling centers this year than the
4,800 of the first Afghan Presidential election in 2004. From
October 2008-February 2009, Afghans supported the process of voter
registration and registered to vote country wide with little
associated violence. Afghans, regardless of ethnicity, will have the
opportunity to vote if they choose to do so.
Afghan leaders at all levels, including presidential candidates,
have the obligation to ensure their country men and women have the
opportunity to vote. The inclusivity and credibility of the poll
will rely on Afghan leaders' character and honesty, as it does in
all countries.

20. What is the other election about?

Thousands of Provincial Council candidates are also campaigning for
office to help manage the local affairs of each of Afghanistan's 34
provinces. The Afghan people must decide who is best qualified for
the positions. With nearly 3,200 candidates, including 328 women,
vying for 420 seats, they have never before had such a wide choice.
EIKENBERRY