AFGHANISTAN/COUNTERNARCOTICS: UNODC PREDICTS BIG

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 000179


E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2019
TAGS: SNAR DEA EAID ECON PINR PREL PTER AF
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN/COUNTERNARCOTICS: UNODC PREDICTS BIG
DECREASE IN 2009 POPPY CULTIVATION

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons 1.4 (B and D)

SUMMARY:
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1. (C) According to the head of the UNODC's Kabul office,
poppy cultivation in Afghanistan will decline by as much as
30 percent in 2009, and the number of poppy-free provinces
could rise from 18 to 22. While market factors are driving
much of this reduction, Afghan and international incentive
and enforcement programs also play an important role. UNODC
plans to focus its 2009 efforts inside Afghanistan in the
South and West, and will work to improve counternarcotics
coordination with other regional actors, including Iran,
Pakistan, and Russia. In Kabul, the Afghan government and
UNODC are seeking financial support to help large numbers of
heroin addicts living in the old Russian Cultural Center. If
UNODC predictions are close to accurate, Afghan poppy
cultivation will have been reduced by about 45 percent in two
years. END SUMMARY.

LESS POPPY IN 2009
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2. (C) Jean-Luc Lemahieu, the newly arrived head of the Kabul
office of the UN Office of Drug Control (UNODC),told
Ambassador Wood during a January 24 courtesy call that UNODC
expects Afghan poppy cultivation to drop dramatically in

2009. Although the UNODC's annual Opium Winter Rapid
Assessment Survey (ORAS) has not yet been released, Lemahieu
confirmed that the report will predict an overall reduction
in poppy cultivation. Lemahieu said this could be as much as
thirty percent of the area cultivated in 2008 -- i.e., more
than 50,000 hectares fewer than last year. If the ORAS is
accurate, 2009 will be the second consecutive year in which
poppy cultivation decreased significantly, as UNODC reported
a 19 percent reduction in 2008. This follows record high
levels of cultivation in 2006 and 2007. The number of
provinces considered "poppy free" by the UNODC could rise
from 18 to 22 this year. Lemahieu cautioned that, as the
ORAS is based primarily on interviews with farmers in areas
accessible to UNODC surveyors, it is not infallible; on the
other hand, ORAS predictions have often proven relatively
accurate in the past, he added.


3. (C) According to Lemahieu, the anticipated reduction will
largely be driven by "market factors" such as the high cost
of wheat and relatively low cost of opium. He readily
acknowledged, however, that incentives such as the Good
Performers' Initiative (GPI) and law enforcement measures,
including eradication, also play an important role. In some
provinces -- such as Nangarhar, Kapisa, Herat, and Badakhshan
-- "effective eradication" campaigns could be decisive in
obtaining or maintaining "poppy free" status this year, given
the relatively small areas of cultivation (usually only a few
hundred hectares) in these provinces. Ambassador Wood
observed that the "nexus" between counterinsurgency and
counternarcotics is now widely understood, and stressed the
critical importance of improving security and governance in
poppy-growing areas. If farmers don't believe they have a
choice, he said, then neither carrots nor sticks will have
much impact on their growing decisions.

MORE REGIONAL COOPERATION
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4. (C) Lemahieu described several UNODC proposals to improve
regional counternarcotics cooperation. Russia, Tajikistan,
and Turkmenistan all have an interest in combating the
narcotics trade, and could do more to support international
efforts in this area. Iran is also a key player in the
region, and should be encouraged to play a positive role.
UNODC, he said, planned to support joint border control
operations between Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan,
coordinated through a regional border control center in
Nimruz province. Ambassador Wood made clear that the U.S.
would not "stand in the way" of such cooperation, and would
be interested in learning the outcome of the proposed joint
projects.


5. (C) Within Afghanistan, Lemahieu said that UNODC planned
to concentrate its efforts in the South and West,
particularly provinces like Nimruz and Herat where the
coalition presence was relatively small. He explained that
UNODC wanted to operate in areas where it could make a "real
contribution" without being overwhelmed by larger-scale
actors. The total UNODC budget for Afghanistan is USD 20
million. Ambassador Wood observed that such a division of
labor was unobjectionable, as long as it did not create the
impression that UNODC and other actors could not work in the
same regions. Lemahieu stressed that he would take care to
avoid creating such a perception.

PROBLEMS AT RUSSIAN CULTURAL CENTER
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6. (C) Turning to Kabul, Lemahieu sought U.S. support in
dealing with the large number of drug addicts congregating at
the old Russian Cultural Center. This issue has become a
concern for the Afghan government, which is worried about the
security, public health, and public relations aspects of the
deteriorating situation. UNODC is working to help the
Afghans address the issue, but lacks sufficient resources; he
estimated about USD 40,000 would be needed to properly secure
the facility and improve treatment for the addicts there in
the short term. Lemahieu said the UN, ISAF, international
agencies, and foreign governments were all being approached
with requests for financial or material assistance.
Ambassador Wood expressed doubt regarding the central
government's short term approach to the problem, and
suggested that other actors -- such as Russia -- might be
better placed to support this effort than the U.S. right now.

COMMENT
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7. (C) The ORAS is an imperfect indicator. Last year it
underestimated progress. If this year's ORAS proves close to
accurate, however, then the area under poppy cultivation will
have declined by about 45 percent in two years. END COMMENT.

WOOD