Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09KABUL1295
2009-05-21 09:12:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Kabul
Cable title:  

CODEL CARPER - WELCOME TO AFGHANISTAN

Tags:  PGOV PREL OREP PTER NARC PHUM KDEM AF 
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P 210912Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
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INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 001295 

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TAGS: PGOV PREL OREP PTER NARC PHUM KDEM AF
SUBJECT: CODEL CARPER - WELCOME TO AFGHANISTAN

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TAGS: PGOV PREL OREP PTER NARC PHUM KDEM AF
SUBJECT: CODEL CARPER - WELCOME TO AFGHANISTAN


1. (SBU) Senators: We warmly welcome your visit to Afghanistan


2. (SBU) The government and the public here have welcomed the
United States' new strategic purpose to defeat al Qaeda and
its supporters and to prevent their return to Afghanistan and
Pakistan. To accomplish this, President Obama's strategy
rests on three operational lines: strengthening security,
building governance capacity at both the national and local
levels, and developing the economy. To meet these
challenges, we are expanding the U.S. military presence (both
to protect the Afghan people and to train Afghan security
forces to assume that full burden in future),and the number
of U.S. civilians working in a range of disciplines, at both
the national and sub-national levels. The most immediate
political objective, which we share with the Afghans and our
Coalition partners, is to ensure the legitimacy and success
of the August 20 presidential and provincial council
elections.

Elections
--------------


3. (SBU) The August elections influence nearly everything
political here. Presidential candidate registration closed
May 8, and at least 44 candidates turned in completed
registration forms. President Karzai appears to hold a
significant advantage over his nearest competitors:
ex-Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, ex-Finance Minister
Ashraf Ghani, and Deputy Speaker of the Lower House Mirwais
Yaseni. In the end, only those three of the half-dozen
rumored top-tier challengers registered, alongside relatively
obscure running mates, signaling a lack of broad-based
support for their campaigns among Afghanistan's political
powerbrokers. Other registered candidates of note include
two women who are as obscure nationally as the other
candidates. Karzai is confident that he will win
re-election.


4. (SBU) Sensing the popular mood, both Karzai and opposition
candidates alike claim to welcome international support for a
level playing field and free and transparent elections. The
Independent Election Commission (IEC),with strong
international backing and technical support from UNDP, has
worked to even the odds somewhat and foster at least

theoretical opportunity for real competition. The IEC
resisted Karzai's ploys to advance the election date to
Spring 2009, which would have cut off the opposition's
nascent attempts at organization. It issued a decree in May,
spelling out government officials' duty of impartiality. A
key part of its mission is to ensure that government media
provide equal access to candidates. The IEC will fund some
$2 million in private air time for candidates - money that
comes from our $40 million contribution to the $224 million
election budget. We are stepping up our own voter education
work with women, youth, media, and other civil society
groups, adding an extra $700,000 in State Department
democracy program funding in May. We and others in the
international community are pressing the government to issue
its own Hatch Act-like regulations, and urging it to finalize
a media law strengthening protections for freedom of
expression, including in political campaigns.

Complex Security Situation
--------------


5. (SBU) The Afghan people and their government regard
civilian casualties resulting from coalition operations as
the most sensitive security issue. You will arrive during a
joint Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) and Coalition
investigation, examining events surrounding a complex series
of Taliban attacks on civilians, ANSF and Coalition forces in
Farah province. The joint investigation team has confirmed
that some number of civilians were killed in the course of
the fighting, but has been unable to determine with certainty
which of those casualties were Taliban fighters and which
were non-combatants. The even more volatile issue is the
question of how many civilian casualties were the result of
Coalition air strikes and how many were purposely killed by
the Taliban. The challenge of how to balance security
operations and non-combatant protection continues. ISAF
Commander General McKiernan directed in December substantial
changes to coalition tactics, techniques and procedures to
minimize civilian casualties.


6. (SBU) Afghanistan will remain short of security personnel
for at least several years. There are about 80,000 Afghan
army, about 87,000 Afghan police, and about 58,000
international military personnel to maintain security. The
Afghan army is growing by more than 2,500 personnel per month
and should reach 134,000 in 2011. U.S forces are expected to
top 68,000 in 2010; there are approximately 32,000 non-U.S.
international forces in Afghanistan. We are working with

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Interior Minister Atmar to accelerate police reform and
training, reduce corruption, and create vetted, specialized
police units.

Developing Governance Abilities
--------------


7. (SBU) Karzai's state and government suffer from inability
to deliver essential services, compounded by endemic
corruption, poverty, criminality, insurgency and ethno-tribal
politics, all exacerbated by three decades of war and misrule
since the Russian invasion of 1979. Electoral dynamics are
further complicating the problem, leading Karzai to make
expedient decisions on one hand, but also to appoint
top-flight leaders like Minister Atmar to deliver police
services. Nonetheless, rapid transformation is underway in
Afghanistan and there is much to work with. Atmar is only
one among a solid group of impressively capable and clean
technocratic leaders. What the state and civil society lack
in broad institutional capacity is offset by the striking
dedication, energy and patriotism of many Afghans, including
many who have returned from comfortable lives abroad to
rebuild their country. The energy and ambition of Afghan
youth are particularly striking at the burgeoning university
campuses


8. (U) In order to accelerate improved responsiveness in
Afghan institutions and local capacity, our new strategy
requires an increase in the U.S. civilian presence alongside
the increases in U.S. military personnel. New positions in
Afghanistan under consideration in the FY-08 supplemental
request from all agencies would total 421. There are many
more positions with separate funding mechanisms. Of the 421,
we will fill 56 by July 2009, 49 in the field and 7 in Kabul.
The remaining 365, split between 224 in the field and 141 in
Kabul, will arrive between August 2009 and March 2010, phased
in coordination with arrival of military units and
establishment of safer operating environments. The hires
will comprise the following offices and agencies: various
State Department and USAID elements, Department of Justice
(DOJ) prosecutors and the FBI (Legal Attache),Department of
Treasury, Department of Homeland Security (DHS),Department
of Transportation (DOT),Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA),Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA),Health and
Human Services (HHS/CDC),and the U.S. Department of
Agriculture.


9. (SBU) In Kabul, the focus is on building capacity;
creating a merit-based, professional bureaucracy; and
delivering services to the public. Strong ministries include
Foreign Affairs, Defense, Public Health, Education, Finance,
Communications, Rural Development, and Counternarcotics.
Interior and Agriculture stand out among ministries due to
strong leadership. We work closely with those entities, but
also work effectively with the other ministries, although
mixed agendas or a legacy of weakness slow progress. For
instance, the Supreme Court and the Ministry of Justice
suffer from the acute lack of qualified professionals, a
legal system that combines elements of Sharia, tribal, and
Western law, and a lack of national consensus on the way
forward.


10. (SBU) Outside Kabul, U.S. civilian and military efforts
are aimed at strengthening local government at all levels,
through Brigade Task Forces, PRTs, and (with the upcoming
civilian increase) District Support Teams. We work equally
with traditional leadership structures and those who gained
power through force or wealth during the days of conflict,
but have proven themselves ready to cooperate with
constitutional government and rule of law. Lack of local
consensus, traditionally weak connections between the capital
and provinces, long-standing rivalries, distrust among
communities, and the presence of insurgent or criminal
spoilers complicate our task. The goal is to support and
help develop responsive, reliable leadership in local
communities, bound to the capital in a reciprocal way.

Little Momentum on Taliban reconciliation
--------------


11. (SBU) Reconciliation with Taliban or other insurgent
leaders is controversial here. Many welcome the possibility
of reduced violence and instability, while others (mainly
non-Pashtuns, women, and certain civil society groups) fear
an intra-Pashtun deal could come at the expense of their
interests. So far, all government reconciliation efforts
have been premised on respect for the constitution, which has
allowed us to support these initiatives. Although the Fall
2008 Saudi attempt to begin talks generated much interest,
there has been little concrete progress in that or any other
initiative. Karzai credits Egypt's Sheikh al-Azhar with a
substantial helpful role, and hopes for further support from

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al-Azhar for the reconciliation process. U.S. policy on the
issues is as stated by President Obama on March 27: "There
will be no peace without reconciliation among former
enemies... That's why we will work with local leaders, the
Afghan government, and international partners to have a
reconciliation process in every province."

Economy
--------------


12. (SBU) Recovery in agricultural production, following
severe drought in 2008, is expected to boost real economic
growth to about nine percent in 2009-10. The Central Bank is
well-led. Inflation is virtually flat, and the Afghan
currency is stable. The pre-election period is not conducive
to implementing economic reforms to support private sector
development. That said, relatively young, dynamic and
reformist ministers of Finance, Commerce and Agriculture are
taking positive steps to improve the business climate.
Afghanistan's key economic challenge is to establish
conditions for self-sustaining growth and strengthen fiscal
sustainability so that it can reduce dependence on foreign
aid over time. It remains one of the poorest countries in
the world and far from meeting this goal.


13. (SBU) In our economic assistance programs, the U.S. is
gradually channeling more aid through the Afghan government,
and urging other donors to do the same, while ensuring proper
transparency and accountability. Our motto is: "Afghan
leadership, Afghan capacity, Afghan sustainability." The
U.S. is also placing renewed emphasis in its assistance
programs supporting agriculture, both as a basis for
sustainable growth and to create licit economic alternatives
to the insurgency and poppy cultivation. U.S. assistance
will focus on agriculture programs that create jobs, develop
roads and water systems supporting farm production and trade,
and expand farm credit opportunities. We are also
encouraging greater Af-Pak cooperation, for example to enable
transshipment of Afghan agricultural exports across Pakistan
to the massive Indian market.

Human Rights Work Ahead
--------------


14. (SBU) Civil society activists and the Ministry of
Women's Affairs drafted a progressive domestic violence bill,
currently under review by the Ministry of Justice. More
generally, a thin but outspoken stratum of Afghan society
increasingly is giving voice to a desire for positive
political reform and social change -- reflecting the outlooks
of an extremely young demographic in this conservative
society. Nonetheless, other aspects of Afghanistan's human
rights record remain poor, including violence and
discrimination against women, lack of due process and weak
rule of law, and intimidation restricting the exercise of
free speech. In the face of powerful conservative religious
and tribal patriarchal traditions, the Afghan government has
shown a lack of sustained will to press forward a systematic
campaign to promote and protect human rights, particularly
women's rights.


15. (SBU) We, and others, are tracking two high profile cases
involving freedom of religious expression. In October 2008,
the Afghan Supreme Court upheld a local court's conviction
and 20-year prison sentence for student Sayed Pervez
Kambakhsh, for distributing an article over the internet
about women's rights that allegedly defamed Islam. The
international community is pushing for a presidential pardon,
and we would ask you to do the same privately with Karzai.
Also, Ghows Zalmai and Mullah Qari Mushtaq are challenging
their 20-year sentences, handed down by a Kabul Appeals Court
in February, for publishing and distributing a Dari
translation of the Koran that did not include the original
Arabic text - an act considered sacrilegious by extremely
doctrinaire Muslims.


16. (SBU) In March President Karzai signed a Shia Family Law
with provisions that would violate women's constitutional
guarantee to equal rights. Pressure from the USG, the
international community, and Afghan human rights activists
has blocked its enactment, pending a constitutional review by
the Ministry of Justice. We continue to raise our concerns
with the law and our expectation of a transparent review
process inclusive of women and civil society.

Narcotics: Positive Trends, Challenge in the South
-------------- --------------


17. (SBU) The narcotics challenge continues in the south,
where seven provinces now account for 98 percent of the
country's opium, and narcotics trafficking and the insurgency
have become mutually sustaining. To support the Government

KABUL 00001295 004 OF 004


of Afghanistan and local people in confronting it, we have
organized a civilian-military Combined Joint Inter-Agency
Task Force (CJIATF) with U.K. and Canadian participation.
CJIATF has begun comprehensive counter-narcotics planning for
2009-2010 combining the full range of civilian and military
resources. We are now increasing our focus on boosting licit
agriculture, improving local governance, and increasing
interdiction of drug traffickers to disrupt the link between
narcotics trafficking and the insurgency. We will continue
poppy eradication efforts, but will shift emphasis and
resources more towards the former objectives.


18. (SBU) There is some promising news. Poppy cultivation
dropped by 19 percent in 2008, the first reduction since

2005. Just as notably, poppy-free provinces grew from 13 to
18, or more than half of all provinces. Governors in three
formerly major poppy cultivating provinces - Badakhshan,
Balkh, and Nangarhar - have succeeded in eliminating or
nearly eliminating poppy cultivation. Poppy cultivation has
died away by itself in other parts of the north and east of
the country. This year, Helmand Governor Gulabuddin Mangal,
whose province produces more than half of Afghanistan's opium
poppy, conducted a comprehensive multi-season campaign
against poppy cultivation in a 100-square mile area of
central Helmand. Mangal's campaign combined public
information, agricultural assistance, and law enforcement,
including eradication by Afghan police with force protection
from the Afghan army. The UN Office for Drugs and Crime
believes poppy cultivation has dropped substantially in
Helmand and predicts more poppy-free provinces in other parts
of the country.

International Community and Afghanistan
--------------


19. (SBU) Relations between the government and the
international community are uneven. The UN presence is
strong; SRSG Kai Eide plays a key coordination role, but
suffers from insufficient budgetary and personnel commitment
from New York. International support is holding as
demonstrated at recent conferences, including the March 31
Hague Conference where more than 80 countries and
international organizations reaffirmed their long-term
commitment to Afghanistan and the April 2009 JCMB where
donors committed to providing funding for an almost 5,000
member increase in the Kabul police force in time for August
elections.

EIKENBERRY