SCENESETTER FOR CODEL LEAHY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 001226

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL OREP PTER NARC PHUM KDEM
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL LEAHY


1. (SBU) Embassy Kabul warmly welcomes your visit.


2. (SBU) The government and the public here have welcomed the
Administration's new strategy, agreeing on the merit and
priority of refocusing on defeating al Qaeda to prevent it,
and like-minded local and regional groups, from returning to
Afghanistan. President Obama's decision to send 21,000
additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan, including 4,000 to
train Afghan army and police personnel is one essential
component of this effort. Building governance capacity of
Afghan officials at both the national and local levels is
another essential component of our new strategy, and we are
expanding the U.S. civilian presence to meet the challenge.
Finally, we are working with Afghans and international
partners to ensure the success of the August 20 presidential
and provincial council election.


Elections
--------------


3. (SBU) The August elections influence nearly everything
political here. Presidential candidate registration closed
May 8, with at least 44 candidates turning in completed
registration forms. President Karzai appears to hold a
significant advantage over his nearest competitors. In the
end, only three of the half-dozen rumored top-tier
challengers registered, and two of those signed up alongside
relatively obscure running mates, signaling a lack of
broad-based support for their campaigns among Afghanistan's
political powerbrokers. The other registered candidates
include two women, communist-era figures, and parliamentary
backbenchers. Karzai is confident that he will win
re-election.


4. (SBU) Opposition candidates are urging and welcoming
international support for a level playing field and free and
transparent elections. The Independent Election Commission
(IEC),with our backing and technical support from UNDP, has
worked to even the odds and foster competition. The IEC
resisted Karzai's ploys to advance the election date to
spring 2009, which would have cut off the opposition's
nascent attempts at organization. It issued a decree in May,
spelling out government officials' duty of impartiality. A
key part of its mission is to ensure that government media
provide equal access to candidates. The IEC will fund some
$2 million in private air time for candidates - money that
comes from our $40 million contribution to the $224 million
election budget. We are stepping up our own voter education
work with women, youth, media, and other civil society
groups, adding an extra $700,000 in State Department
democracy program funding in May. We and others in the
international community are pressing the government to issue
its own Hatch Act-like regulations, and urging it to finalize
a media law strengthening protections for freedom of
expression, including in political campaigns.


Complex Security Situation
--------------


5. (SBU) Civilian casualties from coalition operations are
the most sensitive security issue between the coalition and
the government, and increasingly with the Afghan people
themselves. You will arrive during a joint Afghan National
Security Force and Coalition investigation, examining events
surrounding a complex series of Taliban attacks on civilians,
ANSF and coalition forces in Farah province. The joint
investigation team has confirmed that a number of civilians
were killed in the course of the fighting, but has been
unable to determine with certainty which of those casualties
were Taliban fighters and which were non-combatants. The
even more volatile issue is the question of how many civilian
casualties were the result of the coalition air strikes and
how many were purposely killed by the Taliban. The challenge
of how to balance security operations and non-combatant
protection continues. ISAF Commander General McKiernan
directed in December substantial changes to coalition
tactics, techniques and procedures to minimize civilian
casualties.


6. (SBU) Afghanistan will remain short of security personnel
for the foreseeable future. There are about 75,000 Afghan
army, 87,000 Afghan police, and about 58,000 international
military personnel to maintain security. The Afghan army is
growing by more than 2,500 personnel per month and should
reach 134,000 in 2011. U.S forces are expected to top 68,000
in 2010; there are approximately 32,000 non-U.S.
international forces in Afghanistan. We are working with
Interior Minister Atmar to accelerate police reform and
training, reduce corruption, and create vetted, specialized

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police units.

Developing Governance Abilities
--------------


7. (SBU) Karzai struggles to balance between institutional
and traditional informal governance, in an environment of
poverty, social exhaustion, illicit power centers arising
from decades of political breakdown, governmental incapacity,
criminality, and insurgency. Electoral dynamics are further
complicating the problem, leading Karzai to make expedient
decisions on one hand, but also to appoint top-flight leaders
like Minister Atmar to deliver police services.


8. (U) In order to accelerate improved responsiveness in
Afghan institutions and local capacity, our new strategy
calls for an increase in the U.S. civilian presence alongside
the increases in U.S. military personnel. New positions in
Afghanistan under consideration in the FY-08 supplemental
request from all agencies would total 421. There are many
more positions with separate funding mechanisms. Of the 421,
we will fill 56 by July 2009, 49 in the field and 7 in Kabul.
The remaining 365, split between 224 in the field and 141 in
Kabul, will arrive between August 2009 and March 2009, phased
in coordination with arrival of military units and
establishment of safe operating environment. The hires will
comprise the following offices and agencies: various State
Department and USAID elements, Department of Justice (DOJ)
prosecutors and the FBI (Legal Attache),Department of
Treasury, Department of Homeland Security (DHS),Department
of Transportation (DOT),Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA),Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA),Health and
Human Services (HHS/CDC),and the U.S. Department of
Agriculture.


9. (SBU) In Kabul, the focus is on building capacity;
creating a merit-based, professional bureaucracy; and
delivering services to the public. Strong ministries include
Foreign Affairs, Defense, Public Health, Education, Finance,
Communications, Rural Development, and Counternarcotics.
Interior and Agriculture stand out among ministries due to
strong leadership. We work closely with those entities, but
also work effectively with the other ministries, although
mixed agendas or a legacy of weakness slow progress. For
instance, the Supreme Court and the Ministry of Justice
suffer from the acute lack of qualified professionals, a
legal system that combines elements of Sharia, tribal, and
Western law, and a lack of national consensus on the way
forward.


10. (SBU) Outside Kabul, U.S. civilian and military efforts
are aimed at strengthening local government at all levels,
through Brigade Task Forces, PRTs, and (with the upcoming
civilian increase) District Support Teams. We work equally
with traditional leadership structures and those who gained
power through force or wealth during the days of conflict,
but have proven themselves ready to cooperate with
constitutional government and rule of law. Lack of local
consensus, traditionally weak connections between the capital
and provinces, long-standing rivalries, distrust among
communities, and the presence of insurgent or criminal
spoilers complicate our task. The goal is to support and
help develop responsive, reliable leadership in local
communities, bound to the capital in a reciprocal way.

Little Momentum on Taliban reconciliation
--------------


11. (SBU) Reconciliation with Taliban or other insurgent
leaders is controversial here. Many welcome the possibility
of reduced violence and instability, while others (mainly
non-Pashtuns, women, and certain civil society groups) fear a
Pashtun deal could come at the expense of their interests.
So far, all government reconciliation efforts have been
premised on respect for the constitution, which has allowed
us to support these initiatives. Although the Fall 2008
Saudi attempt to begin talks generated much interest, there
has been little concrete progress in that or any other
initiative. Karzai credits Egypt's Sheikh al-Azhar with a
substantial helpful role, and hopes for further support from
al-Azhar for the reconciliation process. U.S. policy on the
issues is as stated by President Obama on March 27: "There
will also be no peace without reconciliation among former
enemies... That's why we will work with local leaders, the
Afghan government, and international partners to have a
reconciliation process in every province."

Economy
--------------


12. (SBU) Recovery in agricultural production, following

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severe drought in 2008, is expected to boost real economic
growth to about nine percent in 2009-10. The Central Bank is
well-led. Inflation is virtually flat, and the Afghan
currency is stable. The pre-election period is not conducive
to implementing economic reforms to support private sector
development. That said, relatively young, dynamic and
reformist ministers of Finance, Commerce and Agriculture are
taking positive steps to improve the business climate.
Afghanistan's key economic challenge is to establish
conditions for self-sustaining growth and strengthen fiscal
sustainability so that it can reduce dependence on foreign
aid over time. It remains one of the poorest countries in
the world and far from meeting this goal.


13. (SBU) In our economic assistance programs, the U.S. is
gradually channeling more aid through the Afghan government,
and urging other donors to do the same, while ensuring proper
transparency and accountability. Our motto is: "Afghan
leadership, Afghan capacity, Afghan sustainability." The
U.S. is also placing renewed emphasis in its assistance
programs supporting Afghan agriculture, both as a basis for
sustainable growth and to create licit economic alternatives
to the insurgency and poppy cultivation. U.S. assistance
will focus on agriculture programs that create jobs, develop
roads and water systems supporting farm production and trade,
and expand farm credit opportunities. We are also
encouraging greater Af-Pak cooperation, for example to enable
transshipment of Afghan agricultural exports across Pakistan
to the massive Indian market.

Human Rights Work Ahead
--------------


14. (SBU) Aspects of Afghanistan's human rights record
remain poor, including violence and discrimination against
women, lack of due process and a weak rule of law, and
intimidation restricting the exercise of free speech. The
Afghan government has shown a lack of will to actively
promote and protect human rights, particularly freedom of
expression and women's rights.


15. (SBU) We, and others, are tracking two high profile
freedom of expression cases. In October 2008 the Afghan
Supreme Court upheld a local court's conviction and 20-year
prison sentence for student Sayed Pervez Kambakhsh,
purportedly for distributing an article over the Internet
about women's rights that defamed Islam. The international
community is pushing for a presidential pardon, and we would
ask you to do the same privately with Karzai. Also, Ghows
Zalmai and Mullah Qari Mushtaq are challenging their 20-year
sentences, handed down by a Kabul Appeals Court in February,
for publishing and distributing a Dari translation of the
Koran that did not include the original Arabic text.


16. (SBU) In March President Karzai signed a Shia Family Law
with provisions violating women's constitutional guarantee to
equal rights. Pressure from the USG, the international
community, and Afghan human rights activists has blocked its
enactment, pending a constitutional review. The Ministry of
Justice is charged with this review, which we are closely
monitoring. The Embassy continues to raise our concerns with
the law and our expectation of a transparent review process
inclusive of women and civil society. On a more positive
note, civil society and the Ministry of Women's Affairs
drafted a progressive domestic violence bill, currently under
review by the Ministry of Justice.

Narcotics: Positive Trends, Challenge in the South
-------------- --------------


17. (SBU) The narcotics challenge continues in the south,
where seven provinces now account for 98 percent of the
country's opium, and narcotics trafficking and the insurgency
have become mutually sustaining. In the coming year, U.S.
counter-narcotics efforts will increase focus on boosting
licit agriculture, improving local governance, and increasing
interdiction of drug traffickers to disrupt the link between
narcotics trafficking and the insurgency. We will continue
poppy eradication efforts, but we will shift emphasis and
resources more towards the former objectives. The ISAF-led
Combined Joint Inter-Agency Task Force has begun
comprehensive counter-narcotics planning for 2009-2010
combining the full range of civilian and military resources.


18. (SBU) There is some promising news. Poppy cultivation
dropped by 19 percent in 2008, the first reduction since

2005. Just as notably, poppy-free provinces grew from 13 to
18, or more than half of all provinces. Governors in three
formerly major poppy cultivating provinces - Badakhshan,
Balkh, and Nangarhar - have succeeded in eliminating or
nearly eliminating poppy cultivation. Poppy cultivation has

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died away by itself in other parts of the north and east of
the country. This year, Helmand Governor Gulabuddin Mangal,
whose province by itself produces more than half of
Afghanistan's opium poppy, conducted a comprehensive
multi-season campaign against poppy cultivation in a
100-square mile area of central Helmand. Mangal's campaign
combined public information, agricultural assistance, and law
enforcement, including eradication by Afghan police with
force protection from the Afghan army. The UN Office for
Drugs and Crime believes poppy cultivation has dropped
substantially in Helmand and predicts more
poppy-free provinces in other parts of the country.

International Community and Afghanistan
--------------


19. (SBU) Relations between the government and the
international community are uneven. The UN presence is
strong; SRSG Kai Eide plays a key coordination role, but
suffers from insufficient budgetary and personnel commitment
from New York. International support is holding as
demonstrated at recent conferences, including the March 31
Hague Conference where more than 80 countries and
international organizations reaffirmed their long-term
commitment to Afghanistan and the April 2009 JCMB where
donors committed to providing funding for an almost 5,000
member increase in the Kabul police force in time for August
elections.
EIKENBERRY