TWO JEDDAH-BASED SHURA COUNCIL MEMBERS COMMENT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JEDDAH 000265

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADDED SIPDIS PER DRAFTER)

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2014
TAGS: KPAO PREL SCUL KWMN KISL SA
SUBJECT: TWO JEDDAH-BASED SHURA COUNCIL MEMBERS COMMENT ON

REFORM, ISRAELI NUKES, AND IRAN

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Classified By: CG MARTIN R. QUINN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Charge's separate July 1 meetings with two Shura
Council members in Jeddah, one a reform-oriented,
U.S.-educated economist and the other a rather conventional
thinking Arab foreign policy intellectual, presented an
interesting contrast and a window into the personalities
serving on the Council. The former was focused on the need
for educational reform and said the Shura Council was on
balance a positive force for change, though limited by a lack
of professional staff. The latter saw Israel as entirely
responsible for the failure to achieve Middle East peace and
adamantly, if controversially, claimed that 80 percent of the
Arab public welcomes Iranian nuclear efforts as a
counter-force to Israel. While this flies in the face of
government and elite opinion, we might want to keep this
viewpoint in mind as we craft public diplomacy strategies to
build support for containing Iranian influence in the region.
End Summary.

KINGDOM MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN A GENERATION AGO
-------------- --


2. (C) According to Shura Council member Dr. Said al-Sheikh,
in July 1 meeting with Charge (Ambassador Erdman),Saudi
Arabia became more conservative after 1979 -- the year of the
Iranian revolution and the seizure of the Grand Mosque in
Mecca -- but was now undergoing quiet, gradual, but real
change. Al-Sheikh, a thoughtful chief economist at the
National Commercial Bank with a doctorate from the University
of Portland in Oregon, recalled an era when women in Saudi
Arabia dressed more liberally, when cinemas were a normal
part of life, and the presence of the religious police
(Commission for the Prevention of Vice and Promotion of
Virture) was more muted. Al-Sheikh was critical of Saudi
public education, where Islamic religious instruction, has
been more than 60 percent of the curriculum. While religion
was an important component, al-Sheikh said, he favored a
"broader educational platform" for students and praised King
Abdullah's efforts in this regard.

SHURA COUNCIL: GROWING
ROLE BUT LIMITED RESOURCES
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3. (C) According to al-Sheikh, the Shura Council remained
consultative in nature but was playing a growing role. For
example, unlike at its inception 16 years ago, the Shura
Council now had the ability to initiate action; it did not
need to wait for the king or Council of Ministers to raise an
issue. (Comment: The Governor of Mecca, Prince Khaled
al-Faisal, told Charge July 14 that a gradual expansion of
the Shura's role as a legislative body was not only welcomed
by the king, but was part of his plan for modernizing the
Kingdom. End Comment.)


4. (C) The Council, al-Sheikh added, faced difficulties with
members living in far-flung cities throughout the Kingdom and
with many -- like himself -- continuing to work in full-time,
non-Council occupations. Attendance at weekly Shura Council
sessions was usually far from 100 percent. The Council also
lacked professional staff, and this in practice limited the
ability of the Council to delve more deeply into issues and
to expand the Council's purview. Asked what the Council's net
impact was on reform, al-Sheikh said it was in fact a
"mirror" of society, composed of academics, engineers,
professionals, and religious scholars. On balance, it was a
positive force for change and reform.

ISRAELI NUKES AND "HISTORICAL WRONGDOING"
--------------


5. (C) Shura Council member Dr. Sadaka Fadl, a professor at
King Abdul Aziz University in Jeddah and a "foreign policy
expert" on the Council, assessed Middle East peace issues in
fairly conventional terms. Namely, Israel was entirely
responsible for the lack of peace, the Arabs had gone the
extra mile in embracing the Saudi-inspired Arab Peace Plan,
further concessions from the Arab side were neither warranted
nor possible, and it was to the United States to get Israel
to accept this generous offer. Expressing "pain in his heart"
for Israel's "historical wrongdoing," he nevertheless
accepted the need for a two-state solution. But he rejected
Charge's suggestion that all sides, including the Arabs,
needed to take additional steps to create conditions for the
early resumption of peace negotiations. He also had

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difficulty seeing the Arab Peace Plan as more than just a
starting point and expressed deep concern for the
"citizenship rights" of Arab citizens of Israel, whom he felt
would face expulsion in the wake of a final agreement. On the
nuclear issue, Sadaka asserted that Israel has deployed
200-300 nuclear weapons, noting that such weapons posted a
threat to Arabs and could be "used" politically to blackmail
and deter without ever actually launching them.

ARABS SUPPORT IRAN:
"DON'T BELIEVE WHAT PEOPLE TELL YOU"
--------------


6. (C) Raising his views on an Egyptian study, Fadl contended
that 80 percent of Arabs support Iran in its pursuit of
nuclear weaponry because the Islamic Republic is Israel's
declared enemy. Fadl adamantly repeated the percentage: "Most
people won't tell you the truth. I hope people are not just
telling you what you want to hear. People want Iran to get
the weapon so that they can confront Israel." Stopping short
of stating that most Arabs think or hope Iran will actually
use the weapon, Fadl was adamant that Iran's hard line
towards Israel attracts wide support in the Arab world.
Asked about the frequent negative attitudes of Saudis toward
the Shi'a, he said: "Look, the Shi'a are Muslims. The
Persians and the Arabs are not real enemies."

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) The difference between the two Shura Council members
is instructive, the one a thoughtful, U.S.-educated
economist/technocrat who wanted to see gradual but real
change, the other a more traditional, locally educated Arab
intellectual willing to embrace a two-state solution but
still with a lot of baggage from the past. While we have no
way of assessing from here the "Egyptian study" cited by
Fadl, it is noteworthy that a leading intellectual and Shura
Council member adamantly and repeatedly supports its
conclusion that 80 percent of the Arab street welcomes Iran's
nuclear effort as a counter-force to Israel. Needless to say,
this flies in the face of official and elite opinion, which
rightly views Iranian nuclear ambitions as a strategic threat
to the Kingdom and the region. Since our occupational hazard
is that we generally speak to elites and not the great,
unwashed masses, we should at least keep Fadl's arguments in
mind as we craft public diplomacy strategies for containing
Iranian trouble-making in the region.


8. (U) Ambassador Erdman has cleared this cable.
QUINN