SAUDI GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY REQUESTS US ASSISTANCE IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JEDDAH 000190

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/ARP - PLEASE PASS ACTION REQUEST TO US
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY; EMBASSY ABU DHABI PLEASE PASS TO USGS
TEAM IN AL-AIN; INFO CA, DS/IP/NEA, OES

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: AEMR ASEC CASC PGOV SA
SUBJECT: SAUDI GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY REQUESTS US ASSISTANCE IN
ANALYZING SEISMIC DATA AFTER RECENT EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY

REF: JEDDAH 0174

JEDDAH 00000190 001.2 OF 002



1. (U) SUMMARY. In May 26 meeting with the Saudi Geological
Society President to discuss the recent earthquakes in
northwestern Saudi Arabia, post received a request for a
visit to Saudi Arabia by experts from the United States
Geological Survey (USGS),to be funded at SAG expense, in
order to assist in analyzing data collected by Saudi
Geological Survey (SGS) officials. See Action Request
details para 6. While SAG took precautions last week to
evacuate more than 30,000 residents, SGS sees small risk of
imminent volcanic eruption or danger to civilian population
or Yanbu industrial infrastructure. However, concern was
flagged about structural soundness of residential buildings.
END SUMMARY.


2. (U) MAGMA MOVEMENT -- NO IMMINENT VOLCANIC ERUPTION: In
May 26 meeting on recent earthquakes in Saudi Arabia
(reftel),Dr. Zuhair Nawab, President of the Saudi Geological
Society (SGS),told Pol/Econoff that the minor earthquakes
which occurred last week in the northwestern part of the
Kingdom were a direct result of the movement of magma (molten
or partially molten rock) around the Al-Ais volcano. Nawab
said these were "not major quakes" and a volcanic eruption is
not necessarily imminent, contrary to claims of some
journalists and bloggers. Blogs have reported that magma has
moved from 8 kilometers beneath the ground surface to 4
kilometers; however, Dr. Nawab says the actual range of magma
movement has been from 10 to 7 kilometers, with the level
fluctuating within the latter range. He added that, contrary
to reports, the Saudi Geological Society has received no
credible verification of emissions of gas and vapor from the
earth.

3. (U) EVACUATIONS A PRECAUTION: Nawab emphasized that even
though the recent earthquakes were minor with no casualties,
the Saudi Arabian Government recommended that residents
living in the affected areas evacuate temporarily to ensure
their safety. He conceded that much of the housing in the
area may not be earthquake resistant, with some buildings
constructed of mud without reinforcing steel. Although he
did not provide exact figures, Nawab estimated that more than
30,000 residents were moved from Al-Ais to other parts of
western Saudi Arabia. He added that SAG covered all expenses
related to relocation, including housing and food.

4. (U) LOW OVERALL DANGER LEVEL BUT HOUSING A WORRY: With
regard to the effect of a volcanic eruption on the
population, Nawab stated that he did not believe an eruption
would cause much damage since the nearest town to the volcano
is 18 kilometers away. According to his estimates, a
volcanic eruption could possibly shoot volcanic ash 500
meters into the atmosphere and 2 kilometers away, with
prevailing winds carrying the ash approximately 10
kilometers. As for rocks, known as "volcanic bombs,"
sometimes projected during an eruption, Nawab estimated that
such projectiles could travel as high as 50 meters over a
distance of probably not more than 100-200 meters. Nawab
indicated that he is mainly worried about the effect of
future earthquakes in the Al-Ais region on buildings and
housing which may not be structurally sound. While he
stressed that the rise in the magnitude of recent earthquakes
(3.0 to 5.9 on the Richter scale) is "somewhat alarming," he
noted that not even experts can truly predict whether the
magnitude of the earthquakes will rise or fall.

5. (U) NO CURRENT DANGER TO YANBU INDUSTRY: With regard to
the effect on industrial infrastructure, Nawab stated
categorically that there is currently no threat. Authorities
from the nearby Yanbu Industrial City, which contains the
Royal Commission, King Fahad Industrial Port, Yanpet
Petrochemical Plant, Yanbu Industrial College and other
facilities, have asked whether their complex might be
endangered. Nawab said he assured officials that as long as
the earthquakes remained at or near current levels, there was
no danger. However, he noted that Yanbu officials have begun
to install their own meters and gauges to detect seismic
movement.

6. (U) ACTION REQUEST: Dr. Nawab asked the Consulate to
arrange for a 2-4 week visit to Saudi Arabia of "one or two
US experts" from the US Geological Survey in order to review
the seismic data the Saudi Geological Society has collected
and to assist with analysis. SAG will pay all travel costs
and accommodation. Post recommends an early response to this

JEDDAH 00000190 002.2 OF 002


request and asks NEA/ARP to provide appropriate USGS contact.
POC at ConGen Jeddah will be Pol/Econ officer Munir Madyun,
MadyunMM@state.gov; tel. 966-2-667-0080, ext. 4042, mobile
966-50-559-2715.
QUINN