STAGE SEEMS SET FOR THREE-WAY RACE FOR PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000779

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DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2019
TAGS: PGOV PDEM ID
SUBJECT: STAGE SEEMS SET FOR THREE-WAY RACE FOR PRESIDENT

REF: A. JAKARTA/POL:HARSHA - OPS CENTER 05/02/09 EMAIL

B. JAKARTA 775

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: VP Jusuf Kalla on May 1 announced that
Wiranto (one name only),a former general and leader of the
Hanura Party, will run with him in the July presidential
election. This lackluster partnership has little chance of
winning and many in Kalla's Golkar Party do not support it.
With this news, the stage seems set for a three-way
presidential contest involving President Yudhoyono, former
president Megawati and Kalla. Yudhoyono remains in a
commanding position to win in July. Speculation is spiking
re whom Yudhoyono might pick as his VP running mate with new
names emerging as the flavors of the day. END SUMMARY.

MAY 1 ANNOUNCEMENT


2. (SBU) Spurned by President Yudhoyono who did not want him
as his running mate again, Kalla has turned elsewhere. On
May 1, VP Kalla teamed up with Hanura Party founder and
controversial former armed forces chief Wiranto in a run for
president. In April national legislative elections, Golkar
garnered a projected 14-15% of the vote and Hanura 3-4%,
while three smaller parties in this coalition got about 3%,
giving this ticket just enough votes to meet the 20%
threshold needed to field a candidate under Indonesia's
complicated election rules.


3. (SBU) VP candidate Wiranto ran for president on the
Golkar ticket in 2004, coming in last place in the first
round with only 22% of the vote, and behind Yudhoyono and
then president Megawati Sukarnoputri. No one got over 50% of
the vote in the first round in 2004, setting up a second
round in which Yudhoyono trounced Megawati.


4. (C) Kalla and Wiranto also announced that their parties
have formed a coalition with former president Megawati's
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) plus the
Gerindra Party and other smaller parties to form an
opposition bloc in the next Parliament. PDI-P would still
field Megawati in the presidential election this July, thus
creating a three-way race. However, according to observers,
if Kalla does poorly and Yudhoyono does well in July, Golkar
likely would try to realign itself with PD in order to be
part of a governing coalition.

GOLKAR IN-FIGHTING CONTINUES


5. (C) The Kalla-Wiranto ticket is not yet settled. A
powerful faction of former Golkar elites and local Golkar
chapter heads are working behind the scenes to force another
Golkar Central Board or plenary to bring Golkar back into the
fold with President Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat (PD),senior
Golkar MP Marsuki Darusman told DepPol/C on May 4. This
effort is supported by Parliamentary Speaker Agung Laksono,
former Golkar Chair Akbar Tandjung, and People's Welfare
Minister Aburizal Bakrie, as well as 24 Provincial Golkar
captains and hundreds of sub-district leaders, Marsuki said.
These Golkar leaders are worried that the party will be
forced into the opposition at the national and local levels,
a position which does not suit the stodgy Suharto-era ruling
party.

YUDHOYONO BIDES HIS TIME


6. (SBU) Amid all this jockeying, Yudhoyono maintains the
upper hand. April polls reveal that 50% of the people would
vote for him as president, compared to 14% for Megawati and
only 6% for Jusuf Kalla. Wiranto polled at only 1.6% as a
presidential candidate. Megawati's likely VP candidate,
Gerindra Party head Prabowo Subianto, polled at under 6%. In
addition, the current PD political party coalition has 48% of
the legislative vote, followed by 21% each for the
Kalla-Wiranto and the probable Megawati-Prabowo coalitions.

SPECULATION SPIKES RE PRESIDENT'S RUNNING MATE


7. (C) Yudhoyono said on May 3 that he has chosen a VP
candidate among the 19 persons on his short list. He has
said he will wait until the week of May 10-16 before
announcing his pick. It is not to his advantage to reveal
his hand just yet. By focusing on governing and keeping his
opponents offguard, Yudhoyono is exuding an air of confident
leadership while the other parties flounder around forming
coalitions. While they are squandering their resources

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seeking alliances, Yudhoyono is campaigning.


8. (C) Speculation re whom Yudhoyono favors for his VP
running mate is changing daily. Observers agree that he is
looking for someone who is loyal and capable, from outside
Java Island (in order to provide balance with the Javanese
president),and ideally a technocrat (Ref B). One
well-placed source told the DCM that Yudhoyono would like
someone too old to succeed him in five years so that he can
hand-pick a younger successor to carry on his legacy.


9. (C) In the latest speculation, current State Secretary
Hatta Rajasa of National Mandate Party (PAN) remains a
serious contender. PAN decided at a May 2 National
Leadership Meeting to team up with PD and offered up Rajasa
as the VP candidate. However, Rajasa's stock might have
fallen because PAN was divided on its decision to support
Yudhoyono, with PAN Chair Soetrisno Bachir signaling his
preference for someone else.


10. (C) In recent days, Central Bank Chair Boediyono (one
name only) has emerged as a leading contender. He brings no
political party support but could help run the economy and
brings a high degree of professionalism. Yudhoyono also is
said to favor Boediyono because he is too old to succeed him
in 2014. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati is another
respected technocrat who is in the running. Because
Yudhoyono is so popular himself, he does not need a popular
running mate to win, just someone who will not detract from
his support.


11. (C) However, the Islamic-based Prosperous Justice Party
(PKS),an important part of the likely Yudhoyono coalition,
has rejected both Boediyono and Mulyani as too liberal and
pro-Western, one informed source told the DCM. PKS
threatened to walk away from PD if either of these two are
chosen. PKS instead is supporting a bright, young deputy
chair of the upper house of Parliament, Irman Gusman, from
West Sumatra. He has Islamic credentials as a leader of the
Association of Young Muslim Leaders (ICMI) and of the mass
organization Muhammadiyah, as well as academic credentials
with an MBA from University of Bridgeport, Connecticut.
Yudhoyono's wife Ani, known to be the President's most
trusted advisor, also supports Gusman, according to this
source.


12. (C) Finally, the dissident Golkar faction is still
hoping to undermine Kalla's bid and reunite with Yudhoyono.
Yudhoyono also has not closed off this possibility. Among
Golkar VP contenders, Yudhoyono favors Aburizal Bakrie,
Marsuki told us. Bakrie is a wealthy businessman who
bankrolled Yudhoyono's last presidential bid. Former Golkar
Chair Akbar Tandjung and Parliamentary Speaker Agung Laksono
are the other two on Golkar's shortlist.
HUME