PAPUA -- ELECTION CAMPAIGN PROCEEDS SMOOTHLY, SO

C O N F I D E N T I A L JAKARTA 001116

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/ANP, EAP/RSP, DRL
NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: PAPUA -- ELECTION CAMPAIGN PROCEEDS SMOOTHLY, SO
FAR

REF: JAKARTA 687 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Presidential campaigning continues--so far
without incident--in eastern Indonesia's restive Papua and
West Papua provinces. President Yudhoyono--as he does
nationally--maintains a significant lead in the region
although Jusuf Kalla's Golkar Party remains strong. The
police and military are maintaining neutrality in a region
where there is distrust of the central authorities. Local
officials expect some minor logistical problems in the
sprawling region on election day. Mission plans to send an
officer to the region to observe the July 8 voting. END
SUMMARY.

QUIET, SO FAR


2. (C) Campaigning for Indonesia's July 8 presidential vote
continues in the restive Papua region of eastern Indonesia.
Police and military officials are maintaining a low-profile
but vigilant posture on security matters. Given lingering
Papuan resentment toward Jakarta, and the continued presence
of separatist groups, violence remains a possibility. (Note:
Per reftel, there was some violence during the timeframe of
the April parliamentary elections.)

PRESIDENT MAINTAINS LEAD


3. (C) As he does nationally, our contacts agree that
President Yudhoyono maintains a strong lead in Papua, largely
on the strength of his personal popularity there. (Note:
There are no reliable provincial-level opinion poll results
available.) Yudhoyono's anti-corruption stance and support
for the region's Special Autonomy Law have gone down well in
the region. SBY and his running mate Boediono (one name
only) have both held campaign events in Papua.


4. (C) Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat (PD) has also made
inroads in Papua. PD candidates captured four of the
region's thirteen legislative seats in April. Oceans and
Fisheries Minister Freddy Numberi, the most prominent
ethnic-Papuan politician on the national scene, has
campaigned extensively for PD and SBY in the region.

GOLKAR STILL STRONG


5. (C) Vice President Jusuf Kalla, who broke with Yudhoyono
to run on his own, remains in second place. Kalla's Golkar
party has long dominated Papuan politics and retains a strong
grass-roots organization in the region. (Note: Golkar
candidates took five legislative seats in April, giving it
the largest block of Papuan spots in the national
legislature. This, despite Golkar's slide nationally.)
However, Kalla lacks Yudhoyono's personal popularity among
Papuans. Golkar operatives in the region have attempted to
highlight Kalla's "outsider"--that is non-Javanese--status in
an effort to appeal to ethnic Papuans. (Note: An ethnic
Muslim Bugis, Kalla is the only non-Javanese among the six
presidential and vice presidential candidates.) Kalla has
also campaigned in the region.

LOGISTICAL PROBLEMS LIKELY


6. (C) While campaigning has remained peaceful, provincial
government officials told us they expect some minor
logistical problems. Chief among these will be the
difficulties of getting voting materials to the region's many
remote, mountainous locations. As it did during the
legislative elections, the military will provide logistical
support to election officials. None of our contacts expect
these difficulties to be so severe as to cast doubt on the
results (even if there are problems in Papua, the region is
lightly populated and voting there is unlikely to impact the
overall national race). As it did for the April
parliamentary elections, Mission will send an officer to
provincial capital Jayapura to observe the voting.

HUME