INDONESIA'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN ENTERS LAST LAP

C O N F I D E N T I A L JAKARTA 001099

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP
NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ID
SUBJECT: INDONESIA'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN ENTERS LAST LAP

REF: JAKARTA 1048 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: With just over a week to go before
Indonesia's presidential election, President Yudhoyono is
maintaining his sizable lead in the polls. Candidate debates
held last week were inconclusive. During a visit to Central
Java, Pol/C spoke to numerous observers who predicted that
the President will easily win that vote-rich region. There
was a palpable lack of excitement over a campaign that has
had few fireworks, so far. Over all, commentators remain
split as to whether Yudhoyono has enough support to win over
50% of the national vote and thus obviate the need for a
September run-off. END SUMMARY.

PRESIDENT REMAINS IN THE LEAD


2. (C) Indonesia's presidential election is just oveQa week
away, taking place on July 8. Based on the latest polling,
President Yudhoyono remains solidly in the lead. A poll
published late last week contained the following results:

Candidate LSI

Yudhyono 67.2%
Megawati 15.8
Kalla 8.3
Undecided 8.7

LSI = Qdonesian Survey Institute


3. (SBU) Polls in Indonesia are not considered totally
reliable, though LSI is considered one of the better firms.
In any case, Yudhoyono--including in this most recent
poll--has maintained a large lead in almost all public
opinion surveys. That said, there have been a couple of
outliers that have shown that Yudhoyono has a much narrower
lead.

DEBATES INCONCLUSIVE, SO FAR


4. (C) The presidential and vice presidential debates do not
seem to be changing the dynamic. As reviewed in reftel, the
first presidential debate on June 18 was considered
inconclusive and markedly non-substantive, with none of the
three candidates gaining any sort of edge. This was also the
case with the second debate on June 25. While there were few
fireworks of any sort, the June 25 debate was considered a
bit more active and less boring than the first debate. In
general, commentators thought that Vice President Kalla
performed relatively well. Yudhoyono also did well in
defending his administration from criticism that it had not
done enough for the poor. Former president Megawati,
however, earned poor marks for not being on point. All in
all, nothing occurred that seemed to damage Yudhoyono and his
lead in any way. The third and final debate will take place
on July 2.


5. (SBU) In the meantime, the first of two vice presidential
debates took place on June 23 (the second is scheduled for
June 30). Prabowo Subianto, Megawati's running mate,
performed relatively strongly, speaking authoritatively
regarding the problem of poverty in Indonesia. Boediono (one
name only),Yudhoyono's running mate, discussed his
commitment to clean government. Prabowo and Boediono also
spoke out strongly in favor of a secular Indonesia. Wiranto,
playing a bit of an Islamic card, underlined that religion
was vital for Indonesia as a "political-social ethic."


NOT A LOT OF EXCITEMENT IN CENTRAL JAVA


6. (C) During a recent visit, Pol/C did not notice a lot of
excitement about the race in Central Java, a highly
populated, vote-rich region. In Semarang--the capital of
Central Java--and in outside areas, Pol/C noticed only a few
posters and banners for the candidates, and there was little
sign of party mobilization in terms of rallies and marches.
Observers noted that there was little interest in a race that
had not produced much in the way of fireworks, acrimony or
give and take. Observers remarked that Yudhoyono--admired
for his steadiness and consistency--was doing extremely well
in the region. Megawati was only doing moderately well in a
region that was traditionally a stronghold of her party.
ONE ROUND OR TWO?


7. (C) The main question about the race remains whether
President Yudhoyono can land a knockout blow on July 8 and
wrap up the presidency that day. To do so, he needs to get
over 50% of the vote and thus obviate the need for a
September run-off. Commentators are divided as to whether he
can expect to accomplish this. The slight majority seem to
think that he can, but others say that--in a three person
race--it is too difficult to predict and he might not make
it.


8. (C) Indonesia has a high turnout rate, with about seven
out of ten registered voters usually turning up at the polls.
The lackluster nature of this campaign probably means no
records on that score will be set, however. In addition, the
President does not seem to be using the campaign as a means
to create any sort of mandate for change. He's way ahead in
the polls, and is largely playing to keep the lead and not
make mistakes. If he indeed wins, this might mean that
Indonesia is in for the same sort of moderate, sensible
government he has provided the past several years, but not
for any emphatic move toward reform.
HUME