SURPRISE TURKISH ELECTION RESULTS PUT SKEPTICAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ISTANBUL 000180

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV TU SOPN
SUBJECT: SURPRISE TURKISH ELECTION RESULTS PUT SKEPTICAL
EYE ON POLLING FIRMS

REF: 05 ANKARA 4888

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Consulate Istanbul and Embassy Ankara jointly authored this
cable.


1. (U) Summary: The relatively low support for the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the March 29 local
election caught many political watchers off-guard, which
calls into question the validity of public opinion surveys in
Turkey. Only one published poll * from A&G Research --
correctly calculated support for the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) below 40 percent for municipal
assemblies nationwide. While many Turkish firms fail to
employ best practices employed by established U.S. companies,
some Turkish firms are raising the bar. End Summary.

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Most Polls Were Wrong on Support for AKP
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2. (U) Most published polls overestimated public support for
the AKP in the lead-up to the March 29 local elections.
Polling companies generally forecasted support for the ruling
AKP significantly above -- outside the range of the survey,s
sampling error -- the actual support of 38.9 percent for
municipal assembly nationwide. Konda, a polling firm that
correctly forecasted the 2007 national elections results,
overshot support for AKP at 47.9 percent. Other firms had AKP
at 45.6 percent (Veritas) and 51.9 percent (Metropoll). Only
A&G correctly predicted support for AKP below 40 percent;
placing them at 39.8 percent.


3. (U) Many polling companies also over-predicted the margin
of victory for AKP in the mayoral contests in Istanbul and
Ankara. Metropoll and Veritas showed wide double digit
margins for the AKP candidate in each city, while the results
were much closer at 6-7 percentage points. Veritas widely
overestimated support for AKP in many other mayoral races,
wrongly calling the AKP candidate in nearly all its reported
surveys. Sonar Research also overshot support for AKP for
Ankara,s mayoral race. Even A&G overestimated support for
AKP in Istanbul, while underestimating support for the
party,s candidate in Ankara. While the polls correctly
called the winners of the four major races in the local
elections -- Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, and Diyarbakir -- the
wide, statistically significant gap between the actual result
and the predicted numbers argue against the general quality
of polling in Turkey.

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Common Polling Problems in Turkey
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4. (SBU) Statistical failures of this scale across a number
of polling companies suggest that polling methodology in
Turkey is weak. Past reporting questioned the quality of
Turkish polling, particularly Anar Research and Pollmark;
however, one Turkish firm was found to use acceptable survey
methods ) Infakto Research (reftel). Emre Erdogan, Chairman
of Infakto told us his company deliberately does not conduct
many polls, focusing instead on conducting quality surveys.
State-INR, the Maryland based World Public Opinion, and the
International Republican Institute all have commissioned
Infakto to conduct polls in Turkey. Infakto does not do
polling for political parties, though it occasionally has
done work for individual candidates.


5. (SBU) Emre Erdogan, who trained under prominent Turkish
survey research academics Ersin Kalaycioglu and Ali Carkoglu,
criticized many pollsters for only operating in an election
year. These firms often hire inexperienced temporary
interviewers. In addition, many firms do not spend resources
for quality control and there is little accountability for
producing erroneous results, according to Erdogan.


6. (SBU) Another typical mistake most Turkish polling firms
commit is the use of quota sampling for achieving
predetermined targets for the proportion of certain sectors
of Turkish society. While this can be an acceptable method,
it assumes the polling firm has a perfect understanding of
the demographics of Turkish society to set the quota. This
is a dubious assumption, given that the Turkish state itself
only discovered last year that it had underestimated the
number of Turkish voters by several million people. One

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exception was A&G Research; Chairman Adil Gur told us his
firm randomly picked its respondents, without setting out to
achieve certain numbers of target groups.


7. (SBU) How polling firms manipulate the data is another
source of error. The most common mistake is to drop the
undecided respondents in a survey, thus proportionally
increasing the value of those who indicated support for a
party. This assumes undecided voters will act like decided
voters at the ballot box, an often erroneous assumption.
This mistake can severely distort the accuracy of the poll,
since undecided respondents can often account for 20-30
percent of a survey,s total respondents. Other methods of
data manipulation can add additional error to a survey; even
with the best intentions of the researcher, data weighting
can introduce inaccuracies if the fundamental assumptions on
which they are based are mistaken. The general lack of
transparency of most published polls in Turkey increases the
possibility that additional error entered the data after the
results were collected.


8. (SBU) Despite these problems the general consensus among
academics and industry leaders is that polling in Turkey has
improved over the past ten years. The growth of foreign
direct investment in Turkey has increased the demand for
quality survey research. Also, Turkish universities now
conduct classes in scientific survey research, compared to
the past where students needed to go abroad to learn these
methods, according to Emre Erdogan. He also stressed that
interviewers can ask more sensitive questions today than they
could five years ago.


9. (SBU) Still, there is a large gap in quality as some firms
continue to conduct shoddy or biased polls. Some industry
leaders that we talked with, including from Konda, A&G,
Genar, Anar, told us they strive to attain accurate results
by expending the resources needed to reach out to all the
regions of Turkey, including remote rural areas and poor
outer suburban areas surrounding major Turkish cities
(Varos). The above firms also hired Kurdish speaking
interviewers when conducting polls in predominately Kurdish
areas. However, many firms fail to go beyond the major
cities or do not strive to randomly select their respondents.



10. (SBU) Industry leaders and academics highlighted Konda
and A&G as two of the better polling firms in Turkey. Emre
Erdogan noted Konda used good methods and was not influenced
by politics. During the lead-up to the 2007 national
elections, Konda was criticized for producing results that
showed strong support for the ruling Justice and Development
Party (AKP). Konda,s data proved to be an accurate forecast
of the election, as most commentators were caught by surprise
by the level of AKP,s victory in 2007. The head of Genar
Research, M. Teyfik Goksu told us Konda and A&G both strive
to conduct sound polling without a political bias.

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Looking under the Hood at Konda and A&G
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11. (SBU) Chairman Agir Dir told us Konda has been conducting
scientific polls in Turkey for over two decades, following
methods used by American polling firms. His firm only
conducts face-to-face interviews by trained pollsters. Konda
does not focus its business on political polling; instead it
conducts numerous regular projects that include marketing and
social research. Konda conducted the most comprehensive
non-governmental survey of the Turkish people in 2007. The
poll, titled &Who are we?8 commissioned by Milliyet
newspaper, interviewed 47,000 people in 79 out of 81
provinces in Turkey to gather social and ethnic information
on the Turkish people. Konda has since conducted subsequent
surveys in conjunction with Milliyet on topics such as
religion and ethnicity, two extremely sensitive topics in
Turkey. Agirdir told us these surveys could not had been
conducted five years ago, noting that Turks are now able to
talk more openly on these issues. (NOTE: Some Infakto
interviewers conducting a poll regarding Armenian issues were
detained by security forces in Eastern Anatolia in 2004. END
NOTE.)



12. (SBU) Adil Gur, Chairman of A&G, told us his company

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strives to produce accurate polls because &reputation is the
greatest currency for a polling company.8 He stressed A&G
does not conduct polling for political parties, noting many
foreign investment banks commission surveys with his firm.
Gur said his firm only conducts face-to-face polling, arguing
that telephone polling fails to get a random sample. Gur also
stresses that, for national election polling, his firm uses
only trained interviewers that go out to all 81 provinces.
Also, he insisted he used Kurdish speaking interviewers in
the southeast; however, these people cannot have connections
with either AKP or the pro-Kurdish (DTP).

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Other polling Companies
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13. (U) Other polling companies have not used proper methods
and this has affected their ability to forecast election
results. For example, Metropoll poorly estimated support for
AKP in the 2007 election and the 2009 local election; its
latest data showed AKP getting nearly 52 percent of the
nationwide vote, 14 percentage points over the actual vote.
Metropoll uses telephone polling, a questionable means to
achieve randomness because hard line telephone penetration is
relatively low in the eastern provinces, according to many
polling experts in Turkey. Most other firms opted to conduct
the more expensive face-to-face polling for that reason.
Furthermore, Metropoll refuses to employ Kurdish speaking
interviewers; according to chairman Sencar, Kurdish speakers
are unreliable since they are &politically biased8.
Reporting from 2005 also found Metropoll,s survey
methodology questionable (reftel).


14. (SBU) Some polling companies appear to be politically
motivated, publishing favorable results in likeminded
newspapers. On the final day allowed by law to report
opinion polls before the March 2009 election, the Fethullah
Gulen supported newspaper, Zaman published a massive poll
conducted by VERITAS research, predicting a &crushing
victory8 for AKP. This poll uniformly overestimated support
for AKP in 16 mayoral contests as well as the overall
national vote.


15. (SBU) Other polling firms also have clear political
sympathies, but their numbers do not always fall according to
their prejudices. Sonar research Chairman A. Hakan Bayrakci
told us he does not like AKP or Saadet Party (SP) and does
not accept commission polls for them because he views them as
parties with a demonstrated religious agenda. Sonar,s
results before the 2009 local elections were a voice among
many other firms that overshot support for AKP. Sonar did
underestimate support for AKP in the 2007 national elections,
however, Bayrakci failed to provide details of Sonar,s
polling methods, despite our questions on the subject.


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Polling Companies with Ties to AKP
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16 (SBU) A number of polling firms have close ties with the
ruling AKP and/or Prime Minister Erdogan. Both Emre Erdogan
and the press reported the Prime Minister has commissioned
polls from Ankara Social Research Center (Anar),Pollmark,
Denge Research, and Genar. Anar has a long history with the
AKP: Interior Minister Besir Atalay used to be Anar,s
chairman before entering politics; the current chairman,
Erdogan Uslu, has served as an AKP advisor; and Uslu used to
share an office in Anar with current President and former AKP
PM Abdullah Gul (reftel). Emre Erdogan and the press also
reported that Denge,s Chairman, Hasan Basri Yildiz, is the
Prime Minister,s cousin. Genar Chairman M. Teyfik Goksu
successfully ran as the AKP candidate for mayor for the
Istanbul district of Esenler in the local elections.
According to Emre Erdogan, Pollmark is close to the AKP
leadership. He told us the Prime Minister refuses to use
Metropoll ) despite the more religious attitude of the firm
-- because Metropoll,s founding members left Pollmark to
establish their own completing company. (COMMENT: Despite
these firms, ties to AKP, it is unclear if they bias their
results in favor of the ruling party. Pollmark, Denge, and
Genar, all underestimated support for AKP in their published
results before the 2007 national elections. END COMMMENT.)


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The opposition,s ambivalence towards polling
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17. (SBU) According to Metropoll Chairman Ozer Sencar, other
political parties have not shown much interest in using
polling data. CHP party chairman Baykal said on a televised
interview that he does not trust polls. Sencar told us
Baykal chooses candidates based on closeness to the party,
despite polling data showing alternative candidates with
greater popular appeal.


18. (SBU) Comment: Public opinion research has improved in
Turkey, yet poorly conducted polling results will continue to
flood Turkey,s sensationalistic newspapers. Reliable firms,
such as A&G and Konda, appear determined to improve their
methods and to start consistently providing accurate
forecasts. The demand for accurate poll results )
especially from international businesses -- will likely
increase accountability and thus standards for the industry.
Political parties that use polling as part of their campaign
strategy ) the ruling AKP, for example ) may benefit from
the increased quality of survey research. However, as a
governing party, AKP could also find itself unable to take
hard political decisions that run contrary to prevailing
public opinion.
Wiener