EUR/SE DEPUTY DIRECTOR BRINK IN ISTANBUL MEETINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISTANBUL 000017

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL TU EINV IR AA
SUBJECT: EUR/SE DEPUTY DIRECTOR BRINK IN ISTANBUL MEETINGS

REF: ISTANBUL 493

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Classified By: Consul General Sharon A. Wiener for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (U) Summary. On December 18, EUR/SE Deputy Director
Bridget Brink ended a week-long visit to Turkey by meeting
with officials of the Turkish business association MUSIAD,
the press relations officer of the Ecumenical Patriarchate,
and prominent newspaper columnists. The overall theme of the
conversations included how to re-energize U.S.-Turkish
relations. Brink suggested to both the business leaders and
the columnists that normalizing relations with Armenia would
be a positive step toward that end. Brink also emphasized to
the Ecumenical Patriarchate that the U.S. Government would
continue to press the Turkish Government to open the Halki
Seminary as an important part of our efforts to promote
religious freedom and human rights in Turkey. End summary.

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MUSIAD
--------------


2. (U) While MUSIAD representatives normally avoid
discussing with us politically-sensitive subjects, in this
meeting its chairman, Omer Vardan, was quite forthcoming with
opinions on Turkey's relationships with its neighbors, the
global economic crisis, and the AGR.


3. (U) Neighbors: According to Vardan, the policy of
"Strategic Depth" that Turkey's ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) began to implement several years ago
has resulted in greatly improved relations with Turkey's
neighbors. As proof, Vardan said, in the past several years
Turkey's exports to surrounding countries had increased from
36 billion USD to 136 billion USD. (Comment: This number
appears inflated. According to press reports, Trade Minister
Kursad Tuzmen recently announced that while Turkey's total
exports to all countries in 2008 had been projected to be 136
billion USD, the global economic crisis had reduced them to
131.4 billion USD. End Comment.) Many of MUSIAD's members
are currently working in Northern Iraq, and MUSIAD is
actively seeking to expand Turkey's involvement in the
reconstruction of Iraq.


4. (C) AGR: Brink noted the chances of passage of the AGR
this April may be higher, and urged MUSIAD to tell the GOT it
supports the normalization of relations with Armenia. Vardan
said while MUSIAD supports the GOT's dialog with Armenia,
there is also an "Azerbaijani angle" that needs to be
straightened out (i.e., Nagorno-Karabakh). Brink urged
Turkey not to link normalization to resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue, since Nagorno-Karabakh may not be
resolved before April. Vardan said it would be "very bad"
for relations if the AGR passed, and expressed the hope
(shared with us by other Turks and apparently widely-held)
that the support for AGR expressed by President-Elect Obama
during the campaign would not continue once he begins
governing and assesses the positives and negatives of such an
action. "We trust that the president can stop the AGR," he
said. Brink replied that the position that will be taken
will be up to the new administration but noted that Congress
is a separate but equal branch of government. Vardan said
MUSIAD would convey Brink's points to the "responsible
people."


5. (U) Economy: Vardan said Turkish business is
"suffering," with reductions of between 10 percent and 75
percent, depending on the sector. Vardan noted Turkey does
not have the structural difficulties of Europe or the U.S.,
since its banking system is "very sound" and there is little
consumer credit -- Turkish banks extend few home mortgages
and the average consumer credit card debt is but 30 percent
of yearly wages. (Comment: A quick Internet search indicates
that average U.S. family's credit card debt equals from five
to twelve percent of its annual income. End Comment.)
However, Vardan claimed Turkish businesses are experiencing
"major problems" in obtaining project financing from the
world markets, since most foreign banks are not lending.
Moreover, said Vardan, banks are calling loans "prematurely."
Vardan explained that, in Turkey, post-dated checks are a
common form of financing, and are freely negotiated and given
to banks as security. However, now banks are insisting on
cashing them, despite their future dating. (Comment: In
Turkey, unlike the U.S., a post-dated check remains a demand

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instrument, and is normally not cashed as a matter of custom;
however, a holder is under no obligation to observe this
custom.)

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Patriarchate
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6. (U) The Ecumenical Patriarchate's press relations
officer, Father Dositheos, opened his presentation with some
"good news": The GOT has advised the Patriarchate it will
begin issuing one year visas for non-Turkish clergy working
at the Patriarchate. Previously, foreign clergy had to
obtain tourist visas and exit the country for renewal every
three months. The GOT provided a list of clergy eligible for
the extended visas, and noted they must be working in the
Ecumenical Patriarchate to qualify. This "positive gesture"
comes after what Dositheos described as "five years of
struggle" with the GOT.


7. (U) Unfortunately, Father Dositheos continued, there had
been no progress on the Patriarchate's remaining problems
with the GOT:

-- The GOT recently advised the Patriarchate that reopening
Halki Seminary was "impossible," since Turkey is a secular
country and cannot have theological schools. (If this is
indeed the GOT's stance, it ignores the thousands of
imam-hatip religious secondary schools run by the GOT.) In
this communique the GOT supposedly renewed its offer to
establish a chair in Orthodox theology at a state university,
which the Patriarchate rejects. (Note: We subsequently
clarified that Father Dositheos was referring to press
reporting on a to date unreleased MFA report to the
parliament and not to any communique to the Ecumenical
Patriarchate. End note.)

-- The absence of legal status for the Patriarchate, making
it impossible for it to own property or have "economic
independence."

-- The refusal of the GOT to recognize the Patriarchate's
"ecumenical" status.

-- Repatriation of Patriarchate properties seized by the
state since the founding of the Republic. Father Dositheos
claimed that in 1913 the Patriarchate owned 11,000
properties, while today it owns but 500. While Father
Dositheos said this issue is "slowly being resolved," he
anticipates the need for further relief from the European
Court of Human Rights.

-- Synod Assemblies (Ref).


8. (C) Brink asked Father Dositheos how the U.S. could help.
He responded that direct political pressure "does not help."
Rather, he suggested two indirect means of providing
pressure:

-- Have American military generals convey to their Turkish
NATO counterparts the message that the Patriarchate is not a
danger to Turkey. (Father Dositheos believes the Turkish
military is the source of much of the opposition to the
Patriarchate. He said he has asked German NATO generals to
convey the same message.)

-- Have U.S. theology schools request Ministry of Education
permission to form a "partnership" with the Halki Seminary.
This will show that the Seminary is important to Americans.


9. Brink said she would take these ideas back to Washington
and stressed that the U.S. would continue to do all it could
to support the reopening of Halki.

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Columnists
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10. (C) At a luncheon hosted by the Consul General, Brink
met with Abdulhamit Bilici (of Zaman newspaper),Rusen Cakir
(Vatan),Sami Kohen (Milliyet) and Etyen Mahcupyan (Agos).
The AGR was again a major topic of conversation, with the
Consul General and Brink reprising the points made to MUSIAD,
including the importance of concluding a normalization
agreement with Armenia. The Turkish guests suggested Turkey

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would be an ideal location for President-Elect Obama to give
his promised speech in a Muslim capital, particularly if the
AGR passed, since the speech could then be used to move the
issue forward. Also, the columnists noted the widespread
public perception that the U.S. is still not doing enough
with respect to the PKK. The CG and Brink pointed to the
change in policy after PM Erdogan's November 2007 visit to
Washington including the start of intelligence sharing with
Turkey as historic and significant cooperation, which some
believe is not acknowledged enough publicly in Turkey.
Wiener