GILANI DECLARES WAR IN SWAT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000991

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2019
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PREF PHUM PK
SUBJECT: GILANI DECLARES WAR IN SWAT

REF: PESHAWAR 97

Classified By: CDA Gerald Feierstein for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: On May 7 in a landmark television and radio
address to the nation, Prime Minister Gilani made an
impassioned plea to Pakistanis to support decisive military
action against the Taliban in Swat and surrounding areas.
All political parties except Imran Khan's and the
Jamaat-e-Islami supported the PM's call for military action;
of note, Pakistan Muslim League-N leader Nawaz Sharif
reportedly will offer in a televised interview tonight
"unanimous" support to the GOP in this fight. Chief of Army
Staff Kayani has pledged all available resources to crush the
Taliban; aerial and artillery bombardment of Swat reportedly
has begun. See septel for a more complete analysis of how we
expect the Swat operation to unfold, but post believes that
the Pakistan army quickly will become bogged down in Swat,
where inevitably high civilian causalities will undermine
nascent popular support for military action.


2. (C) In meetings organized by the UN today, there was
agreement that the IDP population could swell to 1.3 million
over at least the next six months; current WFP food stocks
are sufficient to feed 600,000 for three months so we need
urgently to press the UN to deploy an expanded, long-term
humanitarian team to Pakistan (septel). Charge is writing to
PM Gilani to urge that he announce soonest the appointment of
a GOP coordinator for IDPs and that the GOP make its own
urgent plea to the UN for humanitarian aid. See septel for
an update on USG responses to the Pakistani's requests for
military assistance. End summary.

GILANI CALLS FOR WAR AGAINST TALIBAN
--------------


3. (SBU) On May 7 in a televised address to the nation,
Prime Minister Gilani announced the GOP was ordering the
military to take decisive action against the Taliban in Swat.
In what was a landmark call to war, Gilani assured the
nation that there would be no compromise on national
sovereignty and no surrender to the Taliban. An impassioned
Gilani said that his government had tried all possible
options to resolve the issue peacefully and had even
implemented shari'a law in the restive regions surrounding
Swat. Gilani said that the GOP's efforts were perceived as a
sign of weakness, and he detailed the Taliban's violations of
the deal, stressing the barbarism and aggression against
innocent civilians, female students, minorities, and citizens
who cooperated with the security forces.


4. (SBU) Gilani noted that the call for decisive force was
made only after careful contemplation and complete consensus
from all political parties and democratic institutions. He
called for all segments of Pakistani society to unite in
their support of the Pakistani Armed Forces. He also called
upon religious scholars and spiritual leaders to present the
true image of Islam and the fact there is no room for
oppression or coercion in Islam. Gilani mentioned that one
billion RS (12.4 million USD) are being provided for the
rehabilitation and welfare of Internally Displaced Persons
(IDP),and he promised jobs to a member of each family that
has lost one of its members at the hand of the militants.

KAYANI AND ZARDARI VOW TO TAKE DECISIVE ACTION
-------------- --


5. (SBU) On May 7, Chief of Army Staff Ashfaq Kayani
chaired a corps commanders conference where he vowed to
secure a decisive victory over the Taliban, echoing Gilani's
call later that day to eliminate the terrorists once and for
all. Kayani promised to mobilize all available resources to
crush the Taliban. According to press reports, Kayani also
said that the army was fully aware of the gravity of the
internal threat. The COAS explained, "the army has developed
full-scale facilities to focus on low intensity conflict
related operations," adding that the military was fully
prepared to meet conventional threats as well. Kayani also
called for the cooperation of all elements of national power
to fight terrorism and extremism. The Corps Commanders were
also given a comprehensive briefing on the security situation
in Swat and surrounding areas.

ISLAMABAD 00000991 002 OF 003




6. (SBU) On May 7, President Zardari told reporters in
Washington that the military operation against the Taliban
would last until "normalcy" returned to the troubled areas.
He spoke after Prime Minister Gilani's address to the nation
and promised that the military would not stop until peace
returned to Swat.

POLITICAL PARTIES SUPPORT MILITARY OPERATIONS
-------------- -


7. (SBU) The majority of political parties have voiced
their wholehearted support for the GOP's decision to launch a
full-scale military operation in Swat and Malakand Division.
Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and Imran Khan's
right-wing Pakistani Tehreek Insaaf (PTI) were the only two
parties to oppose military action. The JI said that while
they oppose the Taliban, they want a political solution to
the problem. JI leader Liaquat Baloch criticized the
decision to take military action and said that the civilian
government's inability to find a political solution and
calling in the army was the government's failure. Imran Khan
doomed the military operation to failure because the GOP had
not enlisted the support of the Pakistani people. Besides
these marginal voices, every political party came out in
support of Gilani's speech. Many major Pakistani newspapers
and television commentators congratulated the Prime Minister
for finally taking a strong stance against the Taliban.


8. (C) Nawaz Sharif, chief of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N),reportedly will say in a televised interview tonight
that he is ready to support the government unconditionally
because of the grave crisis facing Pakistan. Siddiqul
Farooq, PML-N spokesperson, said that his party would extend
all cooperation for the success of democracy and the security
of Pakistan. Various Pakistan People's Party leaders have
told Emboffs that no decisive action against the Taliban
would be politically viable without PML-N support.


9. (C) The Awami National Party (ANP),which leads the
Northwest Frontier Province government that signed the Swat
accord, welcomed Gilani's remarks and military action. ANP's
Senator Haji Adeel said the government took the decision
after fully exhausting all options for peaceful solutions.
Senator Zahid Khan, ANP's information secretary, termed the
PM's speech as strong and positive. He told Poloff it is the
first of its kind by this government. Khan also said that
the PM had listened to a delegation of parliamentarians from
Swat and incorporated their advice into his speech. The SWAT
delegation supported Gilani's call for military action, and
had shared that Swat citizens were disillusioned with the
untrustworthy TNSM leader Sufi Muhammad.


10. (SBU) Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) leader Altaf
Hussain lauded the decision of sending Pakistani troops into
Swat and blamed the militants for not adhering the agreement.
The MQM has always opposed the deal with the Swat militants.


NWFP LOOKING FOR RESULTS
--------------


11. (C) Popular reaction to Gilani's speech in the Northwest
Frontier Province (NWFP) was positive but guarded. Virtually
all contacts conditioned their support for a renewed military
operations on the Pakistani government's seriousness of
intent in truly pursuing the operation through to completion,
and most also conditioned their support on the avoidance of
collateral damage. The ANP Law Minister privately told the
Consulate that "if the federal government is serious this
time," the ANP would give their full support. ANP Provincial
Assembly member Dr. Haider Ali, from Swat's militant-heavy
Khawazakhela region, said that Swat locals were "fed up" and
would support the government "if assured of minimal
collateral damage." The Vice-Chancellor of Malakand
University (in Swat) echoed this assessment of the feelings
of Swatis, demanding a "real surgical operation" - not a
"very superficial operation" as in 2007-8. Several contacts
mentioned the plight of the IDPs; a PPP-Sherpao Provincial
Assembly member characterized Gilani's promised one billion
RS for IDPs as "far too low."


ISLAMABAD 00000991 003 OF 003


CURRENT PAK MIL ACTIONS IN SWAT
--------------


12. (SBU) Military operations continued in Buner, with the
focus on securing the main city of Daggar and the areas to
the north, with a a plan to seal the passes into Swat
District. Although a small number of IDPs are returning to
southern Buner, the operations in the northern half have
resulted in further population displacement. The
reinstatement of the tribal lashkars has been successful in
holding some areas of the northern border of Buner near Swat.
In Lower Dir, small operations continue, and the Air Force
is targeting homes of militant commanders.


13. (SBU) In Swat, operations have started with mostly
aerial bombing and the arrival of ground troops. In order to
assist with these operations, forces are being sent from
Buner, Bajaur, Mohmand, and Shangla, leaving few pockets of
FC to maintain order in these areas. (Note: the military is
the lead on the ground in Swat with some FC support. End
note.) The Special Services Group is working with command
and control elements on the ground, which is a new
development in the methods the military uses to conduct
operations.


14. (C) Within the next 72 hours, aerial and artillery
assaults will continue in Swat to prepare areas for ground
action. Eventually five military battalions will be sent to
conduct ground operations in Swat (1 battalion = 500
soldiers).


15. (S) Comment: SOC-FWD Commander anticipates the Pakistani
military will very likely become bogged down in Swat. This
will put pressure on the ANP-led provincial government to
seek yet another peace agreement with the militants to save
face.


16. (C) Comment continued: For now, many Pakistanis are
welcoming the long-overdue expression of resolve by the GOP
to fight the Taliban. If Nawaz Sharif truly backs the
government unconditionally, this will provide some
much-needed political cover for the PPP to support military
operations. But the PM's hasty and unannounced 11 pm speech
(with virtually no orchestrated follow-up this morning)
demonstrates that they still have no strategic communications
strategy to win and keep hearts and minds. As civilian
casualties mount in what we expect will be a messy and
protracted campaign in Swat, it will be increasingly
difficult to sustain as yet nascent popular support for army
action. Without a speedy and effective response to what is
shaping up as a serious and sustained IDP crisis, images of
suffering IDPs will undermine the GOP's counter-insurgency
efforts. End comment.
FEIERSTEIN