MEET THE GOVERNOR-IN-WAITING: ANWAR SAIFULLAH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000943

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PK
SUBJECT: MEET THE GOVERNOR-IN-WAITING: ANWAR SAIFULLAH

Classified By: CDA Gerald M. Feierstein, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Senator Anwar
Saifullah has accepted President Zardari's request that he
serve as the new Governor of the Northwest Frontier Province
(NWFP). Saifullah is ready to take up his duties
immediately, but completion of his appointment has been
delayed by opposition from Awami National Party (ANP) chief
Asfandyar Wali Khan. Saifullah attributes Asfandyar's
opposition to concerns that Saifullah will undermine ANP
Chief Minister Amir Haider Khan Hoti, which Saifullah terms
baseless. Although the appointment of governors is the sole
prerogative of the President in the Pakistani system, Zardari
is reluctant to proceed with Saifullah's nomination in the
absence of ANP concurrence. Saifullah requested U.S. (and
probably UK) support in urging Asfandyar to agree. End
Summary.


2. (C) At a farewell dinner for the outgoing Saudi Ambassador
hosted by Frontier grande dame Begum Kulsoom Saifullah, her
son Anwar, a PPP Senator from the NWFP, pulled aside the
Charge to confirm that he had been approached by President
Zardari to take the position of Governor of the NWFP and he
had agreed. Finalization of his appointment is being held
up, however, by opposition from ANP chief Asfandyar Wali
Khan. Anwar assessed that Asfandyar's opposition comes, in
part, from concern that he didn't want to see the powerful
Saifullah family occupying a position of prominence in the
Frontier government. But the main cause of Asfandyar's
reluctance to agree to the appointment, according to Anwar,
is concern that Anwar will use his position to undermine the
ANP Frontier government led by Chief Minister Amir Haider
Khan Hoti, who is also Asfandyar's nephew. Anwar asserted
repeatedly that Asfandyar's concerns are baseless. He has a
good relationship with Hoti, he said, and could assure the
ANP that, as Governor, he would ensure that Hoti would
complete his full five-year tenure as Chief Minister.
Indeed, Anwar asserted, the biggest obstacle to Hoti's tenure
comes from the interference of his father, former federal
Minister Azam Khan Hoti, and his Uncle Asfandyar. "They
won't let him do anything," Anwar complained, "they won't let
him work."


3. (C) Seeking to explain his decision to accept Zardari's
offer (which appears to have caused some friction in the
family; brothers Salim and Humayun ) both Pakistan Muslim
League (PML) stalwarts ) told Charge they were unhappy with
Anwar's decision) Anwar said that he was motivated by a sense
that the Frontier is at a crossroads and that he and people
like him must act now to influence the course of affairs or
lose the opportunity forever. Vaguely criticizing current
Governor Owais Ghani for not traveling to the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) or leaving the governor's
mansion, Anwar said that the Pukhtuns must have regular
contact with their leaders if they are asked to follow them.
Anwar noted that he has been involved for a long time in the
affairs of North and South Waziristan from the family's base
in nearby Lakki Marwat. As Governor, Anwar said, he would
travel immediately to Waziristan and spend the night to rally
the troops and tribals loyal to the government. Anwar noted
that a similar hands-on strategy had thus far kept Lakki
Marwat from falling into the hands of extremist elements.
Anwar declared that he would only continue in office as
Governor for as long as he believed that he was making a
contribution. Charge took advantage of the opportunity to
lay out for Anwar in some detail the U.S. strategy for
supporting the federal and provincial governments in the
current campaign to clear militants from the area, as well as
to build effective law enforcement capacity and to address
both immediate humanitarian requirements and long-term
development needs. Anwar said that he wants to work closely
with us on all of these issues.


4. (C) Turning to the political problem of reconciling the
ANP to his appointment, Anwar said that Zardari had made
clear that, although he alone has the power to appoint
provincial governors, he would prefer not to do so over the
opposition of the ANP. (Zardari did tell Anwar that he had
appointed Salman Taseer as Governor of the Punjab without
consulting the Pakistan Muslim League ) Nawaz (PML-N),but
that's probably not the model Anwar would like to emulate.)
Zardari has asked Anwar to take the lead in gaining ANP
acquiescence to his appointment. Anwar is working on the
problem, but he asked if the U.S. could also put in a good

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word on his behalf with Asfandyar. He noted that he had
approached the British High Commissioner separately with a
similar request.


5. (C) Comment: The Saifullah's political and economic roots
in the Frontier go back for decades and three of the five
brothers have been involved in elective office throughout
their adult lives. (A fourth brother, Javaid, is a leading
Frontier businessman.) Anwar's appointment would thus bring
to the governor's mansion probably the most prominent,
independent political figure to have ever occupied the
office. It may be that his very prominence is what the ANP
and Asfandyar Wali find so unsettling about the prospect.
Nevertheless, Anwar does offer the possibility of raising
considerably the profile of the Governor's office,
communicating more effectively with the people, and offering
a rallying point for the government, the military, and
moderate Frontier and FATA elements.


6. (C) Comment Continued: The pressure to replace Ghani (a
Musharraf appointment) has been building since Zardari became
President. ANP Senator Afrasiab Khattak told Peshawar PO
recently that Azam Khan, a former Chief Secretary of the
NWFP, remains the ANP's preferred candidate for Governor.
Azam Khan is a well-respected bureaucrat from Charsadda, but
he lacks a political background or field experience in the
tribal areas. It is also unclear whether he has the right
connections to manage the military. Azam Khan would also be
less likely to overshadow the provincial ANP leadership.
Many in the Peshawar establishment are chattering that ANP
has been a "disaster" for governance of the province because
of the handling of Swat. There is talk that Asfandyar Wali
Khan's standing has fallen in the province because of the
perception that he "ran away" after the suicide attack at his
home in Charsadda in October 2008. Some in Peshawar circles
have begun to remark on the need for a "strong" Governor.
ANP is undoubtedly aware of these comments and is unlikely to
accept any assurances from Saifullah that he is not out to
upstage Chief Minister Hoti. We will make clear to Asfandyar
Wali Khan that we believe Anwar Saifullah would be a good
choice for NWFP Governor, but will take precautions to lessen
the prospects of getting in the middle of what could become a
nasty fight between PPP and ANP on the selection of the next
Governor.
FEIERSTEIN