UPDATE ON CONDITIONS IN MALAKAND DIVISION: DIR,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000901

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREL PTER
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON CONDITIONS IN MALAKAND DIVISION: DIR,
BUNER, SWAT

REF: A. ISLAMABAD 887

B. PESHAWAR 75

Classified By: CDA Gerald Feierstein for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary. In operations in Lower Dir District (Malakand
Division, Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP)) on April 27,
Frontier Corps/Army reportedly killed over 70 militants,
including two major taliban commanders, and regained control
over the Maidan valley. UN organizations report that the
displacement from these operations in Lower Dir have now
reached between 20,000 and 40,000 individuals. In response
to the Dir operations, Tehreek-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi
(TNSM) announced a suspension in talks with the NWFP
Government until the operations ceased, claiming that the
operations violated the Swat peace agreement. Conditions in
Swat continue to deteriorate as militants have established
blockades around Mingora, are patrolling roads, and have
increased the kidnapping of police and other local officials.
Military action has begun in Buner District on April 28 in
the face of the recent decision by the Buner jirga denouncing
all military intervention. The Inter Services Public
Relations (ISPR),the Pakistan Military's press bureau, held
a press conference on April 28 announcing their initial
operational plans in Buner and to outline their successes in
Dir. End Summary


2. (SBU) Background: Malakand Division includes the
districts of Upper and Lower Dir, Swat, Malakand, Mardan,
Swabi, Buner, and Shangla. Although the designation of
"division" was removed by former President Musharraf in the
Local Governance Act, the term is still commonly used by the
public at large. According to the taliban and TNSM, all of
Malakand is subject to the Swat peace agreement and the
Nizam-e-Adl.

DIR UPDATE
--------------


3. (SBU) On April 28, the Inter Services Public Relations
(ISPR),Pakistan Military's press bureau, held a press
conference outlining their succcesses in their two-day
operations in Lower Dir District. Reportedly, these successes
included the killing of over 70 militants, including two
major taliban commanders, and the regaining control of the
Maidan valley. Post contacts report that operations in Lower
Dir slowed as shelling continued on April 28 on militant
strongholds in villages around the Maidan valley. There were
also reports that militants were stopping and searching
vehicles on the road between Chakdarra and Ouch tehsils
though it is not clear this was a systematic effort.


4. (SBU) Following the Pakistan military operations in Lower
Dir District on April 27, the
Tehreek-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) announced a
suspension in talks with the NWFP Government until the
operations ceased, claiming that the operations violated the
Swat peace agreement. TNSM spokesman Amir Izzat Khan said
that talks will resume once the military/security operations
cease. However, Muslim Khan, spokesman for the taliban in
Swat, also announced that the Swat taliban would not lay down
their arms until the Nazim-e-Adl regulation was fully
implemented and the Darul Qaza, or appellate courts, were
formed.


5. (SBU) Lower Dir local authorities report that as a result
of military operations, between 20,000 and 40,000 individuals
have left the northern half of Lower Dir and are seeking
shelter with host families in southern Lower Dir and in the
neighboring districts of Mardan, Peshawar, Charsadda, and
Swabi. UN officials met with civilian and military officials
in NWFP to negotiate access to Lower Dir and have agreed to a
combined UN security and humanitarian assessment on April 29.
The UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) has requested
the NWFP Social Welfare Department to resume registration of
IDPs, with a primary focus to be on those from Lower Dir and
Buner. NWFP authorities have also identified land for two
IDP camps in Dir, near Timergara, and at another smaller camp
in Mardan near the existing Jalozai Camp. Once these are
established, UNHCR said that it was ready to provide supplies.

BUNER UPDATE

ISLAMABAD 00000901 002 OF 002


--------------


6. (S/NF) In an April 28 meeting, Frontier Corps senior
leaders informed U.S. Special Operations Command - Forward
(SOC-FWD) Chief that operations in Buner will begin on April
29, moving from Mardan en route to Daggar, the main city in
Buner District. However, ISPR has announced airstrikes have
begun in Buner and a curfew has been imposed as of April 28.
(Comment. While we believe the main effort of the operations
will begin April 29, past experience has shown that the
Pakistani Military will often launch air operations to
interdict key targets before FC troops are actually deployed.
End comment.)


7. (S/NF) Ref A reported that SOC-FWD has been asked to
assist operations with Rover and communication capabilities.
So far, USG personnel have been staged at Frontier Corps
Headquarters (Bala Hisar - Peshawar),and at this time,
military and FC officials plan to have one of our officers
deployed with them in their district headquarters in Daggar
as operations unfold. FC officials expect to be in Daggar for
a day or two. We understand these military operations will
occur despite a request from an April 27 jirga in Buner that
accepted taliban rule and denounced any military involvement
within Buner. (ref B) End note.)


8. (SBU) Over the weekend, UN officials report that
approximately 350 families have fled Buner district for
neighboring districts, but with the expectation of Pakistan
military operations over the next few days, these numbers are
expected to rise.

SWAT UPDATE
--------------


9. (C) In an April 28 meeting with Peshawar Principal
Officer, Inspector General for the NWFP Police Malik Naveed
reported that conditions in Swat District (Malakand Division,
NWFP) were deteriorating. Militants, he said, were
kidnapping police, patrolling the roads, and had established
blockades around Mingora. Naveed commented that militants
had used the period of the peace deal to thoroughly penetrate
Mingora and nearby Saidu Sharif. He feared that this sort of
presence and control could result in a high level of violence
and confrontation in Swat's two primary population centers.


10. (C) Overnight, USAID local staff reported that taliban
ransacked the offices of a local non-governmental
organization (NGO),"Hujra," and Medecins sans Frontieres
("Doctors without Borders"),as well as the Agriculture Bank
in Mingora. The militants held the staffs hostage while
confiscating the office equipment, vehicles, and medicines.
Posters have also reportedly been hung and pamphlets have
been distributed to warn Swat media outlets against
broadcasting or printing any negative information about the
Swat taliban or their activites. While the security
situation remains tense, USAID local staff are working from
their homes.


11. (C) Comment. Some of our work these past months both with
the UN agencies and with the GOP is finally bearing fruit,
and both appear to be making a real effort to get out ahead
of the IDP situation this time. UN officials have sought
meetings with Pakistan civilian and military authorities and
are pressing to get into Lower Dir. GOP authorities are
apparently willing to allow access for an assessment mission,
which is also a turn for the better. The NWFP government's
decision to quickly identify land on which new camps can be
built is also promising and an improvement over the situation
last fall when IDPs were being shunted into empty schools and
other government buildings.


12. (C) While enhanced cooperation is limited to the FC (not
yet the Army),it is promising that the FC has offered for a
USG SOC-FWD officer to accompany them to the district
headquarters in Daggar, Buner, as operations unfold. A
Frontier Corps decision to actually allow a U.S. military
officer to accompany them to Daggar is an important window of
opportunity that could expand our military-military
relationship as well as provide an immediate, significant
boost to FC effectiveness. End comment.
FEIERSTEIN