Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ISLAMABAD776
2009-04-13 01:51:00
SECRET
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:  

BAITULLAH MEHSUD DECLARES WAR

Tags:  PREL PTER PGOV PK 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8036
PP RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #0776/01 1030151
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 130151Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2244
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0099
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0042
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4717
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 1423
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 7039
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 5968
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000776 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2019
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PK
SUBJECT: BAITULLAH MEHSUD DECLARES WAR

REF: LAHORE 67

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000776

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2019
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PK
SUBJECT: BAITULLAH MEHSUD DECLARES WAR

REF: LAHORE 67

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: On April 5, Baitullah Mehsud announced that
in retaliation for drone strikes in the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and a now five million
dollar U.S. bounty on his head, his Taliban would be carrying
out two attacks each week in Pakistan. This announcement
came after several days of brazen attacks across Pakistan,
including suicide bombings against the Frontier Constabulary
in Islamabad and a Shia mosque in Chakwal. Prime Minister
Gilani called a special law and order meeting and a follow-up
cabinet meeting to develop a new counter-terrorism policy.
Mehsud's goal clearly is to undermine public confidence in
the government by attacking security forces and fomenting
sectarian strife. Mehsud's move into the settled areas is
bringing terrorism to the doorstep of average citizens,
including in Lahore and Islamabad. However, without clear
government leadership most people are scared and unsure of
how to proceed. Many Pakistanis blame the GOP's cooperation
with the U.S. for this increase in terrorist attacks. Until
the GOP can articulate a clear strategy to contain Baitullah
Mehsud, most Pakistanis will not be swayed to the
government's side. End summary.

MEHSUD'S WAR
--------------


2. (C) Within 24 hours, between April 4 and 5, several
suicide bombs shook various cities in Pakistan including
Islamabad, a growing sign that Pakistan's Taliban are
overwhelming the GOP's security forces. In a telephone
interview with press on April 5, Hakimullah Mehsud, a
powerful deputy to Baitullah Mehsud, claimed Taliban
responsibility for the suicide attacks. The spokesman said
the bombings were in retaliation for an alleged drone attack
in Orakzai agency on April 1. Hakimullah announced the
Pakistani Taliban planned to carry out two attacks each week
within Pakistan in what he called "revenge" against Pakistan
for the missile strikes. Already on March 31, Baitullah
Mehsud claimed responsibility for the attack on the Lahore
police training center (see reftel). On April 4 Mehsud
reportedly claimed responsibility for a shooting incident in
New York in which 13 people were killed, though there is no

evidence that the New York incident was linked to Mehsud,
most of the other attacks were likely carried out by the
Pakistani Taliban. In the claims for responsibility, Mehsud
has threatened escalation of attacks against U.S. and GOP
targets in retaliation for U.S. drone strikes and the public
announcement of a USG bounty for information on his
whereabouts.


3. (S) Baitullah Mehsud is the leader of Tehrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP),the overarching umbrella organization that
loosely affiliates most Pakistani Taliban. Mehsud controls
much of South Waziristan agency and reportedly commands a
force of 40,000 to 50,000 fighters. Additionally, his reach
extends over most of the related Taliban militants in
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North West
Frontier Province (NWFP). With fighters spreading across the
country, his power is increasing and the TTP is claiming
responsibility for more attacks. The recent drone attacks
targeting Baitullah probably have spurred the Taliban into
more brazen action and demonstrate how little control the GOP
has over Baitullah and the TTP. Mehsud linking the attacks
in Pakistan to the U.S. drone attacks is also an attempt to
pressure the GOP into stopping the U.S. strikes. Mehsud's
Taliban are actively involved in a media campaign, reaching
out to the press regularly. With somewhat autonomous Taliban
deputies, such as Qari Hussain who is believed to lead
Fidayeen-e-Islam, Mehsud does not have to personally direct
each attack to spread his terror across the country.

ATTACK IN ISLAMABAD
--------------


4. (SBU) On April 4 a suicide bomber attacked a Frontier
Constabulary check-post in Sector F 7/3 in Islamabad. The
second such bombing in Islamabad in two weeks killed eight FC
personnel and one civilian, and also injured 12 others. The
blast took place at 1935 in the evening along the main
Margalla road near upper class diplomatic neighborhoods. The

ISLAMABAD 00000776 002 OF 003


blast was followed by the Pakistani security officials firing
in the air in response to the attack. The Deputy Inspector
General of Police confirmed the casualties and said the
terrorists used around 6 kg of explosives.


5. (C) Though the attack was directed at security personnel,
its location in the heart of Islamabad's upscale
neighborhoods affected the capital's diplomatic (including
this Embassy's) and political residents. Politicians of all
parties, including National Assembly Speaker Dr. Fehmida
Mirza, Punjab Governor Salman Taseer, Pakistan Muslim
League-Q President Chaudhry Shujaat, and Jamaat Islami (JI)
Chief Munnawar Hassan, all condemned the attacks and urged
action against the terrorists.

ATTACK AT CHAKWAL
--------------


6. (C) A suicide bomber killed at least 26 people on April 5
outside a Shia complex or "imambargah" in the middle of
Chakwal, a small Punjab city approximately 60 kilometers
south of Islamabad. Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah told
the press that security guards had intercepted the
perpetrator before he could enter the mosque, where an
estimated 1,200 worshippers had gathered. Police sources
told the Embassy April 6 that they suspected
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi involvement, which would link the Chakwal
bomber with the attacks on the Sri Lankan cricket team and
Manawan police training center, both in Lahore.


7. (C) Maharaja Tareen, a former Member of the Provincial
Assembly (MPA) from Chakwal, told FSNoff in an April 6 telcon
that Shias hold a majority in Chakwal district. Despite
absence of past sectarian conflict, Tareen pointed out, the
authorities treat the district as sensitive and deploy the
army during the Shia month of Muharram. She worried that the
large population of Shias in Tala Gang "tehsil", or county,
would make that neighboring area the next target of the
terrorists. She also suspected that Chakwal's close vicinity
to the frontier -- separated only by the district of Attock
-- makes Chakwal vulnerable to terrorist elements from the
tribal region.


8. (C) Chakwal District Nazim Sardar Ghulam Abbas reiterated
in an April 6 telcon with PolOff that the district has
experienced little sectarian strife in the past. However, he
claimed, "security agencies" have noticed that many terrorist
operatives have stayed in Chakwal with relatives or
acquaintances before and after they conducted attacks,
regardless of the location of the attack in Pakistan. He
criticized the government for its lack of attention and
understanding of the terrorist threat.

OTHER ATTACKS
--------------


9. (C) With large urban centers such as Lahore and Islamabad
suffering from high-profile attacks, smaller attacks continue
on almost a daily basis in the FATA and NWFP. On March 30,
the same day as the attack on the police training center in
Lahore, seven people, including five soldiers, were killed
and nine injured when a suicide bomber drove his car into a
military convoy on the Bannu-Miranshah road. On April 1,
five policemen were killed and two critically injured in an
ambush by militants in Upper Dir district. Additionally, on
the same day as the Islamabad attack, a suicide attacker
targeted a military convoy in Miranshah, North Waziristan
resulting in more than 30 deaths. The Taliban are still
careful that most of their attacks in Pakistan target police
or security forces, except for the Chakwal incident that was
aimed at Shias.

GOP RESPONSE
--------------


10. (SBU) In response to the spate of attacks, Prime
Minister Gilani called a special meeting on April 7 and a
cabinet meeting on April 8 to review the security situation.
The initial meeting included leading federal ministers, chief
ministers of all provinces, top police officials, heads of
the Federal Investigative Agency (FIA) and the Intelligency
Bureau (IB). Participants decided that the parliamentary
committee on national security would assess threats and

ISLAMABAD 00000776 003 OF 003


prepare a draft national policy to deal with the state of
insurgency, devise a de-radicalization program, enhance the
capacity of law-enforcement agencies, and submit a report in
two weeks.


11. (C) National Crisis Management Cell (NCMC) Director Tariq
Lodhi told Poloff that the meeting was largely pro-forma and
did not necessarily reflect a shift in policy. Lodhi, who
took part in the Prime Minister's initial meeting, said the
major weakness of the plan was that no ministry or body was
put in charge of coordinating the efforts. Additionally,
Lodhi felt that even if the heads of agencies had the
requisite expertise, their staffs had neither the training
nor the authority to develop effective counter-terrorism
policy.


12. (C) Comment: The increase in attacks may appear to be
the watershed that shifts Pakistani popular opinion in favor
of fighting the Taliban. In fact when faced with videos of
Taliban flogging a girl in Swat, Pakistanis responded with
widespread protests. In reality, while most Pakistanis do
not like the Taliban, many blame the GOP's cooperation with
the USG for the increase in terrorism. Prior to this recent
escalation of attacks in the settled areas, Mehsud had
focused on the tribal areas and had signed a peace deal with
the Pakistani military in February 2008. The common
understanding was that as Mehsud proclaimed in February 2009,
the Pakistani Taliban were to focus on Afghanistan and ISAF
forces at the behest of Mullah Omar. Press reports of U.S.
drone attacks in recent months targeting Mehsud and the USG
bounty against him may have pushed the Taliban fight back to
Pakistani security targets. The Taliban's renewed focus on
the Pakistani heartland may also be because Swat has
emboldened them; the government has virtually ceded Swat to
the Pakistani Taliban. Just as in Swat, when the GOP could
no longer promise citizens law and order the Taliban is ready
to step in.


13. (C) The Pakistani Taliban's attacks seek to undermine
people's sense of security and trust in the GOP. Mehsud's
increased attacks in urban centers have overwhelmed Pakistani
security forces and the government's ability to provide law
and order. Mehsud's TTP gains from the GOP's ineffectual
security capacity, and is able easily to spread its loose
network of terrorists across the country. At the same time
the TTP is careful to target police and security forces and
Shia minorities to avoid the general wrath of the Pakistani
populace. With increasing attacks, faith in the GOP's
ability to face terrorism is waning. The government's
response thus far has been to call for a new integrated
security policy, but no significant steps have been taken to
stop the attacks. End comment.
PATTERSON