Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ISLAMABAD1179
2009-05-29 14:42:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:  

ADB WILL CONDUCT A DAMAGE ASSESSMENT; NO

Tags:  EAID ECON IO PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER 
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VZCZCXRO5946
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #1179/01 1491442
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 291442Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2991
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0380
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0491
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 4984
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 1733
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 7333
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 6272
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 9507
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 3979
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 001179 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON IO PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER
SUBJECT: ADB WILL CONDUCT A DAMAGE ASSESSMENT; NO
GOVERNMENT GRANT EQUALS NO ONE GOING HOME

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 001179

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON IO PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER
SUBJECT: ADB WILL CONDUCT A DAMAGE ASSESSMENT; NO
GOVERNMENT GRANT EQUALS NO ONE GOING HOME


1. (SBU) Summary. In a May 29 meeting with Ambassador, the
Asia Development Bank (ADB) committed to doing a joint
damage/reconstruction assessment with the World Bank of the
conflict-affected areas. In order to properly conduct such a
survey, ADB has requested assistance through satellite
imagery, and Embassy will examine options for this request.
FATA Secretariat officials reported to Peshawar Principal
Officer on May 28 that the internally displaced persons
(IDPs) from Bajaur and Mohmand agencies refuse to leave the
camps until they receive the PKR 25,000 grant as promised
under the terms of the Prime Minister's National Response
Plan. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR) cite government sources as reporting that the total
number of IDPs at approximately 3 million to date, but all
acknowledge that fraud and duplication in registration have
resulted in inflated numbers. The Pakistan military
spokesman announced that operations in Swat continue as
Mingora is slowly being fully secured, and in a May 28 raid,
the military recovered 12 UN-registered vehicles and a
weapons cache. UN cluster members indicated that
coordination remains an issue, particularly camp management
and cluster levels. President Asif Zardari visited an IDP
camp in Swabi on May 29. End Summary.

ASIA DEVELOPMENT BANK DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
--------------


2. (SBU) Ambassador met with Asia Development Bank (ADB)
Country Director Rune Stroem on May 28 to discuss ABD's
participation in damage and reconstruction assessments in
Malakand Division and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA). Stroem reported that ADB and the World Bank received
a request for ABD and the World Bank to conduct this
assessment, and both agencies agreed. Stroem noted that the
scope of their assessment will be to look at economic
revitalization of the conflict-affected areas, but they will

delink any examination of the civil administration from the
economic survey because they believe that by including the
civil administration for purposes of the assessment that its
release will be slowed tremendously. Within the assessment,
the ADB also plans to look at ways to build capacity through
training officials on how to respond better to disasters and
other crises of this nature. Stroem made clear that the ADB
cannot commit its resources for an indefinite period of time,
and, therefore, the GOP will need to learn how to control
these assessment and reconstruction efforts in the future.


3. (SBU) Noting that the Embassy plans to send an assessment
team into Buner on June 2 to examine law enforcement and
infrastructure needs, Stroem requested that the Embassy and
ADB teams meet regularly to compare notes and information for
clearer damage assessments. Stroem also requested assistance
in procuring satellite imagery to gain better understanding
of the scope of damage. Embassy will examin options for this
request.

CIVIL-MILITARY COOPERATION COMMITTEE
--------------


4. (SBU) On May 28, Peshawar Principal Officer and other
Consulate and Embassy personnel attended the monthly
Civil-Military Cooperation Committee (CMCC) that brings
together representatives from the FATA Secretariat, Frontier
Corps (FC),and various political agents throughout the FATA.
According to Habibullah Khan, the Additional Chief Secretary
of the FATA Secretariat, plans are in place to fully clear
Bajaur and Mohmand agencies of remaining militants in order
to bring the internally displaced persons (IDPs) home. No
time frame for the operations was provided. Khan reported
that he had staff canvassing every IDP camp to find the
Bajaur and Mohmand IDPs and to talk with them about
returning; however, most IDP families are refusing to go back
until they have the promised PKR 25,000 (approximately USD
300) in hand, as promised under the Prime Minister's National
Response Plan. Additionally, Khan noted that the lack of
donor coordination among the international community,
including the UN, was making his planning for IDP returns
complicated and difficult. (Note: Khan reported that he
continues to receive several requests from various donors,
asking for a return plan and promising money, but he is

ISLAMABAD 00001179 002 OF 004


confused as to what, if anything, is actually being done and
if these money pipelines are actually being created. End
note.) Embassy will continue to work with the FATA
Secretariat and the UN agencies in Pakistan to develop one,
streamlined voice in regard to donor coordination.

UNHCR-PESHAWAR MEETING
--------------


5. (SBU) The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR) Peshawar told Peshawar Principal Officer on May 28
that the newly registered IDP population stands at 2.5
million (314,000 families) with "transit" and "spontaneous"
camps still to be accounted for. (Note: With the old case
load of 550,000 IDPs, this estimate would put the UNHCR total
IDP population at over 3 million IDPs. End note.) UNHCR
Peshawar is increasingly focusing on IDP populations in these
unofficial camps and schools. Numbers of civilians unable to
leave Swat or Dir districts remains unclear. Bajaur and
Mohmand IDPs, according to UNHCR Peshawar, are returning,
which has freed up space at Jalozai camp (Nowshera district).
Unexploded ordnance was found and cleared in an area of the
camp where Afghan refugees had once lived. There are
sufficient food supplies, but IDPs are angry over being
forced to flee without their possessions. UNHCR Peshawar is
exploring the procurement of individual stoves but must
identify an appropriate fuel source. Communal kitchens have
been rejected by IDPs because of tensions over mixing with
strangers. UNHCR is helping Dera Ismail Khan (DI Khan)
District Coordination Officer identify camp sites for
outflows from South Waziristan. Numbers are conflicting, but
most of those leaving now appear to have winter homes in DI
Khan.

MILITARY UPDATE
--------------


6. (U) Militants continue to defend the main town of Mingora
and nearby locales. A number of reports indicate that
Baitullah Mehsud and other militants in North and South
Waziristan are preparing to oppose an army offensive. There
are reports of plans to attack police patrols, police posts,
and container yards along the Ring Road in Peshawar. Taliban
militants continue to fire mortars and rockets at military
posts in the Waziristans. Militant forces are reportedly
massing in Mohmand Agency (FATA) to interdict lines of
communication and attack FC garrisons. Militants continue to
operate in Lower Dir and have the ability to mass for planned
assaults against government positions.


7. (U) According to the Director General for Inter-Services
Public Relations (ISPR),Major General Athar Abbas, reported
that in the last 24 hours, 28 militants were killed and seven
arrested in various areas of Swat while 5 soldiers and 2
civilians were injured.


8. (U) ISPR also reports that security forces continued with
cordon and search operations and successfully cleared the
stronghold of militants at Peochar village, Swat. Pakistan
security forces destroyed militant hideouts, including one
madrassah and recovered 12 UN registered vehicles. Four
tunnels were reportedly discovered with ration items that had
been stolen from relief agencies and a cache of weapons.

CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR IDPS
--------------

Numbers:


9. (U) Embassy continues to receive differing numbers on the
IDP totals, but new and old caseload totals average still at
about 3 million total IDPs. Embassy contacts report that
various agency and district officials are encouraging their
constituents, whether conflict affected or not, to register
as IDPs for the purposes of receiving the free relief items
and the PKR 25,000 grant from the GOP. Additionally, reports
indicate that husband and wives are separately registering
their family at different registration hubs in order to
receive double benefits. The National Database and
Registration Authority (NADRA) assured the Embassy that it

ISLAMABAD 00001179 003 OF 004


would have the registration lists scrubbed for duplications
by next week and expect that once these lists are scrubbed
that the overall total will decrease by 20 to 30 percent.

Return Package Grant and Disbursement:


10. (SBU) The GOP has allocated PKR 8 billion (approximately
USD 100 million) out of the supplementary budget grants in
order to meet its commitment to pay PKR 25,000 (approximately
USD 300) to each IDP family. Although there are plans to
disburse this money to IDPs via so-called "smart cards"
(essentially microchipped versions of the traditional
NADRA-issued ID cards that can be programmed for a variety of
electronic banking and other services),their program is
still several weeks, if not months, away from being fully
operational. On May 22, after months of preparation, a small
pilot project in Kacha Gari camp in Peshawar distributed
smart cards to 400 IDP families. It is likely the GOP will
turn to more traditional means of disbursement to process
these payments in a timely manner.

Humanitarian Support:


10. (U) The USAID Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART)
urged NGOs to focus on meeting the immediate humanitarian
needs, particularly of the IDPs outside the formal camps.
The DART encouraged NGOs to coordinate through the UN cluster
system, agree on respective geographic focus, and work with
local NGOs and local authorities.


11. (U) NGOs discussed various strategies of providing
support to IDPs through cash or voucher distribution
programs. One NGO noted that such programming is very tricky
to implement properly without substantial previous
experience. Another NGO has begun a cash distribution
program for both IDPs and host families through an agreement
with a local bank. A third NGO is handing out 3,000
Pakistani rupees along with partial non-food item kits in
Mardan district, but indicated that IDPs preferred full NFI
kits without cash in Swabi district, perhaps as markets there
are not functioning quite as well as in Mardan and other
districts.

Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH):


12. (U) At the May 28 UN WASH cluster meeting, the UN
Children's Fund (UNICEF) noted that the organization is
trying to improve information management by expanding the UN
website and posting additional cluster information. The
website is available at http://unportal.un.org.pk.


13. (U) Cluster members indicated that coordination remains
an issue, particularly camp management and cluster levels.


14. (U) Organizations participating in the cluster discussed
how to best prioritize WASH projects. UNICEF circulated
guidance for comment that included the following criteria:
The cluster should prioritize WASH assistance to formal and
spontaneous camps with more than 100 IDP families, with the
goal of initially providing assistance to meet 50 percent of
SPHERE indicators for key WASH services and subsequently
updated to fully meet SPHERE standards. The next priority
would be IDPs in schools with little or no functioning
infrastructure, with the same initial and subsequent goals.
The third priority would be to target IDPs living with host
families with acute WASH-related vulnerabilities, as
determined by additional assessments.

Access to Food/Non-food Support:


15. (U) The World Food Program (WFP) reported that 52 percent
of the registered IDPs was accessing food and NFIs at the 10
distribution hubs in Mardan district. WFP is currently
assessing 8 additional locations to improve service delivery
and increase the coverage percentage. WFP noted that the
access percentage was higher in neighboring districts,
including Swabi (90 percent),Nowshera (85 percent),and
Peshawar (80 percent).

POLITICAL UPDATE

ISLAMABAD 00001179 004 OF 004


--------------


16. (U) Media reports that President Asif Ali Zardari visited
an IDP camp in Swabi district.


17. (U) Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani announced that the
GOP had developed an "exit plan" for the Malakand operations,
which included hiring recently retired Army personnel to
bolster the depleted and demoralized police force. The
operational commander in Mingora, Brigadier Tabhir Hameed,
warned that after Swar was secured, the Taliban could
re-enter the area. Hameed said that cooperation by civilians
was essential to prevent a return of the Taliban.


18. (U) In Peshawar, hundreds of students affiliated with a
student organization linked to Jamaat-i-Islami (JI),marched
to demand an end to the military offensive in Malakand. The
student leader, Atiqur Rahman, alleged that the war in
Malakand was launched on "American dictation." He urged the
youth to stand against the U.S. policies and protect their
land. Sirajul Haq, JI's NWFP provincial chief, said those
who picked up arms should use them against the U.S. in
Afghanistan. Haq condemned the Awami National Party (ANP)
and Pakistan People's Party (PPP),stating that the "people
of Governor Ghani and demanding repatriation of IDPs to their
homes, the leader of the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI) Maulana
Gul Naseeb also demanded the government to halt ongoing
military operations in Malakand.


19. (U) NWFP Senior Minister Bashir Ahmed Bilour (affiliated
with the ANP) gave a speech at Shah Mansoor IDP camp in
Swabi, attacking JI for its opposition to the Malakand
operation. Bilour stated that this party had always played a
negative role, contributing to the killing of thousands of
security personnel and the millions suffering under the
current IDP crisis.


20. (U) As Gilani urged Pakistanis to not abuse IDP supplies,
reports circulated widely in Peshawar that IDPs from Swat
were allegedly selling relief goods provided to them by the
World Food Program. Police were investigating reports that
dealers purchase relief goods at cheap rates and then
transfer thrm to warehouses for sale on the open market.
NWFP Inspector General Police Malik Naveed Khan said 50
suspects had been arrested from relief camps set up for IDPs
from Malakand. Khan urged people to cooperate with law
enforcement agencies to apprehend extremist elements.


21. (U) In Swabi district, a mob of IDPs, reportedly angered
by the government closure of 12 out of 15 registration
points, swarmed the only remaining registration and food
distribution point in Kernal Sher Killay. The protest
triggered the police to launch a baton charge at the IDPs.
PATTERSON