Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ISLAMABAD1140
2009-05-26 13:50:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:  

PAKMIL CONTINUES TO MAKE GAINS IN SWAT; UN PUTS

Tags:  EAID ECON IO PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER 
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VZCZCXRO2714
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #1140/01 1461350
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 261350Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2910
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0345
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0437
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 4950
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 1696
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 7296
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 6235
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 9474
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 3963
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ISLAMABAD 001140 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON IO PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER
SUBJECT: PAKMIL CONTINUES TO MAKE GAINS IN SWAT; UN PUTS
IDP NUMBERS AT 2.85 MILLION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 ISLAMABAD 001140

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON IO PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER
SUBJECT: PAKMIL CONTINUES TO MAKE GAINS IN SWAT; UN PUTS
IDP NUMBERS AT 2.85 MILLION


1. (SBU) Summary. The Pakistan military tightened control
around Mingora on May 25 and 26. Swat Taliban leader Maulana
Fazullah announced that his men would no longer fight in
Mingora and pleaded for those displaced to return to the
city. However, Pakistan military officials saw this
announcement as a ploy to convince the displaced to return to
provide better cover to their militancy operations. U.S.
Consulate Peshawar contacts report that militant presence is
increasing in the northern Swat areas, Lower Dir and Shangla
while in Buner, the Frontier Corps is preparing for
mopping-up sweeps.


2. (SBU) The UN High Commission of Refugees reports the total
number of internally displaced persons to be approximately
2.85 million; however, these numbers are likely to decrease
by 20 to 30 percent once registration lists are cleaned and
consolidated, expected to be completed by the end of May. UN
agencies report that approximately 500 schools within the
Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) are currently being used
to house the displaced families, and the agencies are looking
at ways to better assist this portion of the population as
well. In a press conference on May 25, the Benazir Income
Support Program Chairperson announced that as many as 25,000
IDP families from Swat will be issued "Benazir Smart Cards,"
which will entitle these families to free health facilities,
life insurance, and vocational training for one family
member. A riot broke out at a Mardan district IDP camp
following the visit of Pakistan Muslim League leadership.
End Summary.

MILITARY UPDATE
--------------

SWAT District, Malakand Division, Northwest Frontier Province
(NWFP):


3. (U) On May 25, the Pakistan Army reported that they had
secured Maalam Jabba, the former ski resort and a militant
stronghold. Major General Athar Abbas, spokesman for the
Army's Inter-services Public Relations office (DG ISPR),

noted that Maalam Jabba was on the main line of communication
between Swat and Manserha District, NWFP, and was being used
as a training center and logistics base for militants.
During the fighting, the Army reportedly killed four
militants; six soldiers were injured and eight militants were
arrested. Abbas also reported that Pakistan troops continued
operations in the Peochar valley and neighboring areas where
Taliban from Mingora are fleeing.


4. (U) In a press conference, Abbas noted once again that the
operations in Swat, especially in the main city of Mingora,
will be "a little slow" and may take "seven to ten days" to
fully clear the city of militants. He reported that the slow
progress was a combination of fighting while attempting to
avoid civilian casualties and clearing the improvised
explosive devices (IEDs) that the Army is encountering in
Mingora proper.


5. (U) Following the capture of Maalam Jabba, General Tariq
Majid, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a visiting
CODEL on May 26 that Pakistan military troops secured
strategic peaks around Saidu Sharif, the Swat district
capital and south of Mingora, allowing for tighter control
around the Mingora area.


6. (U) In a May 25 interview, Taliban spokesman Muslim Khan
announced that the Swat Taliban leader Maulana Fazlullah has
directed his men to stop battling within Mingora and
surrounding areas. According to Khan, Fazlullah believes
that the fighting is only causing undue hardships on the
innocent civilian population of Mingora and he will not
create any further hurdles for the internally displaced
persons (IDPs) to return to their homes there. Khan noted,
however, that this appeal for the IDPs to return was not to
be interpreted as a ceasefire in that the Taliban will remain
in the main city to "enforce shari'a law." Abbas dismissed
these claims as a "ploy" by the militants to use the
returning residents as a cover in their attempts to better
blend in with the local population.


ISLAMABAD 00001140 002 OF 005



7. (SBU) Non-governmental organization (NGO) contacts with
U.S. Consulate Peshawar report that there is an increasing
militant presence in Kalam city in the Kohistani area of
northern Swat.

SHANGLA District, Malakand Division, NWFP:


8. (U) Local media report that militants from Buner and Swat
on May 25 took over several key locations, including a
government house, and a portion of the highway in the Poran
area of Shangla district that links Shangla to Swat. Press
indicates that a curfew has been in place and communication
lines disrupted for the past five days in Shangla to allow
for movement of security forces.

LOWER DIR District, Malakand Division, NWFP:


9. (U) Local press reports that on May 25 the Kalpani check
post in Lower Dir was attacked, and in the incursion, two
security personnel and 20 militants were killed.


10. (SBU) On May 26, Consulate Peshawar contacts within the
local district government said that continued militant
activity in the Maidan area (home to Maulana Sufi Mohammad)
is leading the district government to contemplate a curfew on
that area yet again in preparation for possible follow-on
operations in that area by the Frontier Corps (FC).

BUNER District, Malakand Division, NWFP


11. (SBU) In Buner, a contact within the local government
confirmed with Consulate Peshawar on May 26 that while
militants remained in the Pir Baba area and other northern
parts of the district, no organized resistance remains. The
Frontier Corps (FC) is reforming local lashkar forces
(neighborhood watch groups) to conduct "mopping-up" sweeps.

SOUTH WAZIRISTAN Agency, Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA):


12. (U) On May 25, security forces moved tanks and heavy
artillery into Frontier Region Tank, adjacent to South
Waziristan. Additional reports indicate that on May 26,
troops entered the Chak Malai area of South Waziristan
without resistance.

CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR IDPS
--------------

Statistics:


13. (U) According to the UN High Commission for Refugees
(UNHCR) on May 26, the overall number of registered IDPs,
including both the old and new caseloads, is approximately
2.85 million IDPs. (Note: UN and GOP authorities consider
the influx of IDPs from Swat, Buner, and Lower Dir since May
2 to be the "new caseload" as opposed to the 550,000 IDPs
from the earlier Bajaur and Mohmand operations. End note.)


14. (U) Before the National Assembly Standing Committee on
Interior on May 25, Interior Ministry Joint Secretary
Shahidullah Beg reported that there are 26 relief camps
currently operating in the NWFP, with 338,422 IDPs living in
them, with another approximately 2.6 million IDPs living
outside the camps with host families. According to GOP
numbers, this brought the current IDP population to over 2.9
million IDPs. Additionally, the NWFP government has deployed
Frontier Corps and police assets to the camps for security
purposes and established over 80 registration points
throughout Mardan, Swabi, Charsadda, Nowshera, Kohat, and
Peshawar districts.


15. (U) The overall number of IDPs is likely to decrease by
20 to 30 percent once the National Database and Registration
Authority (NADRA) completes the consolidation of the various
registration lists, which is expected by the end of May.
This consolidation is likely to remove many duplicate
registrations that are known to have taken place in the
overall registration process.


ISLAMABAD 00001140 003 OF 005


Return of IDPs:


16. (SBU) In a May 25 meeting with RefCoord and USAID
Disaster Assistance Relief Team (DART) Leader, the UNHCR
confirmed that it has not been facilitating the IDP returns
announced by Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmad with the Special
Support Group (SSG). UNHCR staff believes that IDPs are
largely returning temporarily in order to harvest crops and
that the IDPs themselves are in the best position to
determine whether it is safe to return. IDPs are free to
take their UNHCR-provided tents and non-food items kits
(NFIs) if they return home. The NWFP government is not
providing UNHCR data on those returning, and, therefore, the
absence of returned IDPs is only evident, whether inside or
outside the camps, when they do not arrive for food
distributions. UNHCR does not plan to de-register IDPs
unless they fail to arrive for two consecutive (monthly)
distributions of dry rations. UNHCR staff said they had no
way to assess the realities of GOP estimates of returnees
from outside the camps, but the staff did note that they had
observed returns to Bajaur agency from the Jalozai camps.
UNHCR posited that IDPs will not permanently return until
after they receive the GOP's promised PKR 25,000/family.
(Note: UNHCR reports that IDP are also supposed to receive
compensation for loss of family members killed in the
conflict. End note.) (septel)

Humanitarian Situation:


17. (U) The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) reported on May 26 that a number of IDPs
residing outside the camps are currently occupying
approximately 500 schools in the NWFP, where the conditions
are reportedly overcrowded. The UN Water, Sanitation, and
Hygiene (WASH) cluster chairman in Swabi district reported
that all government schools in the district are currently
sheltering IDPs and noted the need for additional WASH
support. (Note: USAID's Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster
Assistance (OFDA) is providing WASH support to displaced
populations, including individuals in host communities,
schools, and other facilities, through the UN Children's Fund
(UNICEF) and humanitarian NGOs. End note.)


18. (U) OCHA noted the importance of support for families
hosting IDPs, particularly the families that have been
hosting families displaced since the previous year. OCHA
also emphasized the importance of assisting populations that
have stayed behind in the conflict areas once assessments can
be conducted, particularly for the elderly, sick and
disabled. UN Habitat, which OFDA is supporting in the
shelter sector, reported that distributions of 5,000 tents to
alleviate IDP overcrowding in host communities in Mardan
district began on May 25.


19. (SBU) Following a May 25 meeting with Nadeem, OCHA
reported that security conditions in Buner district,
particularly in the south, are improving enough to permit an
assessment of the damage in the near future. The UN is
planning to conduct a multi-agency needs assessment of
populations that stayed behind and damage assessment of
infrastructure needed to facilitate IDP returns. The UN is
also planning to conduct a similar assessment in Bajaur
agency in the near future, date yet to be confirmed.

Humanitarian Coordination:


20. (U) UN agencies are increasing staffing in response to
the new displacement. OCHA is adding two international field
officers soon (date unknown) while UNHCR has added 14
additional international staff for operational support in the
past week. The UN Department of Safety and Security is
bringing an analyst to Pakistan to provide additional
security information to the entire humanitarian community.


21. (U) The UN Shelter cluster met during the week of May 18,
and it focused primarily on camp issues, with limited
discussion of host family needs and planning for IDP returns.
In discussions with the DART, NGOs have highlighted the
importance of also providing shelter assistance for some IDPs
living in host communities, such as them living in household

ISLAMABAD 00001140 004 OF 005


courtyards.

Humanitarian Assistance:


22. (U) In a press conference on May 25, Benazir Income
Support Program Chairperson Farzana Raja announced that as
many as 25,000 IDP families from Swat will be issued "Benazir
Smart Cards," which will entitle these families to free
health facilities, life insurance, and vocational training
for one family member. The card holders were also to receive
a monthly stipend of PKR 1000 (approximately USD 12). She
also noted that over 500 displaced women in Peshawar had
already received the cards and expected to have 3.5 million
families, including IDP families, to benefit from this
program by the end of June. (Note: To ensure transparency
and accuracy, Raja noted that the cards would have the
recipient's fingerprint, instead of photo, and a "poverty
score card" that would give details of the recipient's
financial status. End note.)


23. (U) On May 23, the Embassy's Narcotics Affairs Section
provided a generator set for the FC sub-headquarters office
in Daggar, the district capital of Buner. The electrical
grid and tube wells for providing potable water had been
previously damaged by militant activity. The FC offices, the
troop accommodation area, the District Commissioner's Office,
and the Civil Colony within Buner are now receiving fresh
drinking water due to the generator set. (Note: FC troops in
Buner have been reporting a high level of intestinal ailments
due to the dirty drinking water. End note.)

Health and WASH:


24. (U) The UN World Health Organization (WHO) reported on
May 26 that the Disease Early Warning System has been
established in Swabi District, and reporting commenced
immediately.


25. (U) UNICEF staff noted that the recent displacement
offered an opportunity for polio vaccination teams to reach
children previously inaccessible due to militant opposition
to vaccination campaigns. To date, UNICEF teams have
vaccinated 15,000 children in seven camps for polio and
measels in NWFP and noted that future vaccination campaigns
would cover children accommodated in schools, government
buildings, IDP camps, and private premises. UNICEF is also
providing teams with special training to vaccinate and
register all children based with host families. (Note: UNICEF
reports that the success of the vaccination campaigns has
been due in large part to improved camp management at all the
camps. End note.)


26. (U) In addition, UNICEF reported providing safe drinking
water and sanitation facilities for more than 22,000 people
in four of the recently established camps to prevent the
spread of diseases among children. UNICEF is supporting
latrines, water tanks, and boreholes for safe drinking water.

POLITICAL UPDATE
--------------


27. (U) On May 26, Pakistan Muslim League leader Chaudhry
Shujaat Hussain visited the Takhtbai IDP camp in Mardan
district. During his visit, he promised the camp inhabitants
that the PML would provide over 10,000 fans to the 26 camps
as summer approached and turned over a small number of fans
to the Takhtbai camp management. As management attempted to
distribute the fans, a riot took place and security forces
were called in restrain the crowd.


28. (U) In a May 25 briefing to the Peshawar Press Club,
Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) provincial ameer Sirajul Haq accused the
Awami National Party (ANP),the ruling party of the NWFP, of
sabotaging the peace agreement with the Taliban and the
shari'a-based Nizam-e-Adl, which led to the "current
disastrous situation" in Malakand Division. In response,
NWFP Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain said that the
religious parties, including JI, had been taken into
confidence before the Malakand operations were launched and
the enforcement of the Nizam-e-Adl regulation had been

ISLAMABAD 00001140 005 OF 005


enforced in Malakand; therefore, JI and other religious
parties had no justification in denouncing the ongoing
situation in the division.
PATTERSON