PAKISTAN MILITARY CLAIM MINGORA; PRIME MINISTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 001122

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID ECON IO PGOV PHUM PINR PK PREF PREL PTER
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN MILITARY CLAIM MINGORA; PRIME MINISTER
CALLS FOR MORE IDP SUPPORT


1. (SBU) Summary. Pakistan military operations continued on
May 25, as the troops continued efforts to recapture the main
Swat city of Mingora and secure major intersections and
surrounding areas. Major General Athar Abbas, the Director
General's Inter-Services Public Relations (DG ISPR)
spokesman, reported in a May 24 press conference that the
operations in Mingora will be "painfully slow" despite the
operational gains being made by the military. Media reports
indicate that "thousands" of South Waziristan citizens are
fleeing for fear of upcoming military operations in their
agency. The Prime Minister announced that the world "should
do more for the internally displaced persons (IDPs)." The
Information Minister announced that the federal Special
Support Group had assessed the costs associated with the
rehabilitation portion of the Prime Minister's National
Response Plan and determined that this phase would require
USD 1 billion (approximately PKR 80 billion) to complete.
The religious party Jamaat-e-Islami continued to hold
anti-American rallies in Islamabad on May 24, saying that the
Government of Pakistan should not support USG policies and
should stop the operations in Swat. End Summary.

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MILITARY UPDATE
--------------

SWAT District, Malakand Division, Northwest Frontier Province
(NWFP):


2. (SBU) Military operations continued in Mingora, the
principal city within Swat, on May 25, as the curfew in Swat
remains in effect for the twentieth day. In a press
conference on May 24, Major General Athar Abbas, the
Inter-Services Public Relations (DG ISPR) spokesman, reported
that the operations in Mingora will be "painfully slow."
Abbas, however, also reported that the Pakistan Military
(PakMil) had made steady progress in Swat, capturing major
cities, militant hideouts, and intersections, including a
crossing that became notorious for Taliban beheadings. In
the village of Peochar, a stronghold of the Swat Taliban,
PakMil reportedly seized a cache of arms and a factory for
manufacturing bombs and improvised explosive devices (IEDs).
He noted that at this point in the Mingora operations, ten
militants and three PakMil soldiers had been killed and 14
Taliban had been arrested. No numbers of civilian casualties
were reported in the media. PakMil troops had also
encountered 12 IEDs and defused four of them.


3. (SBU) Abbas noted that due to the ongoing operations, 3000
residents were trapped in the city of Kanju, a Swat city
north of Mingora. The operations are preventing the
residents from leaving or relief supplies from reaching the
area. (Note: Prime Minister Yousef Gilani told Ambassador on
May 25 that there were approximately 70,000 residents trapped
throughout Swat. End note.)

LOWER DIR District, Malakand Division, NWFP:


4. (SBU) In Lower Dir, the curfew will remain relaxed until
1600 on May 25, except for Chakdara, a city in southern Lower
Dir near the Swat border. Local press reports note
district-wide shortages in fuel with heavy price gouging
taking place.

CHARSADDA District, Malakand Division, NWFP:


5. (SBU) In Charsadda, the police claimed to have caught
seven Taliban in a raid on a madrassah; those arrested
reportedly included Qari Insanullah, a Taliban commander
accused of conducting attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Police recovered three suicide jackets, explosives and
assault rifles.

ORAKZAI Agency, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA):


6. (SBU) Pakistani jets and helicopter gunships attacked
Taliban hideouts in Orakzai, including reported strongholds
of Hakimullah Mehsud, Baitullah Mehsud's deputy. According
to the media, Tehrik-e-Taliban commander Ehsanullah and
twelve other Taliban were killed in these attacks. (septel)

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SOUTH WAZIRISTAN Agency, FATA:


7. (SBU) Press reported that two soldiers were killed in
South Waziristan when militants attacked a Frontier Corps
(FC) fort. The media continue to report that "thousands" of
Waziristan residents are fleeing in anticipation of
operations by the PakMil. (Note. U.S. Consulate Peshawar
contacts report that Mehsuds are leaving South Waziristan via
North Waziristan and reiterated that several thousand
departing is not an unreasonable estimate. End note.)


8. (U) Please see the weekly talibanization cable from U.S.
Consulate Peshawar for further reporting on militant
activities throughout the NWFP and FATA.

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CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR IDPS
--------------

GOP actions:


9. (U) In a press conference on May 25, Information Minister
Qamar Zaman Kaira, head of the federal Special Support Group
(SSG),announced that the SSG had completed its assessment of
the costs expected to be associated with the rehabilitation
phase of the Prime Minister's National Response Plan, and in
order to complete the phase, it would cost USD 1 billion
(approximately PKR 80 billion). Kaira also reported that the
current IDP figures stood at over 2.7 million internally
displaced persons (IDPs). (Note: The UN Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) report the
numbers to be at 2.3 million registered IDPs. End note.)
Kaira noted that the SSG spent the day briefing various GOP
ministries on the current IDP situation and the associated
costs.


10. (U) PakMil reported in the press that it was extending
delivery of relief supplies, to include sending 15 trucks of
relief goods to the besieged people in Maidan, Lower Dir
(home of Maulana Sufi Mohammad),Bahrain and Kalam (both
cities within Swat). The Pakistan Army reports that it has
donated 510 tons of food from its daily quota, which includes
flour, pulses, sugar and ghee (or clarified butter).


11. (U) Although still being developed and not yet fully
operational, the NWFP Emergency Response Unit (ERU) website
contains information on IDP numbers, registration points,
camps, sectoral responsibilities, and points of contact. The
address is http://www.helpidp.org/who is doing what.php.

Humanitarian Situation:


12. (U) OCHA reported that the 27 current camps, which are
hosting more than 150,000 IDPs, have electricity and regular
health service provisions. OCHA is currently planning for
contingencies for the upcoming monsoon season, which
typically starts in July and lasts until August or September.


13. (U) According to OCHA, IDP registration is beset with
problems, including fraud and lack of registration
capacities. They estimate that as many as 30 percent of the
2.3 million IDPs registered with the GOP Ministry of Social
Welfare are fraudulent, and people are registering with fake
identity cards or registering multiple times for purposes of
benefits. (Note: The National Database and Registration
Authority (NADRA),which is responsible for issuing the
national identity cards, has recently assumed responsibility
for entering all IDP registration into a database in order to
eliminate duplications and verify population numbers. The UN
High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) told Embassy that
NADRA will complete data entry by the end of May. End note.)
OCHA also estimates that only 60 percent of the host families
for IDPs are receiving some level of assistance, largely due
to access and fraud issues, and many of the host families are
receiving duplicate assistance.

Humanitarian Coordination:


14. (U) The Pakistan Humanitarian Forum, a consortium of 29

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international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) working
in Pakistan, has released a consolidated report of
approximately fifteen NGO rapid assessments conducted within
the first three days of the recent displacement in Mardan and
Swabi districts. The combined assessments identified
humanitarian needs, including hygiene kits, household
supplies, safe drinking water, health services, food
assistance, livelihoods interventions (cash grants or
vouchers),and protection services for female-headed
households, unaccompanied children, and other vulnerable
populations. However, the NGOs each conducted the initial
assessments quickly, without overall coordination on
humanitarian sectors or geographic locations covered,
resulting in gaps in the data.


15. (U) A major international humanitarian organization
working in Pakistan informed the Disaster Assistance Response
Team (DART) of the need for a comprehensive assessment of the
IDP situation. One possibility would be using the
Multi-cluster Rapid Assessment Mechanism (MCRAM) methodology,
which was used during the Balochistan earthquake response in
November 2008. The MCRAM assessment methodology includes
questions from each humanitarian sector and is conducted by
the UN agencies and NGOs, in coordination with the GOP.


16. (U) The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) has included a
request to fund the MCRAM assessment in the revised UN
Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP). NGOs had previously agreed
not to conduct separate assessments if the MCRAM assessment
were done within 72 hours of a humanitarian emergency. MCRAM
was not done when the recent displacement began in early May
due to lack of available funding.

Food Assistance:


17. (U) According to OCHA, meals in camps are being provided
by caterers three times per day, at a cost of PKR 85
(approximately USD 1) per person, per day. UNHCR informed
Embassy on May 25 that dry food rations and firewood
provisions would be arranged in the camps shortly, in some
camps as soon as this week.

Health:


18. (U) OCHA noted that IDPs in the camps have good access to
primary health care provided by NGOs, including International
Medical Corps and Merlin, as well as the UN World Health
Organization (WHO),which with UNICEF is the cluster lead.


19. (U) WHO has recorded increasing cases of diarrhea in the
camps and is investigating the source by testing the food and
water provided to the IDPs. WHO suspects that the locally
produced ice supplied by GOP authorities may be the source of
the problem, but this has yet to be confirmed.

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POLITICAL UDPATE
--------------


20. (SBU) On May 24, Prime Minister Gilani pleaded that the
world "should do more for the IDPs." He announced that the
operations in Swat would be to the benefit of the world and,
therefore, more should be done in humanitarian assistance.


21. (SBU) The religious party Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) held
another anti-American rally in Islamabad on May 24 in which
its leader, Munawar Hassan, called for an end to military
operations that were killing innocent civilians. He accused
the Government of Pakistan (GOP) of pursuing pro-American and
"mischievous" policies.


22. (SBU) Meanwhile, a group of moderate religious leaders,
headed by madrassah Jamia Naemia leader Safaz Naeemi,
organized an anti-Taliban rally for June 2 in Lahore.


23. (SBU) The public debate about where the IDPs should be
housed continued after several days of violent protests in
Sindh province, organized by the Jiay Sindh Quami Mahaz
(JSQM) party and the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) against
locating IDPs in Sindh. The mohajir-based MQM has a growing

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concern about the presence in Karachi of Pashtuns fleeing
combat in the FATA. (Note: Even before the IDP crisis, there
were between 3 million and 4 million Pashtuns in Karachi. End
note.) The Chief Ministers of Sindh and Punjab have welcomed
publicly the IDPs but want them to be registered. The GOP
and NWFP governments prefer the IDPs be housed as close to
their homes as possible to facilitate returns in a more
timely fashion.
PATTERSON