SITUATION IN SWAT: MAY 12

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 001025

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2019
TAGS: AEMR AMGT CASC KFLO PGOV PINR PK PREL
SUBJECT: SITUATION IN SWAT: MAY 12

REF: A. ISLAMABAD 1007

B. PESHAWAR 100

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (SBU) Summary. Prime Minister Gilani called a special
session of the National Assembly to discuss the situation in
Swat and surrounding areas in Malakand District as well as
the humanitarian situation of the growing number of IDPs.
While most of the members agreed to support the government,s
actions, one Islamist coalition partner, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam
Fazlur (JUI-F) walked out of the debate until persuaded by
the PM to return. End Summary.


NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEBATE
- - - - - - - - - - - -


2. (U) On May 11, Prime Minister Gilani called a special
session of the National Assembly (NA) to discuss the
situation in Malakand and the humanitarian situation
surrounding the growing number of IDPs. Gilani explained
that the President signed the Nizam-e-Adl regulation on April
13 out of respect for the area and as part of a peace
agreement with militants, but the process has fallen apart.
Since the writ of the government was not respected by the
militants under the terms of the Nizam-e-Adl, the GOP had no
choice but to employ military action. However, military
action, he noted, is not a permanent solution.


3. (U) The PM also announced that the situation in Swat and
Malakand Division are matters for the NWFP government, and
that the provincial government will be in control of all
operations there. A Special Support Group will be formed at
the federal level to assist the NWFP government with the
security and humanitarian needs of the area. The Special
Support Group will have representatives from several
ministries, including Health, Education, Interior, Defense,
among others, and will be led by Lt General Nadeem Ahmad, who
was chosen because of his exceptional work after the 2005
earthquake, first as deputy of the Federal Relief Commission
and later as head of Earthquake Reconstruction and
Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA). This Special Support Group
has four main objectives: 1) registration of IDPs, 2) medical
assistance, 3) IDP camp management, and 4) procurement and
distribution of supplies (reftel A and septel).

REACTIONS TO THE SPECIAL ASSEMBLY
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


4. (U) On May 10 in New York City, President Asif Ali Zadari
reaffirmed Pakistan,s resolve to defeat the Taliban.
Speaking before a group of Pakistani-Americans, the President
declared that every effort would be made to keep civilian
losses at a minimum while fighting extremism. "We don,t
want one million dead", he said, citing the killings that
occurred during anti-terror operations in Algeria and
Afghanistan as examples. He told the group that Al Qaeda was
like a monster and Pakistan would need international
assistance to eliminate it.


5. (C) Following the debate, PolOff spoke on May 12 with
Pakistan Muslim League (PML) parliamentarian Marvi Memon.
Memon spoke on the floor of the National Assembly early May
12 on behalf of her opposition party. From those remarks,
she stressed that her party completely supported the actions
of the Pakistan Army in Swat and would continue to support
actions "wherever there are extremists."


6. (C) Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) spokesman Siddiq
ul-Farooq told PolOff that while his party was not happy with
how the PPP-led GOP had made its decision to engage the Army
in Swat, preferring an All Parties Conference to form a
unanimous, consensus strategy, he deferred to the PML-N
leader Nawaz Sharif,s recent statement that his party would
look forward and (for now) support the Army offensive.
Ul-Farooq added the PML-N would support any actions against
those "who attack the Constitution and writ of the
government." Ul-Farooq was adamant: "We have no sympathy for
those who have displaced the people." He called on the Army

ISLAMABAD 00001025 002 OF 003


to "eradicate" the mercenaries and the "foreign hand" behind
the criminality in Swat. However, he warned, the PML-N was
only backing a "swift" campaign, which he defined as 4-6
weeks. Ul-Farooq encouraged the USG to support the GOP,s
decision at the diplomatic level, but further suggested that
our public support be kept to a minimum so that the PPP-led
GOP could avoid being accused of taking "the U.S.,s
dictation."


7. (C) A parliamentarian from the Awami National Party
(ANP),the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) ruling party,
told PolOff that his party was being overwhelmed by the issue
of IDPs, the focus of the special session of the National
Assembly. He expressed the hope that the session on May 12
would find some answers to the IDP issue.


8. (C) Partisan politics came into play during the sessions
when the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam Fazlur (JUI-F) party leader,
Fazlur Rehman, at one point walked out of the May 11 session
only to return again after being persuaded to do so by the PM
and the Minister of Interior, Rehman Malik. The ANP
parliamentarian accused the JUI-F of being "blackmailers" and
said that Fazlur Rehman walked out to squeeze more from the
government. In a public statement, Fazlur Rehman declared
that "despite being a government ally, the federal government
did not take us into confidence with regard to the launching
of the military operations in Swat and Malakand."


9. (C) A JUI-F parliamentarian told PolOff that it was wrong
for the country to use violence against its own people, and
said that most of the victims were innocent bystanders. He
asked how the Pakistan military could be successful in Swat
if America couldn,t fix Afghanistan using force. The
parliamentarian stressed that his party was not a supporter
of Sufi Mohammad, leader of the
Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM),or his
son-in-law Maulana Fazlullah, leader of the Tehkrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP)and that, indeed, their followers were a
minority. The JUI-F walked out of the session because the
military started its operations before all the political
players were taken into confidence. He welcomed the
in-camera session but said he had no hope that anything
positive will come out of it. The parliamentarian emphasized
that the GOP needs to focus on negotiations and confidence
building. The JUI-F will not/not pull out of the coalition
at this point because of military operations.

FROM PESHAWAR
- - - - - - -


10. (C) On the margins of a May 11 Consulate Peshawar
reception, multiple local contacts reinforced the point that
insufficient capacity at IDP registration centers is the most
immediate problem the government faces in managing the large
numbers of displaced residents flowing out of the northern
NWFP. Food and other supplies are available, but not enough
people are on hand to handle the mechanics of registration,
which is a prerequisite to receiving assistance. The
director of one of Peshawar,s local universities told PO
that his institution is sending senior students to lend
clerical support at the camps. UNHCR,s Peshawar
representative Mohammad Adar feared that the UN system would
not be able to cope in the coming weeks with the growing
numbers of IDPs. NWFP Social Welfare Minister Sitara Ayaz
expressed concern about water and sanitation. An outbreak of
disease in the camps, Ayaz noted, with the onset of summer
heat, could be devastating. Academic institutions in
northern NWFP, including Malakand University with 1600
students, have closed, leaving resident students stranded and
cut off from contact with their families. NWFP,s
universities are banding together to take care of these
students and are planning to disburse them into other
universities at least through the summer and cover tuition,
lodging and meals.


11. (C) NWFP Chief Minister Amir Haider Khan Hoti
accompanied PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif on a visit to an IDP
camp in Mardan - a Hoti family stronghold - on May 11 (reftel
B). NWFP PML-N president Pir Sabir Shah and local
journalists gave Consulate conflicting stories as to the

ISLAMABAD 00001025 003 OF 003


reasons for Sharif,s visit to the camp, but agreed that it
was a PML-N initiative that Hoti (affiliated with the ANP)
joined after being asked for NWFP government logistical and
security support for the visit. According to Pir Sabir Shah,
PML-N will set up a hundred-million rupee (1.25 million U.S.
dollars) fund for IDP relief efforts, with the aim of setting
up a camp of its own for the IDPs.


12. (C) PML-N is not the only entity looking to provide funds
directly to the IDPs. Consulate contacts praise the efforts
of al-Khidamat, charity wing of Jamiat e-Islami (JI) since
the beginning of the campaign in Buner in late April; it has
provided food, non-food items (NFIs),and other services such
as pairing up IDPs with suitable host families as an
alternative to entering a camp. Both PPP and PPP-Sherpao are
reportedly considering setting up direct assistance to the
IDPs as well. Press reports that spontaneous fundraising
drives have begun among Pakistanis to gather resources to
provide food and NFIs, leading the NWFP police to threaten a
crackdown against unregistered groups requesting donations
without providing accountability. Contacts in the police
assured Consulate that their primary concern in the crackdown
is the pocketing of donated funds by these organizations, not
their diversion to militants.

MILITARY OPERATIONS
--------------


13. (C) In Swat, the Pakistani military finally recaptured
the building in Saidu Sharif housing the offices of the
Malakand Division Commissioner, the Swat District
Coordinating Officer (DCO),and the Swat District Police
Officer (DPO). The building was burned and the records in
the office were destroyed, either in the fighting or by the
militants.


14. C) According to a Peshawar Consulate contact, in northern
Buner, the Frontier Corps peacefully occupied Pir Baba after
militants fled in the direction of Gul Qand; Sultanwas and
the passes to Swat remain unsecured.
PATTERSON