BHARAT BALLOT 09: UNDERSTANDING ANDHRA PRADESH: DEFYING

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SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: UNDERSTANDING ANDHRA PRADESH: DEFYING
PUNDITS AND EXIT POLLS

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1. SUMMARY: With voter turnout in Andhra Pradesh (AP)
significantly higher than the national average, the Congress
party defied the exit polls to increase its huge margin in the
Lok Sabha delegation from the state and win a simple majority in
the state assembly. The emergence of two new parties and a new
matrix of caste politics appear to be decisive factors in this
election. There is some indication that voters split their
vote, casting their ballot for one party in the parliamentary
contest and for a different party in the state assembly
election. This voting pattern represents a change in voter
behavior and bodes watching in the future to see whether it is a
one off or a trend. END SUMMARY.

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Congress Victorious: A Surprising Reprise
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2. No political analyst expected either a voter turnout of 72
percent (15 percent higher than the national average) or the
Congress party to reprise its remarkable victory of 2004 - when
it upset the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) to capture both the state
government and 29 Lok Sabha seats, the largest Congress
contingent of MPs from any state. Still Congress Chief Minister
(CM) Y S Rajasekhara Reddy (YSR) never wavered from his
prediction that in the 2009 concurrent national and state
elections his party would increase its national tally to 34 Lok
Sabha seats and that he would remain CM after Congress
candidates won 230 of the 295 seats in the Legislative Assembly.
After the votes were counted on May 16, it became obvious that
YSR knew the pulse of the people better than any analyst.
Overcoming the traditional anti-incumbency factor, he once again
`delivered Andhra Pradesh on a platter.' At the national level
the electorate chose Congress candidates for 33 of the state's
42 Lok Sabha seats. The remaining seats were split amongst 4
other parties: TDP - 6, Telangana Rashtra Samathi (TRS) - 2, and
the All India Majlis-Ittehadul-Muslimeen (MIM) - 1.


3. At the state level, 156 out of 294 Congress candidates won
in their district, which represents a loss of 28 seats for the
party. Still, this simple majority gives the Congress the
opportunity to form a state government without the necessity of
encumbering alliances. Even though the TDP doubled its seat
tally from 46 to 93 Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLA),
its `Grand Alliance' partners fared poorly. The TRS won a mere
10 of the 44 seats it contested (down from 26 in 2004). [NOTE:
Political observers also claim that the poor showing of the TRS
was the final blow to the Telangana-separatist movement. END
NOTE] The media widely described the performance of other
members as `dismal' - the CPI won four seats and the CPI(M) won
only a single one versus their previous tallies of six and nine
respectively. The new Praja Rajyam party also failed to meet
the initially high expectations for the party winning a mere 18
races statewide. Other parties to win seats in the Assembly
include, BJP - 2, Lok Satta - 1, Independents - 7.

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Caste in the Central Role
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4. Over the past 50 years, politics in AP has traditionally
revolved around two dominant rival castes/party nexuses - the
Reddy/Congress and Kamma/TDP combines. However, political
analysts observed that caste polarization became even more acute
in this election as a third grouping - an alignment of the Kapu
and Other Backward Class (OBC) communities - emerged in support
of Chiranjeevi's PRP. Other parties are also closely affiliated
with caste groups: the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is
closely identified with Velama caste; and both Communist parties
have a close affinity with the Kamma community who dominated the
parties prior to the birth of the TDP.


5. The Reddy community is politically dominant in 15 of the
state's 23 districts, including Kurnool, Anantapur and Chittoor
in the Rayalaseema region, Nalgonda, Medak, Warangal,
Mahbubnagar, Rangareddy, Nizamabad, Karimnagar and Adilabad in
the Telangana region, and Nellore, Guntur and Prakasam in

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Coastal Andhra. Academic and media interlocutors point out that
from the perspective of caste the emergence of the ideological
diverse pre-poll `Grand Alliance' - consisting of the TDP, TRS,
CPI, and CPI(M) - made electoral sense.


6. Wherever the PRP's attempt to consolidate the Kapu and OBC
vote banks behind a candidate was successful, the reported voter
turnout increased. This initiative was so vital to the new
party that Chiranjeevi boasted to the CDA about the PRP's
decision to put forward 104 OBC nominees for State Assembly
seats, almost twice that nominated by rival parties. He claimed
that the PRP had upped the ante and the results of this election
would force both the Congress and the TDP to also reserve at
least 100 seats for OBC candidates in future elections.


7. Political analysts also note that the emergence of the PRP
altered the standard vote bank equations. Chiranjeevi saw this
as the great strength of his party and as the primary reason why
all other parties would reach out to him after the vote is
counted. Just days before the votes were counted, AP Chief
Secretary P. Ramakanth Reddy quipped that `it's not clear who is
cutting into whose vote bank. Everyone draws solace from that
and predicts that a high turnout is good for them.'

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Predictions of a Hung Assembly Undone
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8. Prior to the vote count each main party continued to
publicly proclaim that they would win an outright majority of
seats in the State Legislative Assembly and form the next
government. Still, most political analysts believed, and exit
polls predicted, that a hung assembly would be the most likely
outcome with both Congress and the TDP-led `Grand Alliance'
bagging from 130-140 seats each and the PRP winning 30-40
contests. AP Speaker Suresh Reddy remarked that AP had not seen
a three-way race since the 1970's and that this `triangular
contest defied predictions.' TDP leader Naidu was more
circumspect noting that after the votes are counted `it may
still be possible that Congress doesn't have a majority.'


9. Naidu's hint of pessimism also foreshadowed events at the
national level. The `Grand Alliance' fractured in its support
for the Left-led Third Front even before the vote count. TRS
leader K. Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR) publicly called the Third
Front a `fiction' and declared that he would support the BJP-led
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the center in his quest to
achieve statehood for the Telangana region. Naidu informed the
CDA that the Left parties reacted strongly to the TRS's
realignment and suggested that the `Grand Alliance' drop the TRS
at the state level, but he convinced them to temper their
reaction until after the vote count as party's support could be
crucial to forming a majority there. Naidu wasn't concerned
about the TRS move, since KCR's decision to support the NDA at
the center precluded the possibility that he would support
Congress at the state level.

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The Votes Are Counted: Chiranjeevi Plays the Spoiler
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10. Once the votes were counted it became clear that the
YSR-led Congress benefited from the emergence of the PRP. At a
post-election party meeting, Naidu claimed that the Congress had
not won the election, but that new parties had cost the `Grand
Alliance' crucial anti-Congress votes. He said that split in
the oppositions ranks, which the `Grand Alliance' had tried to
overcome, gave the Congress an undisputed victory even though it
had received the smallest percentage of votes of any previous
state government.


11. Throughout the state, the Congress vote bank remained
intact while the Telugu Desam lost heavily to the PRP. Even
though PRP candidates lost deposits in 22 out of 40 Lok Sabha
seats contested, in many key Coastal Andhra constituencies they
polled more than 30,000 votes or one third of potential TDP

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voters. A prime example was the Nellore LS constituency where
the Congress candidate defeated the TDP candidate by 54,994
votes, while the PRP candidate took third polling more than
138,000 votes. In other constituencies Congress candidates won
by thin margins suggesting that the PRP tilted the results
(Mummidivaram - 1,851, Bapatla - 1,368, Serlingampalliy - 1,330,
Rajahumundry City - 1,304, Bodhan - 1,275, Alampur - 1,194,
Kollapur - 1,194, Jaggampet - 789, Vijayawada Central - 738,
Paderu - 587, Payakaraopet - 656, Nellimarla - 597, Pinapaka -
349, Tiruvur - 265, and Penamalur - 153). Many pundits are
proclaiming the end of the party since it did not live up to
initial expectations and only won 17 MLA contests and not a
single seat in the Lok Sabha. Still, Chiranjeevi plans to move
ahead and look to the next election. Importantly, with almost
15 percent of the vote across the state, Chiranjeevi's party
qualifies for recognition and can retain its symbol.


12. At the state level, the Praja Rajyam delivered a death blow
to the `Grand Alliance.' Even though the TDP doubled its seat
tally from 46 to 93 MLAs, its TRS won a mere 10 of the 44 seats
it contested (down from 26 in 2004). [NOTE: Political observers
also claim that the poor showing of the TRS was the final blow
to the Telangana-separatist movement. END NOTE] The media widely
described the performance other coalition members as `dismal' -
the CPI won four seats and the CPI(M) won only a single one
versus their previous tallies of six and nine respectively.

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The Votes Are Counted: Two Players Emerge From the Sidelines
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13. Even as the BJP candidates lost 267 of 269 Legislative
Assembly contests and dashed all hope of becoming a `decisive
force' in the state, two smaller parties showed they could
significantly impact the final outcome. The MIM not only
retained its hereditary Parliamentary seat from Hyderabad, but
it emerged as an important `unofficial' Congress ally. Running
in a secure constituency - Asaduddin Owaisi claimed his seat by
securing 110,768 more votes than TDP candidate and Siasat
Editor, Zahid Ali Khan - allowed the MIM candidate to campaign
`in favor of the Congress' in several Muslim-populated towns in
Telangana and Coastal Andhra. Political analysts widely credit
Owaisi with moving Muslim votes to the Congress en masse. This
countered the TDP's strategy of distancing the party from prior
alliance with the BJP, which Naidu believed was a key factor in
the 2004 Congress victory.


14. The Lok Satta Party - another new entrant formed by
Jayaprakash Narayan, a retired IAS officer turned social and
political activist - also had an impressive first showing.
Though the party was only victorious in one state Assembly race,
it was able to garner significant vote share (over 10 percent)
in urban constituencies with its advocacy for clean politics and
promises to usher in a new political culture. This favored
Congress by cutting into the urban anti-incumbency vote.
Importantly, Lok Satta candidates polled more votes than the BJP
in all the five Hyderabad constituencies. Elsewhere in the
state almost five percent of rural voters voted for the party
and political analysts believe it now has a sufficient base of
support to build a statewide organization.

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The Votes Are Counted: Splitting Tickets
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15. One question that has caught the attention of media is the
disparity between the Congress party's continued dominance in
Lok Sabha elections and the simple (but lesser) majority it won
in the state. While almost 39 percent of voters cast ballots
for the Congress candidate in parliamentary elections, the
TDP-led coalition only combined for 34 percent and PRP polled
more than 15 percent. [NOTE: The BJP only took 4 percent of the
vote and the BSP less than one percent. END NOTE] However, in
the Assembly polls, Congress only received 36 percent, the TDP
26 percent, TRS 5 percent, CPI(M) 2 percent, and the CPI 1
percent.

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16. Citing the poll numbers most media credited the splintering
of the anti-Congress vote between the `Grand Alliance' and the
PRP as the primary factor. However, an academic interlocutor
noted that the mismatch could be due to the fact that only the
Congress had a national presence and `agenda' in this concurrent
election. For example, in the Visakhapatnam East constituency,
the TDP Assembly candidate polled 44,233 votes, but the TDP Lok
Sabha candidate only garnered 34,367 votes. Given this
interpretation, the three percent gap between the Congress
party's parliamentary and Assembly results indicate that some
voters split their ballot and voted for continuity at the Center
even as they based their Assembly votes on local issues. The
Hindu wrote (May 18, 2009) that, `the fact that 14 [state]
ministers have tasted defeat sends a strong message that the
voters, intelligent as they are, preferred a national party but
are not happy with its functioning at the state.'

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All Support the 1-2-3
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17. Prior to the vote counting both Naidu and Chiranjeevi
indicated general, but necessarily unqualified, support for the
U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement. Chiranjeevi
told the CDA that prior to the confidence vote last July, he was
approached about his position by some of the sitting MP's who
later joined the PRP. He told them he had `no objection' to the
agreement, but that they should cast their votes prior to
leaving their parties to join the PRP. Naidu predicted that
there would be no change in foreign policy no matter which
coalition formed the central government. While he didn't
directly voice either reservation or support for the agreement,
he did note that the Left parties had a visceral hatred for the
previous U.S. administration and then changed tracks to talk
about how even they had had to `fall in line' on issues that
promoted development and created wealth that could later be
distributed to their constituents.

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Local Politics Carries the Day: Except at the Center
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18. COMMENT: The strong showing by two new parties may indicate
that the trend towards coalition governments that include small
regional (or in this case sub-regional) parties has started to
make its way to the state assembly level. Another trend to
emerge is voters splitting their ballot between different
parties in national and state contests. No matter how these
factors play out in future elections, one constant will remain -
local issues, especially development and delivery of social
welfare programs, will continue to be the focus of the
electorate and, therefore, of the politicians and their promises
at election time. As if on cue, immediately after the results
were final Congress CM YSR Reddy announced that he would assign
top priority for five ongoing irrigation projects in the state.
END COMMENT.
KEUR